MT- M/S/G results 26

[Big Sky Guy]

the rules have changed and they said I was SOL.

 

[Steve O]

That’s simply not true. If someone told you that you could go into the draw with 625 chances or one chance, you’d be a fool to go in with one chance. Are your odds still extremely low with 25 bonus points? Yes. But they are significantly better than someone with one point.

Let’s use the 300,000 bonus point number that was thrown out in the simplest form possible:

1/300,000=0.00000333

625/300,000=0.00208

I hate to break this to everyone but those numbers in real life round to ZERO…you can nitpick all you want but realistically you are not going to strategize yourself into a drawing a sheep, moose, or goat tag. And that is not actual data, the real numbers and formulas are much more complicated and depressing if one is convinced those are numbers are not both zero.

I’m not saying this to discourage anyone from applying. Just be realistic. Any sheep, moose, or goat tag is (in my case) a huge blessing or (for others) a great stroke of luck.

I drew an Utah mountain goat tag which did have simple odds. 1 in 2412.

I drew an Alaska bull musk ox hunt for fall. Odds in the 0.XX%

Both of those were drawn in the same year so factor those odds together…

I drew an AZ Desert Bighorn tag as a NR with less than max points; those odds are so small one cannot comprehend the amount of zeros.

I have many other examples of more draws but also raffles.

I did not go into any of those draws (or raffles) with plans of drawing; to do so is foolish. I went in with hope and a prayer putting in for where and what I would like to hunt and see.

Anything else, when dealing with differences in hundredths or thousandths of a percentage point, is spinning one’s wheels.

 

[Point Creep]

0.000015 > 0.000010 regardless of how small the numbers are.

With 10 bonus points, my statistical odds of drawing are higher of drawing than somebody with 9 or fewer points trying for the same permit.

In 2012 a pal drew all three permits, Moose, sheep and mountain goat, all in the same unit that same year. I have another friend and previous work collegue who is a math guy, whose entire living has been setting payout tables for poker machines. He figured out what my other friends statistical odds were of hitting all three permits that year, taking into consideration the points he had and others who'd applied. The first two numbers I list above are in that wheelhouse.

Still, the worst thing you can do, is not apply because those tiny numbers are still bigger than zero, regardless of how you can "round".

 

[Wildabeest]

But you still have more of a less horrible chance than someone not applying.

FIFY.

 

[antlerradar]

That a jab at @sclancy27 ?

no, that was telling a kid that probably never got a B in his life, don't sell yourself short.

 

[BuzzH]

0.000015 > 0.000010 regardless of how small the numbers are.

With 10 bonus points, my statistical odds of drawing are higher of drawing than somebody with 9 or fewer points trying for the same permit.

Still, the worst thing you can do, is not apply because those tiny numbers are still bigger than zero, regardless of how you can "round".

yes

yes if you're only comparing your odds against another individual. Collectively, those better perceived odds shrink drastically the more people that apply in your point pool and below.

yes

The various GF agencies have certainly preyed on the vulnerability of those that actually believe bonus point systems, and to some degree even preference point systems, improve their odds of ever drawing a tag.

It's a huge money maker selling nothing more than hope.

 

[Dave N]

 

[brownbear932008]

I think the point is it is a quick shortcut. The odds of not drawing are so large that it gets you close to the true number without having to do all the math, which isn't a strength of HT.

I wonder if they ever imagined have so many people jump in the bonus pool (pun intended) when it started? The more I look at the stats the more I think I will be withdrawing from applying for these tags going forward.

I looked at the 26 apps this morning. It simply amazes me the number of people jumping in near the bottom. If I had less than 10 points as a NR no way in heck I'd continue buying in. I get it " you can't draw if you don't apply". But a person needs to be realistic with their odds of drawing versus cost. Obviously hunters have a gambling addiction.

 

[Hem]

I just put in where I want to hunt, that's it.

 

[Big Sky Guy]

0.000015 > 0.000010 regardless of how small the numbers are.

With 10 bonus points, my statistical odds of drawing are higher of drawing than somebody with 9 or fewer points trying for the same permit.

