This isnt just about the what if scenario. HR 1526 passed the Fed House this fall that would transfer authority of Fed lands to States, with the Fed retaining title and fiscal responsibility (like if a fire broke out). 227 Repubs voted for it and 17 Dems. It is on to the Senate now. This bill allows the states to do as they please as administrators, even includes the ever popular categorical exclusion (no NEPA) and mandatory resource extraction bits.
Currently the Senate holds 53 seats and the Republicans 45 seats. There are 2 Independent seats which generally caucus with the Dems. Of those 17 Dems that voted for this in the House they are from the states of AL, AZ, CA, GA, MN, NC, OR, UT and WV. Of the Senators currently serving in the same states are AL, CA, MN, NC, WV and OR. All it would take is for 11 Dems to vote yes and they would have the majority on this HR 1526 - a value step towards transfer.
As to Never gonna happen, this doesnt just affect fed transfer, this value also affects local and state elections. The majority of those supporting this transfer agenda were also those that sponsored the majority of the bills against wildlife, habitat, access in this last legislature. This is already costing us money while they continue to advance this privatization agenda.