brownbear932008
Well-known member
I have also noticed some things as well , I will not mention here. Sometimes it's best to keep your mouth shut before one sticks his foot in it making his chances even less.
MT- M/S/G results 26
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brownbear932008
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Best explanation I've seen yet. Those numbers seem correct but I'm no math whiz here.You're wrong. I just read on a hunting forum that the more bonus points I have the greater my odds are, probably nearing 10% by now.
4.7% of those with max points drew. That's FAR from 4.7% draw odds. Here is a table with the odds divided by the over 3 Million entries, once you account for all the other folks with bonus points. Someone correct me if I did this incorrectly.
Number of Points Number of Applications Number of Successes % Successful Number of Entries Actual Odds 0 2864 0 0.0% 1 3692 0 0.0% 2 3363 1 0.0% 3 2996 4 0.1% 4 2555 3 0.1% 5 2287 3 0.1% 6 1898 12 0.6% 7 1688 5 0.3% 8 1506 7 0.5% 9 1337 8 0.6% 10 1119 7 0.6% 11 1038 8 0.8% 12 984 14 1.4% 13 608 3 0.5% 14 553 10 1.8% 15 519 9 1.7% 16 494 7 1.4% 17 482 7 1.5% 18 427 8 1.9% 19 402 18 4.5% 20 383 15 3.9% 21 380 14 3.7% 22 374 16 4.3% 23 370 10 2.7% 24 465 19 4.1% 25 490 23 4.7% Totals: 33274 True Random Odds: 0.003005%
Yes, technically, you have increased your odds by .020611% at max points over the guy with 0 and .017638% over a true random draw. Randy and others have gone over this numerous times but folks still maintain hope in systems that are mathematically disingenuous to everyone participating.
True random, OIL, money up front is the way to go. Bonus point system better than preference point as we all still have a chance. Not trying to shame or discourage anyone, just illustrate how dismal the odds really are and how special those tags really are.
Take this with a grain of salt, I could be mistaken, after all I put in for North Dakota mule deer for 5 years before I realized they aren't even allocating tags to NR in the drawing.
Sincerest congrats to all those who drew.
BuzzH
Well-known member
Right. Anyone that thinks they have 4% odds of drawing a moose tag in Montana needs to drop the crack pipe and take a stats class.You're wrong. I just read on a hunting forum that the more bonus points I have the greater my odds are, probably nearing 10% by now.
4.7% of those with max points drew. That's FAR from 4.7% draw odds. Here is a table with the odds divided by the over 3 Million entries, once you account for all the other folks with bonus points. Someone correct me if I did this incorrectly.
Number of Points Number of Applications Number of Successes % Successful Number of Entries Actual Odds 0 2864 0 0.0% 1 3692 0 0.0% 2 3363 1 0.0% 3 2996 4 0.1% 4 2555 3 0.1% 5 2287 3 0.1% 6 1898 12 0.6% 7 1688 5 0.3% 8 1506 7 0.5% 9 1337 8 0.6% 10 1119 7 0.6% 11 1038 8 0.8% 12 984 14 1.4% 13 608 3 0.5% 14 553 10 1.8% 15 519 9 1.7% 16 494 7 1.4% 17 482 7 1.5% 18 427 8 1.9% 19 402 18 4.5% 20 383 15 3.9% 21 380 14 3.7% 22 374 16 4.3% 23 370 10 2.7% 24 465 19 4.1% 25 490 23 4.7% Totals: 33274 True Random Odds: 0.003005%
Yes, technically, you have increased your odds by .020611% at max points over the guy with 0 and .017638% over a true random draw. Randy and others have gone over this numerous times but folks still maintain hope in systems that are mathematically disingenuous to everyone participating.
True random, OIL, money up front is the way to go. Bonus point system better than preference point as we all still have a chance. Not trying to shame or discourage anyone, just illustrate how dismal the odds really are and how special those tags really are.
Take this with a grain of salt, I could be mistaken, after all I put in for North Dakota mule deer for 5 years before I realized they aren't even allocating tags to NR in the drawing
Sincerest congrats to all those who drew.
Forkyfinder
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The total number of successes is 224 - so youd have to multiply the odds you calculated by that to have something to compare to the drawing results.You're wrong. I just read on a hunting forum that the more bonus points I have the greater my odds are, probably nearing 10% by now.
4.7% of those with max points drew. That's FAR from 4.7% draw odds. Here is a table with the odds divided by the over 3 Million entries, once you account for all the other folks with bonus points. Someone correct me if I did this incorrectly.
