How bad is it?

[pa mt man]

How bad is it for you guys. Anyone laid off. Any business owners feeling the effects of a recession. All the CNC and grinding shops in my area are shutting down for a few weeks or laying off big time. I could go on and on with all the different big businesses that are in trouble just around me.

I'm in good shape right now. More backlog than we grossed last year and we grossed three times more last year than the year before. The jobs I have will take months to complete. But I'm scared that the companies I have the work for could cancel the purchase orders at any time. They are slower than shit and I was told I was lucky the union left the jobs go since they have so many laid off. It also means there is no more work coming.

I picked up my daughter from Kent State last night where she is a journalism major. Shes home for the weekend and on the ride home she told my wife and I how bad it is at the newspaper. They get their financing from advertising and it is way,way off. She told us at Christmas how depressed all the fall graduates were because they couldn't find jobs. I feel sorry for the young people.

I ask everyone I talk to how long they think it's going to take for the economy to start back. Shortest time was my friend Larry who thought it was going to turn around at the end of this year. I couldn't believe how many said not till Obama is out of office. To be fair I didn't ask any black people. I'm sorry gunner but I don't have any black friends. How come I feel like that's wrong?
Well I decided to try to make a poll to prove I'm better at something than BigFin. I'm sure not a better hunter than him.hump


Well I can't believe I'm dumber than cjcj!

I cant make a poll either.

 

[Oak]

Well I can't believe I'm dumber than cjcj!

cjcj, you don't have to take that.

We'll be a little slower this summer. I might not have to work 80 hrs a week.

 

[Moosie]

PA, It's Bad for me, I'm not gunna Lie...

I actually went from Making good money to just getting by. Problem was, Last year I still lived like I was making good money

ALL my rentals are Negative Cashflowing. For a couple months I had to float some Payments to make several home Payments. I also was Audited for 04-05 and that Came due last year. Fortunately it was only a $15k bill..... *sigh*

My old company Elk Mountain has esentially shut it's doors. After geting into the Hundred of thousands in Account Recievables they jsut couldn't run it. Market is Sllllooooowww. Putting Leins on properties ? HAHA, stand in line.

I actually went in to See a BK lawyer and trying to figure out my situation. Fortunatley I put money down on the homes that I have (Well, sort of fortunately)... But I might be able to get out from under them without paying more, or not much more.

The Kicker is the Last house I bought I put about $38k cash down on it. Now I might be able to sell it for what I owe... Bye Bye money down, and then some.

Looking back I should have kept a Ratio of CASH on hand. I know.. I know.. CASH IS KING and it truely is. Cashflow is the tough part. Had I put 10% or more in the SLUSH fund over the last couple years I would have 50k or so to float things out.

I also bought a Tahoe in NOV 07'. Guess What I'm upside down on it.... YAh, $14k. Someone else said soemthing about paying for Vehicles cash

It's all Good. I've lost it all before (Although on a Smaller level and for different reasons), came back and did it again. I'm goingto restructure how I do things a little so if nothing else its a Little Expensive Skewlin' for me

If I dump a few places and get out of the "bleeding" it will be good.

I'm actually right now doing Loan Mod's on 4 of my homes. We'll see how that goes over the next 2-3 months. Something has got to give.

I always have an Upbeat outlook, Eventhough reality things are crumbling around. I won't go down with the Ship but I'll hop on the Dingy back to Shore and Build a new one

 

[Nut]

As a CNC Machinist also it does not look like good prospects for me. At present I am employed but I had been looking for something that is less of a drive(65 miles one way). So I will try to stay where I am at.

What jobs I have been working on are going to be done way before their due date. March 2nd is the date due on the last job I worked on. I see no material on the floor for new jobs. So I might be laid off soon.

 

[shoots-straight]

I'm a general contractor, need I say more!

 

[cornfed]

I'm also a CNC machinist(now programmer) and my company just layed off 66 people.Most companies just keep pushing out their orders and it doesn't look like things will change soon.We usually work 50 to 55 hour weeks but have been at 40 with short weeks here and there and a 2/3 voluntary layoff over the last week of the year.We've been warned of 36 hour work weeks or maybe just getting sent home for the day from time to time.This is coming from the number one or two cylinder manufacturer in the U.S.(at least thats what the boss says).Right now we have lots of prototypes going thru so were good for the next month.Not really any full or part time jobs to speak of in the area either.Most companies have had some sort of layoff in the area.

