MT- M/S/G results 26

[Steve O]

I should have near max bonus points for all 3 species. In college, however, being poor for a few years and not knowing the rules, I didn’t apply 2 years in a row and at the time, you lost all bonus points if you did that. What a bummer that was. I reached out about getting them back now that the rules have changed and they said I was SOL. The price of admission was small but I was young and dumb.

On the bright side for you, having max bonus points offers ZERO actual advantage in the draw, resident or non. People don’t understand when you are dealing with percentages starting with a decimal you are universally screwed.

But you still have more of a chance than someone not applying.

 

[NoWiser]

On the bright side for you, having max bonus points offers ZERO actual advantage in the draw, resident or non. People don’t understand when you are dealing with percentages starting with a decimal you are universally screwed.

But you still have more of a chance than someone not applying.

That’s simply not true. If someone told you that you could go into the draw with 625 chances or one chance, you’d be a fool to go in with one chance. Are your odds still extremely low with 25 bonus points? Yes. But they are significantly better than someone with one point.

 

[Big Sky Guy]

the rules have changed and they said I was SOL.

 

[Steve O]

That’s simply not true. If someone told you that you could go into the draw with 625 chances or one chance, you’d be a fool to go in with one chance. Are your odds still extremely low with 25 bonus points? Yes. But they are significantly better than someone with one point.

Let’s use the 300,000 bonus point number that was thrown out in the simplest form possible:

1/300,000=0.00000333

625/300,000=0.00208

I hate to break this to everyone but those numbers in real life round to ZERO…you can nitpick all you want but realistically you are not going to strategize yourself into a drawing a sheep, moose, or goat tag. And that is not actual data, the real numbers and formulas are much more complicated and depressing if one is convinced those are numbers are not both zero.

I’m not saying this to discourage anyone from applying. Just be realistic. Any sheep, moose, or goat tag is (in my case) a huge blessing or (for others) a great stroke of luck.

I drew an Utah mountain goat tag which did have simple odds. 1 in 2412.

I drew an Alaska bull musk ox hunt for fall. Odds in the 0.XX%

Both of those were drawn in the same year so factor those odds together…

I drew an AZ Desert Bighorn tag as a NR with less than max points; those odds are so small one cannot comprehend the amount of zeros.

I have many other examples of more draws but also raffles.

I did not go into any of those draws (or raffles) with plans of drawing; to do so is foolish. I went in with hope and a prayer putting in for where and what I would like to hunt and see.

Anything else, when dealing with differences in hundredths or thousandths of a percentage point, is spinning one’s wheels.