MT- M/S/G results 26

[MattK]

I used one moose unit from 2025 using the distribution of number of applicants per preference point pool. There were a total of 1897 applicants distributed from 1 to 25 preference points and 7 tags were given in the unit...the best odds were 1 in 55 and the worst odds were 1 in 37121 per point pool (using squared preference points). Your increased odds using squared preference points over not using squared preference points is about 16 (ie. those with 16 points have better odds using squared preference points). Without squared preference points the worst odds are 1 in 2596 (versus 1 in 37140 for squared preference points) and the best odds are 1 in 100 without squared preference and 1 in 55 with squared preference points. It's fun looking at all the odds and the distribution of people in each preference point pool and how that changes the odds that someone from each of those pools will be chosen.

 

[kodiakisland]

The 3 NR goat tags in the area I apply went to 7,12, and 20 points. Seems there is always 1 if not 2 that draw with less points than I have. I guess that’s why I feel there’s always a chance, and that’s how they keep me on the hook.

 

[Montanamuley1]

It's just like buying raffle tickets.. you can buy 1 ticket or 300 tickets and somebody with 1 ticket can still win, but your odds are definitely better with more tickets.