MT- M/S/G results 26

[Dave N]

Can we just agree that they suck?

 

[BuzzH]

Can we just agree that they suck?

Oh no, the odds are 4-10%, thats why they haven't drawn a tag in 26 years.

 

[5yearcoueshunter]

I don't care...there are no bull moose applicants on planet earth that have 4% odds in Montana.

No idea how you're figuring that. But maybe you're just using a discouragement tactic. LOL

 

[Big Sky Guy]

Nope, no individual odds are close to 4%.

All those columns are showing is the number of applicants that applied in each point pool divided by the number of tags issued in that point pool.

Individually, any single applicant is not just competing for a tag with those in the lower point pools, but also those IN their point pool.

The way to calculate true draw odds for an individual applicant is to divide their squared point total by the total number of squared points issued to all applicants for that particular unit.

You won't be finding odds of 4.7%. Fact.

That is, unless anyone believes that my sheep odds in 2024 were 3.7%...which is total horseshit, not even remotely close to that.

BIGHORN SHEEP LICENSE 261-20 NONRESIDENT 23 27 1 3.7

Hmm, that’s what I did in the column for 1 tag but then when you account that they gave out 231 tags don’t you apply those odds by 231?

 

[Forkyfinder]

I don't care...there are no bull moose applicants on planet earth that have 4% odds in Montana.

X unit im not providing

68xxx bonus point "entries"
12 tags
1088 applicants

Someone with 26 points has - 677 entries / 68xxx * 12 permits = better than you said %

But okay.

 

[BuzzH]

Nope, no individual odds are close to 4%.

All those columns are showing is the number of applicants that applied in each point pool divided by the number of tags issued in that point pool.

Individually, any single applicant is not just competing for a tag with those in the lower point pools, but also those IN their point pool.

The way to calculate true draw odds for an individual applicant is to divide their squared point total by the total number of squared points issued to all applicants for that particular unit.

You won't be finding odds of 4.7%. Fact.

That is, unless anyone believes that my sheep odds in 2024 were 3.7%...which is total horseshit, not even remotely close to that.

BIGHORN SHEEP LICENSE 261-20 NONRESIDENT 23 27 1 3.7

For the slow at math...when I drew MT sheep in 2024 I had 23 points, there were 27 people in my point pool, there was 1 tag issued in that point pool...which equals, 3.7% of the people in that point pool drew that 1 sheep tag....ME.

Here were my draw results.

There were a total of 120,740 squared bonus points from all NR applicants that year.

There were 57,190 squared bonus points for Residents that year.

So, total number of squared bonus points 177,930 issued (NR+R)

I owned 530 of those squared bonus points.

Advanced 4th grade math...530/177930 x 100=.29% odds of one of my squared points being picked.

That was my odds of drawing a sheep tag in Montana in 2024 .29 percent...pretty F-ing far from 3.7% that showed up in the stats that most are using in this ridiculous squared bonus points discussion.

Do the same with any moose unit in the state and try to tell me someone has 4-10% odds with their max bonus points squared...no way.

 

[5yearcoueshunter]

For the slow at math...when I drew MT sheep in 2024 I had 23 points, there were 27 people in my point pool, there was 1 tag issued in that point pool...which equals, 3.7% of the people in that point pool drew that 1 sheep tag....ME.

Here were my draw results.

There were a total of 120,740 squared bonus points from all NR applicants that year.

There were 57,190 squared bonus points for Residents that year.

So, total number of squared bonus points 177,930 issued.

I owned 530 of those.

Advanced 4th grade math...530/177930 x 100=.29% odds of one of my squared points being picked.

That was my odds of drawing a sheep tag in Montana in 2024 .29 percent...pretty F-ing far from 3.7% that showed up in the stats that most are using in this ridiculous squared bonus points discussion.

Buzz, so there was 177,930 squared bonus points for the hunt code you applied for? And for that hunt code, there was only 1 NR tag available? If your answer is yes to those, then your odds look correct.

 

[BuzzH]

X unit im not providing

68xxx bonus point "entries"
12 tags
1088 applicants

Someone with 26 points has - 677 entries / 68xxx * 12 permits = better than you said %

But okay.

Clearly you have had ZERO statistics and probability classes...unbelieveable.

Why in the actual F would you multiply by 12, not how it works.

 

[BuzzH]

Buzz, so there was 177,930 squared bonus points for the hunt code you applied for? And for that hunt code, there was only 1 NR tag available? If your answer is yes to those, then your odds look correct.

There is no guarantee of a NR tag at all...but up to 10% of the REGION quota can go to NR hunters. So NR could have drawn 0-3 of the tags.

