brownbear932008
Well-known member
I have also noticed some things as well , I will not mention here. Sometimes it's best to keep your mouth shut before one sticks his foot in it making his chances even less.
MT- M/S/G results 26
- Thread starter brownbear932008
- Start date
brownbear932008
Well-known member
Best explanation I've seen yet. Those numbers seem correct but I'm no math whiz here.You're wrong. I just read on a hunting forum that the more bonus points I have the greater my odds are, probably nearing 10% by now.
4.7% of those with max points drew. That's FAR from 4.7% draw odds. Here is a table with the odds divided by the over 3 Million entries, once you account for all the other folks with bonus points. Someone correct me if I did this incorrectly.
Number of Points Number of Applications Number of Successes % Successful Number of Entries Actual Odds 0 2864 0 0.0% 1 3692 0 0.0% 2 3363 1 0.0% 3 2996 4 0.1% 4 2555 3 0.1% 5 2287 3 0.1% 6 1898 12 0.6% 7 1688 5 0.3% 8 1506 7 0.5% 9 1337 8 0.6% 10 1119 7 0.6% 11 1038 8 0.8% 12 984 14 1.4% 13 608 3 0.5% 14 553 10 1.8% 15 519 9 1.7% 16 494 7 1.4% 17 482 7 1.5% 18 427 8 1.9% 19 402 18 4.5% 20 383 15 3.9% 21 380 14 3.7% 22 374 16 4.3% 23 370 10 2.7% 24 465 19 4.1% 25 490 23 4.7% Totals: 33274 True Random Odds: 0.003005%
Yes, technically, you have increased your odds by .020611% at max points over the guy with 0 and .017638% over a true random draw. Randy and others have gone over this numerous times but folks still maintain hope in systems that are mathematically disingenuous to everyone participating.
True random, OIL, money up front is the way to go. Bonus point system better than preference point as we all still have a chance. Not trying to shame or discourage anyone, just illustrate how dismal the odds really are and how special those tags really are.
Take this with a grain of salt, I could be mistaken, after all I put in for North Dakota mule deer for 5 years before I realized they aren't even allocating tags to NR in the drawing.
Sincerest congrats to all those who drew.
BuzzH
Well-known member
Right. Anyone that thinks they have 4% odds of drawing a moose tag in Montana needs to drop the crack pipe and take a stats class.You're wrong. I just read on a hunting forum that the more bonus points I have the greater my odds are, probably nearing 10% by now.
4.7% of those with max points drew. That's FAR from 4.7% draw odds. Here is a table with the odds divided by the over 3 Million entries, once you account for all the other folks with bonus points. Someone correct me if I did this incorrectly.
Number of Points Number of Applications Number of Successes % Successful Number of Entries Actual Odds 0 2864 0 0.0% 1 3692 0 0.0% 2 3363 1 0.0% 3 2996 4 0.1% 4 2555 3 0.1% 5 2287 3 0.1% 6 1898 12 0.6% 7 1688 5 0.3% 8 1506 7 0.5% 9 1337 8 0.6% 10 1119 7 0.6% 11 1038 8 0.8% 12 984 14 1.4% 13 608 3 0.5% 14 553 10 1.8% 15 519 9 1.7% 16 494 7 1.4% 17 482 7 1.5% 18 427 8 1.9% 19 402 18 4.5% 20 383 15 3.9% 21 380 14 3.7% 22 374 16 4.3% 23 370 10 2.7% 24 465 19 4.1% 25 490 23 4.7% Totals: 33274 True Random Odds: 0.003005%
Yes, technically, you have increased your odds by .020611% at max points over the guy with 0 and .017638% over a true random draw. Randy and others have gone over this numerous times but folks still maintain hope in systems that are mathematically disingenuous to everyone participating.
True random, OIL, money up front is the way to go. Bonus point system better than preference point as we all still have a chance. Not trying to shame or discourage anyone, just illustrate how dismal the odds really are and how special those tags really are.
Take this with a grain of salt, I could be mistaken, after all I put in for North Dakota mule deer for 5 years before I realized they aren't even allocating tags to NR in the drawing
Sincerest congrats to all those who drew.