 

[MNHunter]

My company is in good shape... we reported a profit recently despite being in a tough industry. I have had the unpleasant job of going to MA and NJ recently to make sure we didn't miss anything when we closed those offices. All those people lost their jobs. We have a job opening right now and have had a 100+ applicants when a year or two ago we might have had 15 for this type of job. It is tough out there right now.

 

[cjcj]

cjcj, you don't have to take that.

We'll be a little slower this summer. I might not have to work 80 hrs a week.

Well at least he admits it

Wonder how many of these guys are CNC "operators"....Big differance in pay and Demandhump

But as to the Question... things are going very well if we are talking .. Money and Finances..... Casino "offers" are down about 20% and tourny payouts are down......But both my parents are in bad shape.....Money aint shit sometimes!

 

[TLC]

like SS, also a general contractor. but also do the work on the houses and do stuff for others as well. if I can make it thru til end of march, begining of april, wil probably make it thru another year. but it has really slowed down back here. wonder if nobama will try more low income housing in chicago I could bid on?

 

[ERSS]

My wife and I are nurses, still seems to be a shortage and a job in demand. We get 4-5 mailings a week of hospitals, clinics, etc who must be mass mailing everyone with a nursing license trying to fill openings they have. I am working part time, but the psych hospital I am working for has a hard time filling the full time positions and will take almost any warm body with an RN after thier name.

What used to be a hobby business has now become full time, me and my business partner just built a new 40x60 builiding with a 20x40 office in it to house the business that has outgrown our homes.

I have a lot of friends who are contractors or in the construction industry in some way. Most of them are talking bankruptcy, and many have folded thier tents and taken jobs working in oil fields or driving oil trucks in Colorado, Wyoming and Eastern Ut. We had a huge building boom going on the past several years, now most contractors have several houses that have been on the market 8 months to a year and no real prospects.

 

[jabber]

In road construction here and for the first time since 1988 I am not working on at least one project. This time last year we were working on 2 projects (one @ $85M and one @ $43M) with about 30 foreman & 175 hourly workers. Finished both of those late last year, and we now have 2 foreman & 6 hourly employees cleaning up the yard and getting the equipment ready to go to the auction.

Those of us in the office have been told we are covered for about a year, if we don't get any work in that time, well...... anyway, right now we are doing estimating work for the main office.

Financially I am better off right now than I was last year, but I wish I wasn't (life ins.) But we are just sitting on that and going to see if we get work here or if I end up having to move to a new locale for work.

 

[----]

I'm a college student, so luckily I don't have that much to lose. I usually only work from about March-September as a glass technician, and save enough money from that to get me through the fall and winter while going to school. I was cutting it really close this year, then ended up in the hospital for a week with pneumonia, now I'm flat ass broke. There's no work at the glass shop, so I've been trying for about a month to get a job, any job, to hold me over for a while. There is absolutely nothing. I have been applying at grocery stores, video stores, restaurants, and can't even get an interview.
Like I said before, luckily I don't have a house or business yet to lose. Worst case scenario, I have to sell my truck.
Hopefully I get a big enough tax return to finally pick up my bear rug that's been sitting at the taxidermist all winter.
Luckily the field I'm going into seems to be doing fine, and hopefully I'll get good work when I graduate next year...

 

[Big Fin]

The CPA world is always real steady. No one gets filthy rich, but you usually have enough work to do OK.

I have been doing this for 22 years. My clients are going through the worst financial struggles I have seen in those 22 years.

Some saved money when things were booming the last five years. They have enough to get through this.

Some were making great money, but kept borrowing and spending as though it would never come to an end. I think most of them will lose everything.

I wish it was different. For those businesses that make it through this, they will have a lot less competition than they had in the past. Many of your competitors will not make it.

I think we are in for a long hangover. Even once things get better, I don't expect people to go back to the borrow and spend habits they had. They have learned their lesson and when they do get a rebound, they are going to save some money, not rush out and buy a third TV, etc.