I'm about to give away a trade secret, when NR can apply for a sheep tag in a unit, as a Resident, you would be a fool to apply for that unit.

This illustrates why when I drew 261...almost a 2-1 advantage for the 3 random numbers to be plucked from the NR side of the draw. Assuming there were at least 30 tags in region 2 that year (probably not) all 3 of the tags could have gone to NR's in 261 that year...and they were at a 2-1 advantage to do so.

Residents got lucky and beat the odds to draw 2 of the 3 tags.

 

[5yearcoueshunter]

Clearly you have had ZERO statistics and probability classes...unbelieveable.

Why in the actual F would you multiply by 12, not how it works.

I do have no experience in statistics and probability. So how do you factor in the 12 permits in the equation?

 

[BuzzH]

I do have no experience in statistics and probability. So how do you factor in the 12 permits in the equation?

So the first person plucked, you take his remaining numbers out of the draw. So in my case (assuming I was plucked first), my lucky number, plus the remaining 529 are gone.

177,930-530=177,400 remaining squared bonus points.

The next tag drawn would have (their total squared bonus points/177,400x100)....that would be their true odds of being drawn for the second tag.

 

[Gerald Martin]

I’m no official statistician but by my calculations the only actual odds that affect my drawing percentage is the amount of tags available in the unit I applied for, the total amount of bonus points for all applicants for that unit and the total amount of bonus points I hold when I apply for the unit. Everything else other than that is irrelevant in determining my drawing odds.

 

[5yearcoueshunter]

So the first person plucked, you take his remaining numbers out of the draw. So in my case (assuming I was plucked first), my lucky number, plus the remaining 529 are gone.

177,930-530=177,400 remaining squared bonus points.

The next tag drawn would have (their total squared bonus points/177,400x100)....that would be their true odds of being drawn for the second tag.

Ok, I see what you're doing there. So if that's true, a lot of hunts would be better for even the top point holders if there was no point system. lol

Actual Moose hunt in MT: 12 permits
Applicants: 978
12/978 = 1.2% draw odds (no points)

25 point holder - 626 squared points (chances)
Total squared points from all applicants - 65,238
626/65,238 = .96%

 

[BuzzH]

Ok, I see what you're doing there. So if that's true, a lot of hunts would be better for even the top point holders if there was no point system. lol

Actual Moose hunt in MT: 12 permits
Applicants: 978
12/978 = 1.2% draw odds (no points)

25 point holder - 626 squared points (chances)
Total squared points from all applicants - 65,238
626/65,238 = .96%

Bingo Gringo...

 

[5yearcoueshunter]

So the first person plucked, you take his remaining numbers out of the draw. So in my case (assuming I was plucked first), my lucky number, plus the remaining 529 are gone.

177,930-530=177,400 remaining squared bonus points.

The next tag drawn would have (their total squared bonus points/177,400x100)....that would be their true odds of being drawn for the second tag.

I guess AI doesn't know statistics either

 

[BuzzH]

I guess AI doesn't know statistics either

View attachment 408070

Each number picked is an independent event. Like an individual roll of a dice.

Which is another drawing fallacy that if you have 10% odds you should draw a tag once every 10 years.

Not how that works either.

The only other drawing stat that matters to me is your odds are zero 100% of the time if you don't apply.

 

[huntandfly]

What if I don’t care about math and just enjoy lighting money on fire? Am I in the right place?

 

[cgasner1]

What if I don’t care about math and just enjoy lighting money on fire? Am I in the right place?

No. Coke is more enjoyable and easier to make friends with. Everyone hates you when you have a moose tag in your pocket. Try having a pocket full of that

 

[huntandfly]

No. Coke is more enjoyable and easier to make friends with. Everyone hates you when you have a moose tag in your pocket. Try having a pocket full of that

I would have the cartel after me if I dedicated my whole application budget to that venture

 

[5yearcoueshunter]

Each number picked is an independent event. Like an individual roll of a dice.

Which is another drawing fallacy that if you have 10% odds you should draw a tag once every 10 years.

Not how that works either.

The only other drawing stat that matters to me is your odds are zero 100% of the time if you don't apply.

Yeah, that's totally true about the 10% meaning once every ten years. Each year is independent, so you have a 10% chance every year.

I don't quite agree with your assessment about each number picked is an individual event. In that example I gave, the 625 points/apps are placed in a list with the other 64,613 and given a random number. You need 1 of your 625 apps to be in the top 12. I know GoHunt and AI both says you have an 11% chance of that happening and you say you have a .96% chance of that happening. No idea lol