Montana General Season Structure Proposal 3.0

[cgasner1]

Aka cherry picking.

He may not of realized the graph was made in 2024 and used a 20 year average

 

[Forkyfinder]

I believe the argument started at 2004 for a 20 year average of anything we should take it back to 94 and use a 30 year

2004 and 2005 would be called anomalies.

In the last 7 of 20 years - pressure has been higher or matched what it is now. In statistics - thatd be called a "weak trend"

 

[cgasner1]

2004 and 2005 would be called anomalies.

In the last 7 of 20 years - pressure has been higher or matched what it is now. In statistics - thatd be called a "weak trend"

So why would the answer be to cut out instead of look back farther for the trend?

 

[El Jason]

So why would the answer be to cut out instead of look back farther for the trend?

This

 

[Forkyfinder]

This

So why would the answer be to cut out instead of look back farther for the trend?

Trend Analysis of Hunter Days in Montana

Shared via Copilot

copilot.microsoft.com

An unbiased perspective/analysis. Does it agree with your conclusions?

 

[Forkyfinder]

It would be interesting to overlay that graph with data showing number of private acres enrolled in public access programs.

Surely - longer seasons will make those problems worse.

 

[cgasner1]

Trend Analysis of Hunter Days in Montana

Shared via Copilot

copilot.microsoft.com

An unbiased perspective/analysis. Does it agree with your conclusions?

Those numbers are also missing 2 years that I’d bet have a lot higher numbers since everyone seems to stay home during covid

 

[Forkyfinder]

Those numbers are also missing 2 years that I’d bet have a lot higher numbers since everyone seems to stay home during covid

Was there an upward trend somewhere?

When people who get paid to do statistics do them - they ignore things that are uniquely not representative of the data and toss them out (anomalies).

 

[cgasner1]

Was there an upward trend somewhere?

When people who get paid to do statistics do them - they ignore things that are uniquely not representative of the data and toss them out (anomalies).

I’m a simple minded person and numbers are hard. I’m not gonna argue with you over a 20 year trend that’s why the years are the way they are. I can’t remember if that was a graph we put together or Fwp but they used a 20 year trend I don’t think there was any book cooking going on with it

 

[Forkyfinder]

I’m a simple minded person and numbers are hard. I’m not gonna argue with you over a 20 year trend that’s why the years are the way they are. I can’t remember if that was a graph we put together or Fwp but they used a 20 year trend I don’t think there was any book cooking going on with it

I hear you.

Simply - i can say in the last 15 years (2009 -2024 hunter numbers went down). Just like someone else can say they increased 25% in 20 years if they use 2004 as the baseline. Neither statement is statistically significant cause youre only talking about 2 years.

The "trendline" describes whats going on with the data. And it describes no growth - and thats according to AI, not me.

 

[cgasner1]

I hear you.

Simply - i can say in the last 15 years (2009 -2024 hunter numbers went down). Just like someone else can say they increased 25% in 20 years if they use 2004 as the baseline. Neither statement is statistically significant cause youre only talking about 2 years.

The "trendline" describes whats going on with the data. And it describes no growth - and thats according to AI, not me.

Well man figures make liars and liars make figures put some charts and stuff together. You know the thing the group keeps mentioning about other people should be doing this also

 

[DFS]

I hear you.

Simply - i can say in the last 15 years (2009 -2024 hunter numbers went down). Just like someone else can say they increased 25% in 20 years if they use 2004 as the baseline. Neither statement is statistically significant cause youre only talking about 2 years.

The "trendline" describes whats going on with the data. And it describes no growth - and thats according to AI, not me.

I have seen the changes I don’t need data or charts to validate them. You can say anecdotal but the changes I’ve seen I am sure of.

 

[Forkyfinder]

I have have seen the changes I don’t need data or charts to validate them. You can say anecdotal but the changes I’ve seen I am sure of.

R7, i presume?

Thats why i want it LE.

 

[DFS]

R7, i presume?

Thats why i want it LE.

Yes region 7

 

[Forkyfinder]

Yes region 7

Trends in Resident and Non-Resident Hunter Days

Shared via Copilot

copilot.microsoft.com

An unbiased perspective.

Key Takeaways
Resident hunter days have declined slightly since their peak in the late 2000s.

Non-resident hunter days have shown more consistent growth, especially from 2004 to 2019.

Total hunter effort (R + NR) peaked around 2019 and has slightly declined since.

Non-residents are harvesting a growing share of the total deer in Region 7.

This could reflect increased NR opportunity, improved success rates, or declining R participation.

The narrowing gap suggests NR hunters are becoming nearly as impactful as residents in terms of harvest.

 

[DFS]

Trends in Resident and Non-Resident Hunter Days

Shared via Copilot

copilot.microsoft.com

An unbiased perspective.

Key Takeaways
Resident hunter days have declined slightly since their peak in the late 2000s.

Non-resident hunter days have shown more consistent growth, especially from 2004 to 2019.

Total hunter effort (R + NR) peaked around 2019 and has slightly declined since.

Non-residents are harvesting a growing share of the total deer in Region 7.

This could reflect increased NR opportunity, improved success rates, or declining R participation.

The narrowing gap suggests NR hunters are becoming nearly as impactful as residents in terms of harvest.

Locals who used to hunt public you don’t see hunting public anymore. Western Montana and nonresidents are who you see now. Nonresidents who used to hunt private are now hunting public and staying for way longer. Mule deer buck harvest according to MTFWP, nonresidents consistently have been exceeding residents. Pick your region and nonresident caps could help for awhile but the only way to fix it correctly would be nonresident caps and moving the season out of the rut or limited entry if we keep our same season dates. I don’t see much changing this season setting. They have the science supporting the current slaughter.

 

[brockel]

I don’t see much changing this season setting. They have the science supporting the current slaughter.

Yep. It’s going to take non resident tags going unsold before any meaningful changes are made. And there are plenty of people lining up to grab those tags so I don’t see much change happening.

 

[bigsky2]

Locals who used to hunt public you don’t see hunting public anymore. Western Montana and nonresidents are who you see now. Nonresidents who used to hunt private are now hunting public and staying for way longer. Mule deer buck harvest according to MTFWP, nonresidents consistently have been exceeding residents. Pick your region and nonresident caps could help for awhile but the only way to fix it correctly would be nonresident caps and moving the season out of the rut or limited entry if we keep our same season dates. I don’t see much changing this season setting. They have the science supporting the current slaughter.

I grew up in Region 7 and have been hunting it for the past 25 years. Based on what I've seen, the demographics of the hunters have definitely changed over that time. Most of the R7 residents that I grew up hunting with either don't hunt deer anymore or hunt very little. It seems like if I see Montana plates while hunting, they are more than likely from western MT. I've also noticed that things have changed as far as the make up of the NR hunters. It used to be mainly Minnesota and Wisconsin plates, now there's a lot of Washington. I'm not sure if that can be attributed to social media, more WA residents travelling to hunt than before, or if they just decided western MT isn't worth hunting for deer any more and have shifted to the east.

 

[Forkyfinder]

Pick your region and nonresident caps, limited entry + we keep our same season dates.

Look at that, we agree

 

[Forkyfinder]

Yep. It’s going to take non resident tags going unsold before any meaningful changes are made. And there are plenty of people lining up to grab those tags so I don’t see much change happening.

Na - maybe once outfitters stop selling tags.

Suppose thatll be a long road - given that no one here seems to give an actual shit about losing 30k acres of public access to an outfitter.