In 2012 a pal drew all three permits, Moose, sheep and mountain goat, all in the same unit that same year. I have another friend and previous work collegue who is a math guy, whose entire living has been setting payout tables for poker machines. He figured out what my other friends statistical odds were of hitting all three permits that year, taking into consideration the points he had and others who'd applied. The first two numbers I list above are in that wheelhouse.

Still, the worst thing you can do, is not apply because those tiny numbers are still bigger than zero, regardless of how you can "round".

I looked at the 26 apps this morning. It simply amazes me the number of people jumping in near the bottom. If I had less than 10 points as a NR no way in heck I'd continue buying in. I get it " you can't draw if you don't apply". But a person needs to be realistic with their odds of drawing versus cost. Obviously hunters have a gambling addiction.

Someone fact check this for me but I'm pretty sure even with these "abysmal" odds we all still have way better odds than we do playing the PowerBall or state lotteries! That's something to be thankful for!

I know someone that drew goat, sheep and moose tags in consecutive years 2015, 2016 and 2017. I definitely had a skewed view at the drawing probabilities as I didn't realize how crazy that was, can't imagine drawing ALL THREE for the same season!

 

[Steve O]

Ever since I saw Epstein won the powerball twice I’ve bought a lot less tickets…

Tags, hunting raffles, and an occasional rare bourbon chance is it for my gambling.

 

[Wildabeest]

I just put in where I want to hunt, that's it.

I just put in where I can reasonably draw a tag. That’s it.

 

[MTTW]

I believe that the drawing was different in the old days, and I know people who drew multiple big 3 tags the same year.

In about 1983 I drew bull moose, goat, and late Gardiner bull elk in the same drawing. In 1996 my sil drew goat and sheep in her first ever application.

Extreme luck has always played a big part and if you get too mathematical about it you won't be there to get lucky.

Even back in the day some people went several decades without drawing a big 3 tag.

 

[Wildabeest]

Someone fact check this for me but I'm pretty sure even with these "abysmal" odds we all still have way better odds than we do playing the PowerBall or state lotteries! That's something to be thankful for!

I worked on a state lottery system once. Being geeks, we joked that the lottery was simply a tax on people who are bad at math.

 

[MTLabrador]

Can’t win if you don’t play… I know many people who have beaten the odds in recent years on the big 3. There’s always a chance.

 

[Gerald Martin]

I don’t know why everyone makes it so complicated.

I have applied for the big 3 and deer and elk in MT for 25 years.
Strategy has always been picking units with highest number of tags/ fewest applicants.

Four of those years my drawing odds were 100% or better. Actually drew sheep and goat the same year. For 21 of those years my odds were 0%.

So I’m either 100% successful or 0% successful every year.

 

[antlerradar]

Someone fact check this for me but I'm pretty sure even with these "abysmal" odds we all still have way better odds than we do playing the PowerBall or state lotteries! That's something to be thankful for!

I know someone that drew goat, sheep and moose tags in consecutive years 2015, 2016 and 2017. I definitely had a skewed view at the drawing probabilities as I didn't realize how crazy that was, can't imagine drawing ALL THREE for the same season!

If I was to win Powerball, I wouldn't have to apply for tags with the peons.

 

[Montanamuley1]

With all this odds talk feeling lucky to have drawn an absaroka goat tag with 12 points!

 

[MattK]

I used one moose unit from 2025 using the distribution of number of applicants per preference point pool. There were a total of 1897 applicants distributed from 1 to 25 preference points and 7 tags were given in the unit...the best odds were 1 in 55 and the worst odds were 1 in 37121 per point pool (using squared preference points). Your increased odds using squared preference points over not using squared preference points is about 16 (ie. those with 16 points have better odds using squared preference points). Without squared preference points the worst odds are 1 in 2596 (versus 1 in 37140 for squared preference points) and the best odds are 1 in 100 without squared preference and 1 in 55 with squared preference points. It's fun looking at all the odds and the distribution of people in each preference point pool and how that changes the odds that someone from each of those pools will be chosen.

 

[kodiakisland]

The 3 NR goat tags in the area I apply went to 7,12, and 20 points. Seems there is always 1 if not 2 that draw with less points than I have. I guess that’s why I feel there’s always a chance, and that’s how they keep me on the hook.