Forkyfinder
Well-known member
- Joined
- Dec 13, 2023
- Messages
- 5,702
The total number of successes is 224 - so youd have to multiply the odds you calculated by that to have something to compare to the drawing results.You're wrong. I just read on a hunting forum that the more bonus points I have the greater my odds are, probably nearing 10% by now.
4.7% of those with max points drew. That's FAR from 4.7% draw odds. Here is a table with the odds divided by the over 3 Million entries, once you account for all the other folks with bonus points. Someone correct me if I did this incorrectly.
Number of Points Number of Applications Number of Successes % Successful Number of Entries Actual Odds 0 2864 0 0.0% 1 3692 0 0.0% 2 3363 1 0.0% 3 2996 4 0.1% 4 2555 3 0.1% 5 2287 3 0.1% 6 1898 12 0.6% 7 1688 5 0.3% 8 1506 7 0.5% 9 1337 8 0.6% 10 1119 7 0.6% 11 1038 8 0.8% 12 984 14 1.4% 13 608 3 0.5% 14 553 10 1.8% 15 519 9 1.7% 16 494 7 1.4% 17 482 7 1.5% 18 427 8 1.9% 19 402 18 4.5% 20 383 15 3.9% 21 380 14 3.7% 22 374 16 4.3% 23 370 10 2.7% 24 465 19 4.1% 25 490 23 4.7% Totals: 33274 True Random Odds: 0.003005%
Yes, technically, you have increased your odds by .020611% at max points over the guy with 0 and .017638% over a true random draw. Randy and others have gone over this numerous times but folks still maintain hope in systems that are mathematically disingenuous to everyone participating.
True random, OIL, money up front is the way to go. Bonus point system better than preference point as we all still have a chance. Not trying to shame or discourage anyone, just illustrate how dismal the odds really are and how special those tags really are.
Take this with a grain of salt, I could be mistaken, after all I put in for North Dakota mule deer for 5 years before I realized they aren't even allocating tags to NR in the drawing
Sincerest congrats to all those who drew.
You would have increased your chances by (0.020611 x 224) 4.6%. Technically marginally higher because points disappear almost every permit.
Edit: youd have increased odds by the difference. So pts - random (4.6 - 0.003005 x 224) = 3.9%
Stone_Ice_1
Well-known member
Starting to realize the battle I am fighting here.
Overall probability of drawing a moose tag in 2025 was 0.69% among all applicants. This is found by taking the number of applicants (33274) and dividing it by successes (231). This isn't theory, this is what actually happened in the draw.
If you had max points in 2025 you had a 4.69% chance at drawing. 490 applied and 23 drew it. The percentages go down from there depending on the number of points you had.
I will say it one more time. Those numbers are what actually happened in the draw.
So if it was completely random in 2025 every person would have had a 0.69% chance of drawing a moose tag. With the point system it is easy to see that having more points gives you a much higher chance at drawing.
Some of you get it, some of you don't. I do have a graduate degree in exactly this topic.
Overall probability of drawing a moose tag in 2025 was 0.69% among all applicants. This is found by taking the number of applicants (33274) and dividing it by successes (231). This isn't theory, this is what actually happened in the draw.
If you had max points in 2025 you had a 4.69% chance at drawing. 490 applied and 23 drew it. The percentages go down from there depending on the number of points you had.
I will say it one more time. Those numbers are what actually happened in the draw.
So if it was completely random in 2025 every person would have had a 0.69% chance of drawing a moose tag. With the point system it is easy to see that having more points gives you a much higher chance at drawing.
Some of you get it, some of you don't. I do have a graduate degree in exactly this topic.
PoleX
Well-known member
- Joined
- Mar 1, 2025
- Messages
- 309
Trying to see if I understand the point your trying to make; as people apply and continue to apply year after year the total points cumulatively increases. If we look at total points from year 2000-now the denominator has increased significantly and exponentially at that, while the tags issued has declined significantly. That's the problem with any point system. The silver lining is; if your going to do a point system, randomizing success vs preference is the preferred by most.
