Fresh Tracks Weekly - Why Non-resident Hunters Pay More

[rjthehunter]

@rjthehunter @Treeshark

is that a gohunt graph? i can't find it if so. curious what it looks like in the 5 years leading up to covid...

Yes, this is from gohunt.

I agree, I'd like to see it leading up to Covid. I'd assume there was a spike in 2020 like there was with a lot of outdoor recreation.

 

[Forkyfinder]

Yes, this is from gohunt.

I agree, I'd like to see it leading up to Covid. I'd assume there was a spike in 2020 like there was with a lot of outdoor recreation.

ChatGPT - Wyoming Nonresident Elk Fees

Shared via ChatGPT

chatgpt.com

Unfortunately this looks incorrect? Doesnt really match the numbers. Not sure why

 

[rjthehunter]

ChatGPT - Wyoming Nonresident Elk Fees

Shared via ChatGPT

chatgpt.com

View attachment 371775

Unfortunately this looks incorrect? Doesnt really match the numbers. Not sure why

Those are oddly high numbers.

 

[Forkyfinder]

Those are oddly high numbers.

Wyoming Drawing Conducted for Nonresident Elk Licenses | OutdoorHub

One of the most anticipated drawings of the year for nonresident hunters was conducted last week with 7,252 hunters receiving full-price elk licenses. Another 1,514 reduced-price cow/calf elk licenses were issued. The numbers of licenses issued this year were similar to previous years, but there...

www.outdoorhub.com

A total of 17,704 applicants applied this year, compared to 17,380 in 2012.

Game and Fish wants input on non-resident elk hunting quotas - WyoFile

Agency could update regulations that are more than 30 years old.

wyofile.com

Others, especially outfitters, note the elk population growth and how many non-residents are turned away each year. (In 2017, 23,000 non-residents applied for permits, Brimeyer said.)

Wyoming continues to attract nonresident elk hunters

CODY, Wyo. (AP) — The Wyoming Game and Fish Department is seeing an increase in nonresident elk applications for the 2019 season. The Cody Enterprise reports that nonresidents submitted 23,750 applications, a 2.9 percent increase from 2018. There are 7,250 licenses in the draws available to...

buckrail.com

The Cody Enterprise reports that nonresidents submitted 23,750 applications, a 2.9 percent increase from 2018.

It did provide sources that didnt line up with the graph, oddly.

 

[TOGIE]

yeah i think those numbers are correct

"Gilliland provided some insight into the actual numbers: In the 2022 nonresident elk application period, the Wyoming Game & Fish Department received more than 30,000 applications for 7,250 total nonresident full-price licenses."

https://freerangeamerican.us/wyoming-nonresident-tag-fee-hike

 

[Forkyfinder]

yeah i think those numbers are correct

"Gilliland provided some insight into the actual numbers: In the 2022 nonresident elk application period, the Wyoming Game & Fish Department received more than 30,000 applications for 7,250 total nonresident full-price licenses."

https://freerangeamerican.us/wyoming-nonresident-tag-fee-hike

GOhunt must have miffed somewhere?

Or - is that permit only and not gen tags?

 

[TOGIE]

i don't know why it's like pulling teeth on a rottweiler to simply turn up this data. colorado puts totals on the front page of the draw recap.

 

[rjthehunter]

GOhunt must have miffed somewhere?

Or - is that permit only and not gen tags?

Here's from WY website... This is the random draw.

 

[TOGIE]

Here's from WY website... This is the random draw.

don't forget random will only represent the number of applicant's that didn't draw 1st choice in the preference point draw since every applicant technically runs through the pp draw first. the total first choice apps on the preference point draw recap will represent ALL first choice elk apps.

 

[rjthehunter]

@TOGIE

Here is for the preference points. It's nice that they total these for a guy

 

[Big Fin]

Also, don't forget that there are also 4-5x as many "point buyers" as there are actual applicants shown in the numbers in the preceding posts. Going to take a long time to empty that pipeline at 8,000 NR tags per season. Many of those "point buyers" have double digit points, so they are likely in it for the long haul and pricing might influence when they finally apply, but with 10+ years in the system, not too many of the double digit point holders are going to walk away due to the price.