Number of Points Number of Applications Number of Successes % Successful Number of Entries Actual Odds 0 2864 0 0.0% 1 3692 0 0.0% 2 3363 1 0.0% 3 2996 4 0.1% 4 2555 3 0.1% 5 2287 3 0.1% 6 1898 12 0.6% 7 1688 5 0.3% 8 1506 7 0.5% 9 1337 8 0.6% 10 1119 7 0.6% 11 1038 8 0.8% 12 984 14 1.4% 13 608 3 0.5% 14 553 10 1.8% 15 519 9 1.7% 16 494 7 1.4% 17 482 7 1.5% 18 427 8 1.9% 19 402 18 4.5% 20 383 15 3.9% 21 380 14 3.7% 22 374 16 4.3% 23 370 10 2.7% 24 465 19 4.1% 25 490 23 4.7% Totals: 33274 True Random Odds: 0.003005%
Yes, technically, you have increased your odds by .020611% at max points over the guy with 0 and .017638% over a true random draw. Randy and others have gone over this numerous times but folks still maintain hope in systems that are mathematically disingenuous to everyone participating.
True random, OIL, money up front is the way to go. Bonus point system better than preference point as we all still have a chance. Not trying to shame or discourage anyone, just illustrate how dismal the odds really are and how special those tags really are.
Take this with a grain of salt, I could be mistaken, after all I put in for North Dakota mule deer for 5 years before I realized they aren't even allocating tags to NR in the drawing
Sincerest congrats to all those who drew.
You would have increased your chances by (0.020611 x 224) 4.6%. Technically marginally higher because points disappear almost every permit.
Edit: youd have increased odds by the difference. So pts - random (4.6 - 0.003005 x 224) = 3.9%
Stone_Ice_1
Well-known member
Starting to realize the battle I am fighting here.
Overall probability of drawing a moose tag in 2025 was 0.69% among all applicants. This is found by taking the number of applicants (33274) and dividing it by successes (231). This isn't theory, this is what actually happened in the draw.
If you had max points in 2025 you had a 4.69% chance at drawing. 490 applied and 23 drew it. The percentages go down from there depending on the number of points you had.
I will say it one more time. Those numbers are what actually happened in the draw.
So if it was completely random in 2025 every person would have had a 0.69% chance of drawing a moose tag. With the point system it is easy to see that having more points gives you a much higher chance at drawing.
Some of you get it, some of you don't. I do have a graduate degree in exactly this topic.
Overall probability of drawing a moose tag in 2025 was 0.69% among all applicants. This is found by taking the number of applicants (33274) and dividing it by successes (231). This isn't theory, this is what actually happened in the draw.
If you had max points in 2025 you had a 4.69% chance at drawing. 490 applied and 23 drew it. The percentages go down from there depending on the number of points you had.
I will say it one more time. Those numbers are what actually happened in the draw.
So if it was completely random in 2025 every person would have had a 0.69% chance of drawing a moose tag. With the point system it is easy to see that having more points gives you a much higher chance at drawing.
Some of you get it, some of you don't. I do have a graduate degree in exactly this topic.
PoleX
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Trying to see if I understand the point your trying to make; as people apply and continue to apply year after year the total points cumulatively increases. If we look at total points from year 2000-now the denominator has increased significantly and exponentially at that, while the tags issued has declined significantly. That's the problem with any point system. The silver lining is; if your going to do a point system, randomizing success vs preference is the preferred by most.
SAJ-99
Well-known member
Can't you just sum the "actual odds" and determine the impact of squaring? Odds of a coin flip or die roll add to 100% for all possible outcomes. Your total for Acutal odds column was over 180%. This shows the distortion squaring has. A Single applicants true odds are dependent on the points of the all other applicants.You're wrong. I just read on a hunting forum that the more bonus points I have the greater my odds are, probably nearing 10% by now.
4.7% of those with max points drew. That's FAR from 4.7% draw odds. Here is a table with the odds divided by the over 3 Million entries, once you account for all the other folks with bonus points. Someone correct me if I did this incorrectly.