I am not sure if our government (from Federal down to local lever) leaders get it. They seem hell bent on continuing to spend like crazy and feel responsibility to keep some of the biggest offenders from feeling any pain. Pisses me off to no end.

I see so many small business that have worked like slaves, struggling to make it, and if one bad break comes up, they are done for. Yet, every new tax bill I read, has passed some BS bailout/handout/welfare program for a group of dumbasses who have contributed to this situation in some respect.

For our firm, we are seeing our receivables grow. People are slower to pay. We are spending a lot of time meeting with our client's bankers. Bankers have never had much use for me, and that has been a pretty mutual feeling, but given the stressful meetings of the past quarter, they probably have even less appreciation for me. My clients seem to appreciate it though.

Any of you with a bank breathing down your neck, don't be afraid to call their bluff. Behind the scenes, they are nervous as hell. They might say they will foreclose, but they are in the business of collecting payments on performing loans. They do not want to foreclose, if they don't have to. A dead loan with worthless collateral is of little value to them. When pressed, they will accomodate with deferral of payments, interest only, or complete restructure of the loan.

Hang in there guys. It will get better. Just wish we could predict "when."

 

[Larry Landgren]

I'm a general contractor and we have been slow since about October. Lost 3/4's of a mill. this fall due to lending falling threw at the last minute and the future is not looking to great.. There is still some work to be had but you have to go in with negative margins to even get looked at

I see construction companies close there doors on a weekly basis here and the companies that are still afloat are having huge layoffs every week..

 

[Larry Landgren]

This might be a bit off topic but with all these people getting laid off and not able to find another job to make all there loan payments,whats going to happen with the tens of thousands if not hundreds of thousands of repoed cars,trucks,boats,rv's and houses ? Not to mention all the credit cards that people will default on ?

 

[JoseCuervo]

I walked into a warehouse on Friday of a distributor that supplies goods to one of the large national home improvement chains.

There were two people left in a building that used to have about 20 running around in it. He offered to sell me anything in the warehouse for $0.30 on the dollar. Now doing some of that fancy-schmancy 'rithmatic stuff to see if I want to offer them $0.15 for his inventory and equipment.

And, ran into another guy on Friday who is a general manager of a large local factory that used to employ over 400 people on two shifts. In January they worked 4 days all month with 40 or so employees.

I think people like Big Fin was mentioning that borrowed a lot will be wiped out in this. Those who have cash and strong balance sheets will be the only companies still standing and won't have much for competition in the near future.

It seems like the darkest days were just before the election when some still believed McCain and his "the fundamentals of the economy are strong" could have somehow won the election and dug an even deeper hole for this country. I was at an auction in early November when a 4 year old New Holland Skidsteer took for ever to sell for $7k when it should be "worth $18k", but there were no bidders willing to buy a piece of equipment that in good days would keep a family of 4 fed.

The last couple of weeks since January 20 seem to have much more consumer confidence and hope. We likely will have a rolling recovery to get out of this hole.

 

[JoseCuervo]

There is still some work to be had but you have to go in with negative margins to even get looked at

I see construction companies close there doors on a weekly basis here and the companies that are still afloat are having huge layoffs every week..

I know guys who have had to cut everything out on their margin, and then they aren't getting paid for the work. It seems like winning bids right now is worse than not getting the job.

This might be a bit off topic but with all these people getting laid off and not able to find another job to make all there loan payments,whats going to happen with the tens of thousands if not hundreds of thousands of repoed cars,trucks,boats,rv's and houses ? Not to mention all the credit cards that people will default on ?

The houses are causing everybody else's house to go down in value. I have heard, and I believe, that EVERYBODY who bought a house in the last 2 years is now at negative equity. As each one gets foreclosed on and the bank has it and tries to sell it, they end up resetting the values in the entire neighborhood at a lower value, forcing more people to lose equity, which results in more foreclosures, etc...

Car dealers are having their inventory values tumble as all these cars are repo'd and returned to lenders. Look at the values on the 3 year old 3/4 ton 4x4's on a dealers lot. They seem to be about 1/2 what you would have thought they were a year ago. As their inventory loses value, banks require payments on the inventory financing.