 

[rjthehunter]

Also, don't forget that there are also 4-5x as many "point buyers" as there are actual applicants shown in the numbers in the preceding posts. Going to take a long time to empty that pipeline at 8,000 NR tags per season. Many of those "point buyers" have double digit points, so they are likely in it for the long haul and pricing might influence when they finally apply, but with 10+ years in the system, not too many of the double digit point holders are going to walk away due to the price.

Sunk cost fallacy. They should just stop buying points now.

Do they consider PP purchases in the total number of NR applicants? I'm leaning towards yes based on what I see.

 

[Forkyfinder]

FYI for those who dont use chatgpt/AI - it provided all of the sources (news articles).

The business model of GOHUNT is going to be pretty flawed - i dont think it would be terribly hard to write a prompt to have it spit out draw odds with appropriate allocations and rules.

 

[TOGIE]

Do they consider PP purchases in the total number of NR applicants? I'm leaning towards yes based on what I see.

not on the draw recap. i do think WYG&F uses the term applicant pretty specifically, because you can only buy points after the draw.

in colorado, an applicant might indeed just have been a point buyer.

 

[Big Fin]

Do they consider PP purchases in the total number of NR applicants? I'm leaning towards yes based on what I see.

Not from the data I see, if I'm understanding your question correctly. They have almost 200K NRs in their elk point system. They have around 24-30K who actually apply for a tag, making the rest of those 200K merely point buyers.

If they included PP purchases in the number of NR applicants, they would have about 200K applicants.

 

[KingOfTagSoup]

I came here to post this.

Applications dropped hard last year. It will be interesting to see what this year does. It debunks a lot of the "People will pay whatever the cost is". Look at that sharp drop. For the regular general draw it went from 8,200 applicants down to 5,500.

For the special, it went from 4,200 down to 1,900.

They just keep cinching the knot on the NRs.

I didn't know this but those are serious drops

 

[rjthehunter]

Not from the data I see, if I'm understanding your question correctly. They have almost 200K NRs in their elk point system. They have around 24-30K who actually apply for a tag, making the rest of those 200K merely point buyers.

If they included PP purchases in the number of NR applicants, they would have about 200K applicants.

200k is a massive number. I wonder how many of those individuals are people who started watching hunting shows, who decided its something they want to try and thought the best way was to start buying points?

Is there any published data showing the current number of people holding points at each level?

I know a couple of people who deer hunt a lot, and buy points to a couple of states, but realistically have no plan or even an idea of how to hunt out west. They started buying points because "everyone" was. They'd be the guy who pushes his SOS button 1/2 a mile from the truck.

 

[Nick87]

200k is a massive number. I wonder how many of those individuals are people who started watching hunting shows, who decided its something they want to try and thought the best way was to start buying points?

Is there any published data showing the current number of people holding points at each level?

I know a couple of people who deer hunt a lot, and buy points to a couple of states, but realistically have no plan or even an idea of how to hunt out west. They started buying points because "everyone" was. They'd be the guy who pushes his SOS button 1/2 a mile from the truck.

I think a lot if them want to go they just don't have the time or budget currently so they buy points in the meantime.

 

[Big Fin]

200k is a massive number. I wonder how many of those individuals are people who started watching hunting shows, who decided its something they want to try and thought the best way was to start buying points?

Is there any published data showing the current number of people holding points at each level?

I know a couple of people who deer hunt a lot, and buy points to a couple of states, but realistically have no plan or even an idea of how to hunt out west. They started buying points because "everyone" was. They'd be the guy who pushes his SOS button 1/2 a mile from the truck.

They've been publishing this information since I can remember. Link here for pronghorn, elk, and deer - https://wgfd.wyo.gov/media/29462/download?inline

I bring it up all the time in our videos, but it seems most people ignore it or I don't make a good enough case as to why that is information to pay attention to. When a state has 25 years of nonresident applicants in their pipeline, it seems like that would be a number to pay attention to if one wants to understand their actual chances for a hard-to-draw tag and why point creep will continue forever.