Number of Points Number of Applications Number of Successes % Successful Number of Entries Actual Odds 0 2864 0 0.0% 1 3692 0 0.0% 2 3363 1 0.0% 3 2996 4 0.1% 4 2555 3 0.1% 5 2287 3 0.1% 6 1898 12 0.6% 7 1688 5 0.3% 8 1506 7 0.5% 9 1337 8 0.6% 10 1119 7 0.6% 11 1038 8 0.8% 12 984 14 1.4% 13 608 3 0.5% 14 553 10 1.8% 15 519 9 1.7% 16 494 7 1.4% 17 482 7 1.5% 18 427 8 1.9% 19 402 18 4.5% 20 383 15 3.9% 21 380 14 3.7% 22 374 16 4.3% 23 370 10 2.7% 24 465 19 4.1% 25 490 23 4.7% Totals: 33274 True Random Odds: 0.003005%
Yes, technically, you have increased your odds by .020611% at max points over the guy with 0 and .017638% over a true random draw. Randy and others have gone over this numerous times but folks still maintain hope in systems that are mathematically disingenuous to everyone participating.
True random, OIL, money up front is the way to go. Bonus point system better than preference point as we all still have a chance. Not trying to shame or discourage anyone, just illustrate how dismal the odds really are and how special those tags really are.
Take this with a grain of salt, I could be mistaken, after all I put in for North Dakota mule deer for 5 years before I realized they aren't even allocating tags to NR in the drawing
Sincerest congrats to all those who drew.
Big Sky Guy
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IDK now, maybe they do based on @Forkyfinder 's correction (I got 231 total tags so multiply the individual odds by that)? I also don't know about this since it's ALL units combined and I've only ever analyzed it for single units. I also noticed I was not accounting for the plus one on top of the square but that had very minimal impact.
| Number of Points | Number of Applications | Number of Successes | % Successful | Number of Entries | Actual Odds (1 tag) | Actual Odds (231 tags) |
| 0 | 2864 | 0 | 0.0% | 2864 | 0.000033% | 0.007551% |
| 1 | 3692 | 0 | 0.0% | 7384 | 0.000065% | 0.015102% |
| 2 | 3363 | 1 | 0.0% | 16815 | 0.000163% | 0.037756% |
| 3 | 2996 | 4 | 0.1% | 29960 | 0.000327% | 0.075512% |
| 4 | 2555 | 3 | 0.1% | 43435 | 0.000556% | 0.128370% |
| 5 | 2287 | 3 | 0.1% | 59462 | 0.000850% | 0.196331% |
| 6 | 1898 | 12 | 0.6% | 70226 | 0.001210% | 0.279395% |
| 7 | 1688 | 5 | 0.3% | 84400 | 0.001634% | 0.377560% |
| 8 | 1506 | 7 | 0.5% | 97890 | 0.002125% | 0.490828% |
| 9 | 1337 | 8 | 0.6% | 109634 | 0.002681% | 0.619199% |
| 10 | 1119 | 7 | 0.6% | 113019 | 0.003302% | 0.762672% |
| 11 | 1038 | 8 | 0.8% | 126636 | 0.003988% | 0.921247% |
| 12 | 984 | 14 | 1.4% | 142680 | 0.004740% | 1.094925% |
| 13 | 608 | 3 | 0.5% | 103360 | 0.005557% | 1.283705% |
| 14 | 553 | 10 | 1.8% | 108941 | 0.006440% | 1.487587% |
| 15 | 519 | 9 | 1.7% | 117294 | 0.007388% | 1.706572% |
| 16 | 494 | 7 | 1.4% | 126958 | 0.008401% | 1.940659% |
| 17 | 482 | 7 | 1.5% | 139780 | 0.009480% | 2.189849% |
| 18 | 427 | 8 | 1.9% | 138775 | 0.010624% | 2.454141% |
| 19 | 402 | 18 | 4.5% | 145524 | 0.011833% | 2.733536% |
| 20 | 383 | 15 | 3.9% | 153583 | 0.013108% | 3.028033% |
| 21 | 380 | 14 | 3.7% | 167960 | 0.014449% | 3.337632% |
| 22 | 374 | 16 | 4.3% | 181390 | 0.015854% | 3.662334% |
| 23 | 370 | 10 | 2.7% | 196100 | 0.017325% | 4.002138% |
| 24 | 465 | 19 | 4.1% | 268305 | 0.018862% | 4.357044% |
| 25 | 490 | 23 | 4.7% | 306740 | 0.020463% | 4.727053% |
| Totals: | 33274 | 231 | 3059115 | |||
| True Random Odds: | 0.003005% |
Big Sky Guy
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Valid point. None of my columns add to 100%, even with correcting for the number of tags issued. Doing something wrong
, I would still think the total odds should add up to 100% even with squaring?
