Im bowing out

[BigHornRam]

Looked at shorting lumber yesterday, need to do more work. Investors rush into commodities to protect against inflation and drive up the price which in turn creates more inflation. Bad cycle. It will cause the Fed to hike rates faster and crimp demand, sending prices lower.

Everything ends badly or it wouldn’t end

Feds should have raised rates a long time ago when it would have done something positive. I believe you were even on board with it. They didn't. Now it's going to be a big mess.

 

[SAJ-99]

Feds should have raised rates a long time ago when it would have done something positive. I believe you were even on board with it. They didn't. Now it's going to be a big mess.

Yep. Hell, they are still buying bonds. WTF. Fed’s losing credibility faster than the Montana FWP Commission. To my point, some blame goes to “investors” and corporations who think they can get away with price increases because they can.

 

[BigHornRam]

Yep. Hell, they are still buying bonds. WTF. Fed’s losing credibility faster than the Montana FWP Commission. To my point, some blame goes to “investors” and corporations who think they can get away with price increases because they can.

View attachment 211994

Are you saying the CPI is a crock? Change "investors" to "speculators" and you are getting warm.

 

[SAJ-99]

Are you saying the CPI is a crock? Change "investors" to "speculators" and you are getting warm.

No, I'm not saying that. Largest part of CPI is Owners equivalent rent. Imperfect but its reasonable. We certainly spend more on the mortgage than we do on coffee or veg oil. CPI is reasonable. There is no great way to measure inflation for everyone.

Speculators get a bad rap. No one complains about them when they drive oil negative and gasoline is $1.50/gal. They are necessary or big producers would control prices. Like I said, I might short lumber at some point. I am mad I missed a 70pt reversal in soybeans yesterday. Cest la vi.

Anecdotally, the house next to us went for sale yesterday. Hit MLS on Wednesday resulting in numerous drive-bys. Thur and Fri had cars in the driveway all day. Sat was empty because they already had multiple offers. There are still people out there looking to buy. Inventory is horribly low. The only way it gets fixed is higher rates and/or a recession. Prices may come down a bit, but don't expect a housing crash.

 

[Elkmagnet]

Or what is a worthless dollar?
29% increase in February.
Not going to end well.

Lumber prices are up 29% in February as pace of economic reopening sparks new rally in global commodities

Prices for iron, oil, soybeans, and fertilizer have also pointed higher amid cold winter weather, geopolitical tensions, and supply chain disruptions.

markets.businessinsider.com

Currently an issue with windows, shower/ tub inserts here.
Houses being "finished" with no windows and the heater running 24/7. They do windows last nonalcoholic?
Also guys throwing up the cheapest tile showers in place of an insert to get the c of o before building loan default

 

[Nick87]

No, I'm not saying that. Largest part of CPI is Owners equivalent rent. Imperfect but its reasonable. We certainly spend more on the mortgage than we do on coffee or veg oil. CPI is reasonable. There is no great way to measure inflation for everyone.

Speculators get a bad rap. No one complains about them when they drive oil negative and gasoline is $1.50/gal. They are necessary or big producers would control prices. Like I said, I might short lumber at some point. I am mad I missed a 70pt reversal in soybeans yesterday. Cest la vi.

Anecdotally, the house next to us went for sale yesterday. Hit MLS on Wednesday resulting in numerous drive-bys. Thur and Fri had cars in the driveway all day. Sat was empty because they already had multiple offers. There are still people out there looking to buy. Inventory is horribly low. The only way it gets fixed is higher rates and/or a recession. Prices may come down a bit, but don't expect a housing crash.

How fast and high do you think rates are going to go?

 

[BigHornRam]

Currently an issue with windows, shower/ tub inserts here.
Houses being "finished" with no windows and the heater running 24/7. They do windows last nonalcoholic?
Also guys throwing up the cheapest tile showers in place of an insert to get the c of o before building loan default

That's messed up.

 

[Elkmagnet]

If hunting was illegal in MA Boston would still be waaaaay better than Denver.

Now a place like Rochester... not even close.

There are a lot of factors that influence where is a good spot for every individual, me included. Lots of good reasons for me to return to CO at some point... family, job...

but if your not in OG/tech/defense and you don't really really want to be able to ski all the time. I honestly don't know why you would live in Denver. If you legitimately like city things...I mean Chicago, or Houston... I really like Dallas. On the flip side if you really like outdoors stuff (that aren't mt specific) midwest hands down or the south, if you like mountain stuff, I'll say it New England. Vermont has more options for skiing + biking, and it's like it was in CO 20 years ago. Mom and pop areas, no lift lines. Nothing like the dumpster fire of CA or WA traffic.

Now maybe 20+ years ago, I get moving to CO/Denver, and if your in your late 40s-50s and you have assets and you want to stay I understand that as well.