 

[Moosie]

Being in the "lending" part, We're having a harder time with the banks. They are Nit-picking Appraisals, having the I's dotted twice and the T's crossed 3 times. Cash out Refi's over 85% DTI are a 2 appraisal Mandatory. Even people with the credit at times are feeling the pinch. Come May is the new appraisal bill goes through we're Sunk (in my oppinion). What the plan is will be to not being able to pick your own appraisers. EVERY ONE goes throgh a Rotation system. At that point, you pay the Appraiser up front. The more carefully they are with the values the more security they will have. My personal thought is they will round down and values will drop even further. We'll see. If thats the case, This summer would be the year to pick up homes for it will be the bottom......

Some saved money when things were booming the last five years. They have enough to get through this.

Some were making great money, but kept borrowing and spending as though it would never come to an end. I think most of them will lose everything.

Big Fin, Why are you always picking on ME ?!?!?!

I have a friend that is making crazy offers on Homes. He's offering 900k on 2.5 million $ homes. His thinking is, He'll just pay Cash on a couple places, Sit on them for 5-10 years then sell them to make a few hundred G's on the return side. That stratagy sure beats putting money in the stock market right now

Having money is a funny situation. I know people here that are asking me... "What Downturn ?" Some people have some steady jobs and don't feel the pinch. They'll never get rich but just keep plugging the steady wage. Kudos to them. I still couldn't do it. Yet others go through this on a HIGH rollercoaster and then the low rollercoaster.

I hear about people on a Daily basis that are selling the farm or just walking away from it. Watching UFC at a bud's tonight I heard of a Neighbor that packed their stuff up and walked over night. Left the house for empty for the bank to do whatever with it.

From the Lending side, I know that with a BK if you keep your nose clean 2 years you can get a loan. I'm guessing that will go back up to 3 years this year. But with a Foreclosure, or a "walk away" you are 7 years. You are DONE for 7 years, even with 20-30% down. Banks want to see that people at least take note of the situation and try to resolve it through the courts. take that info and your situation for what it's worth....

My other buddy is a Vet. He put out an add for an $8.50 kennel poop cleaner. He said it ran Sat-Sun. By Monday he had 78 applicants. Thats crazy !?!?!??!

At any rate, you guys that are struglin' keep your Chins up. I know I am. Something always comes around. No matter how bad it gets people always get by. Just make sure you pay for your Internet conection to keep in touch and post on HuntTalk !!!

 

[kiwi hunta]

Well there's been no change at all up here in ore country, the company is going through rapid growth project 4 at the moment, 5 has had the capital investment signed off by the board and 6 will be the same.

20 new locomotives were being unloaded at the port this week and another 20 on the way, so GE over your way is making some $$.

To put it in perspective we ship around 400,000 tonnes of iron ore a day, current spot price is around USD$70 a tonne, it costs USD$15 a tonne to mine and rail it to port, a decent sort of profit in anyone's books, this time last year the spot price was USD$175.

So I guess it just profit or more profit.

 

[guppie9]

With me being a teacher and my wife a nurse, I've never been overly concerned about either of us losing our jobs. I guess I am one of those people that Moosie is talking about that will never get rich and just keeps on plugging.

While our wages are steady and rock solid, the problem right now for the "average" guy like me is three-fold:

1. My wages are steady but prices are increasing. Everyday goods such as groceries, heating fuel, gasoline, etc. rise, but my paycheck stays the same. Never a good thing.

2. Values are going down. While I am not into negative equity in my house, the value has definately dropped over the past year. For someone who is planning on moving (like me) in the next 1-2 years, that is not a good thing.

3. Investments have tanked. Again, while not a rich man, my wife and I both have retirement investments that are total shit at this point. We even cashed one out in November after it had lost 40% of its value. We figured it was better to take the IRS hit and have the cash on hand in our savings account in case something really bad happens. Plus, we are getting 2% interest on it. Even with the IRS hit, I think we are coming out ahead. We can always dump some of that money back into a 401 or IRA when the market gets better. We also used some of the money to pay down some credit cards which puts us in a better financial position.

Anyway that is my 2 cents (or 1.7 or whatever it is worth now) from someone who can't buy his daughter a Mercedes.