Forkyfinder
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This is how ive determined it previously - being too cheap for gohunt my whole life. Sorry i totaled incorrectly - 231. Although im mixed on bonus point systems i feel montanas is best.Valid point. None of my columns add to 100%, even with correcting for the number of tags issued. Doing something wrong
Seperately you wouldnt be able to add the "odds" to 100 because those odds arent the result of "1 draw"
SAJ-99
Well-known member
I picked an example that of a Goat tag that only had 1 permit. It didn't add to 100% either. So now I hate you, because you have made me curious and I want to create a spreadsheet to show how "draw odds" in a squared system might change based on different scenarios.
buffybr
Well-known member
Thanks, I appreciate that. I welcome all the help that I can get. It looks like your neighbors trees need a little trimming.
My view of the Bridgers is just a little corner of the south end.
I do, however, keep track of the elk in my neighbors pasture...
406dn
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A long time ago, I realized that realistically, if I wanted to hunt moose in Montana, the odds were far better, if you tried for a cow tag. That is the strategy that I've used, since then. Whatever the odds might have been, I've now drawn four tags to hunt a cow moose. This last time, I did not have very many bonus points, since I had to sit out for seven years after the third time I drew a tag.
While talking to a friend at the gym this morning, I mentioned that maybe I'd target a calf. The first moose I killed turned out to be a young bull, with antlers protruding a half inch, or so. He was roughly the size of a rag horn bull elk. That is the best game meat, I've ever eaten. The second moose was an older cow. She was noticeably larger than the previous moose. She did not yield the same quality of meat. The third tag, I ate, since the only cow I could find was living inside a forty acre expanse of a beaver pond ecosystem. I did not want to dress a moose standing in waist deep water, so she was safe from me.
Since reading in this thread about the overall decline in tags, I wonder why there are any moose cow tags issued. Part of my rationale to consider a calf, is that the cow is more likely to make it to next year, than the calf is. There is enough time to think about it.
While talking to a friend at the gym this morning, I mentioned that maybe I'd target a calf. The first moose I killed turned out to be a young bull, with antlers protruding a half inch, or so. He was roughly the size of a rag horn bull elk. That is the best game meat, I've ever eaten. The second moose was an older cow. She was noticeably larger than the previous moose. She did not yield the same quality of meat. The third tag, I ate, since the only cow I could find was living inside a forty acre expanse of a beaver pond ecosystem. I did not want to dress a moose standing in waist deep water, so she was safe from me.
Since reading in this thread about the overall decline in tags, I wonder why there are any moose cow tags issued. Part of my rationale to consider a calf, is that the cow is more likely to make it to next year, than the calf is. There is enough time to think about it.
I think folks are getting hung up on the 4.7%. I believe this is based on 33,xxx applicants with 3,xxx,xxx points applying for 231 tags. This is not how the draw system works (33,xxx people applying for 231 tags).
I am ready to be slapped up along side the head.
I am ready to be slapped up along side the head.
buffybr
Well-known member
When I drew my previous goat tag in 1978 I shot my billy near the top of the mountain that took me 3 hours to climb in -5* F temperature and knee deep snow. Early season scouting w/o snow I could climb that mountain in about an hour.
In the years immediately following my hunt, 4 of my friends all shot their goats in the same drainage that I shot mine, only they all shot their goats within a couple hundred yards of where we all had parked.
You guys need to ignore Buzz’s delivery. He is right. You all are thinking with common sense; probability and statistics are much more complicated. Any way you slice it your odds are terrible but they are much worse if you are a NR.
Forkyfinder
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Yeah. The more people who ignore it the better.
Gerald Martin
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Myth.
BuzzH
Well-known member
Nope, no individual odds are close to 4%.
All those columns are showing is the number of applicants that applied in each point pool divided by the number of tags issued in that point pool.
Individually, any single applicant is not just competing for a tag with those in the lower point pools, but also those IN their point pool.
The way to calculate true draw odds for an individual applicant is to divide their squared point total by the total number of squared points issued to all applicants for that particular unit.
You won't be finding odds of 4.7%. Fact.
That is, unless anyone believes that my sheep odds in 2024 were 3.7%...which is total horseshit, not even remotely close to that.
BIGHORN SHEEP LICENSE 261-20 NONRESIDENT 23 27 1 3.7
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5yearcoueshunter
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Your math works out to me. Again, this is an assumption that all tags were lumped into 1 hunt code. But this is exactly how I would calculate odds at the individual hunt level.