But if your retiring, and you don't want to ski and bike in retirement or if your in your late 20s or 30s and want to start a family... and again mountains aren't really really important to you. Denver/ Colorado is not the place to be, why spend your life paying way to much for housing, and sitting in traffic all the time.

Just saying if I was 65 and didn’t ski, and had my CO house paid off I’d be looking at property in Arkansas.

My wife's family lives well in upstate New York, Boston and Buffalo. For cheaper than my few acres in Idaho. The catch? Property taxes and the A hole ratio.

 

[SAJ-99]

How fast and high do you think rates are going to go?

That is the question everyone is asking. I closed on a house on Jan 14 and national average 30yr mortgage was 3.0%. Today it is over 4.%. So they have already moved up considerably. What I personally think should happen and what will happen are rarely the same.

Below is today where the market is pricing the Fed rate to be at the end of the year. Mortages would be about 1.5% higher. These are crazy moves. You can compare to Jan 11 column. "How fast" is evolving by the hour. After Bullard's comments yesterday about an "emergency meeting" increase, it is clear some members want to get the market's attention. But that isn't Jay Powell's way of doing things up to this point.

 

[BigHornRam]

Um, yeaah! Haven't you seen Yellowstone!?

They are building this thing about a mile down the road from me, where they filmed the show a couple summers ago. They have been diddling around on it for almost a year. I've heard it's to house somebody's corvette collection. Yellowstone money is real!

SIPS panels have been laying around uncovered for about 9 months turning yellow. No biggie.

 

[El Jason]

She averages like 85 hrs a week soooo lol

Taking up ice fishing?

 

[Exhausted]

Taking up ice fishing?

and end up getting caught with a prostitute? Don't do it!

 

[JohnCushman]

and end up getting caught with a prostitute? Don't do it!

If she a midget, go for it!!!

 

[Nick87]

They are building this thing about a mile down the road from me, where they filmed the show a couple summers ago. They have been diddling around on it for almost a year. I've heard it's to house somebody's corvette collection. Yellowstone money is real!
View attachment 212006
SIPS panels have been laying around uncovered for about 9 months turning yellow. No biggie.
View attachment 212007

Funny you should post this. I have no pics on my phone but we are digging a pond for a guy this upcoming year like 3 to 4 acres. He is building a 4 to 5k square foot house and just finished a barn similar to that. Barn looks just like that but way biggerwith a large glass cupola at the top. He said all said and done he'll have more than 700k in the barn. Told the guys building it he wants it to "look just like the one on yellowstone". Even painting it the same colors.
Hell of a nice guy, sure is an awful lot of money. The barn is going to be primarily used for gatherings and entertaining.

 

[VikingsGuy]

Yep. Hell, they are still buying bonds. WTF. Fed’s losing credibility faster than the Montana FWP Commission. To my point, some blame goes to “investors” and corporations who think they can get away with price increases because they can.

View attachment 211994

I think inflation from Jan 2019 to Jan 2022 would be a much more useful data set, as some (certainly not all or maybe not even the majority) of the year on year change is price restoration from pandemic dips that can magnify the issue in a manner that doesn't aid understanding or problem-solving.

 

[SAJ-99]

I think inflation from Jan 2019 to Jan 2022 would be a much more useful data set, as some (certainly not all or maybe not even the majority) of the year on year change is price restoration from pandemic dips that can magnify the issue in a manner that doesn't aid understanding or problem-solving.

Agree, but CPI was re-weighted (re-based, as they say), as they do every 10 years for so. That has been a point of contention for a long time. But look at the base-date now.LOL

"Starting in January 2022, weights for the Consumer Price Index are calculated based on consumer expenditure data from 2019-2020. The BLS considered interventions, but decided to maintain normal procedures."

 

[Cheesehead]

Um… not apples to apples

House had the heating system from 1928 + building + floors + some fixtures etc.

What was Fords Capex in 1928, vehicles produced, revenue, etc.

Of course different asset classes can be compared, and I get that deferred maintenance likely existed (that would actually make the RoR worse btw…). And yes, imputed rent should be considered yada yada.
I’m simply pointing out that FV less PV looks like a huge number but once you realize N=51, Rate is good but not astounding. Or said differently, compound interest really is the 8th wonder/indexing has had an amazing stretch run

 

[Deleted member 28227]

Of course different asset classes can be compared, and I get that deferred maintenance likely existed (that would actually make the RoR worse btw…). And yes, imputed rent should be considered yada yada.
I’m simply pointing out that FV less PV looks like a huge number but once you realize N=51, Rate is good but not astounding. Or said differently, compound interest really is the 8th wonder/indexing has had an amazing stretch run

 

[Cheesehead]

Reasoning?

 

[VikingsGuy]

Reasoning?

It was a funny meme that would garner him additional coveted "likes" towards his inflated "reaction score"