do we start worying about trump for president?

[North Country]

Trump might not be a perfect candidate but the GOP totally set themselves up for this. If they would have conserved anything in the last two decades things might be different but when you have failed your base so consistently you can't really expect them to keep up support. I do believe that any other candidate from the original 16 GOP in the primary would have gotten steamrolled by Hillary because the typical GOP hacks don't know how to fight for anything, which is really what the GOP base is sick of.

All that aside, the only thing that matters is that our country is in the midst of an existential crisis that people either don't seem to comprehend or they don't want to face the reality of the choice we will make collectively as a nation.

Also, I would advise against trusting the polls. I'm not going to spoon feed but look at the actual numbers of primary votes for the two parties in 2008 and 2012 and the relationship of those numbers to the general election numbers. Then look at the 2016 numbers for the two parties and use the data from the last two elections to make a projection.

 

[antlerradar]

It is likely that both of the current candidates a will be a single term president for a number of reasons. Trump is a buffoon and Clinton is corrupt and that is not likely to change. The president that we need to worry about is the next one if Clinton wins.

To expand on this.

There are a number of reasons that it is likely the next president will lose in 2020.

Both candidates have serious character flaws and that is not going to change. ( could be the understatement of the year)

Both candidates will be near 75 years of age in the next election. The challenger is likely to be 20 or 30 years younger. I could care less about age but many voters vote for the younger candidate. Trump and Clinton will look old and tired and the challenger will be young and full of energy.

Its the economy. The economy runs in cycles often regardless of what happens in Washington. I have heard that the economy (can't remember where) falls into recession every 9 years give or take. The last recession was in 2008/2009. This means that the next president will likely have to deal with a recession. It is likely it will not be there fault but they will get the blame and there is little that the government can due to get the economy moving.

Government spending. This is what Obama did to get us out of the last recession. It worked but the economy is far from great and in the process the national debt has increased to nearly 20 trillion. More debt in the last 7+ years than in the first 200+ years. Clinton is likely to go the spending rout but the debt is a big drag on the economy and getting bigger. It is unlikely that another big spending bill will be as effective as the last one and the last one didn't move the needle very much.
Lowering interest rates. The fed. dropped interest rates last time to give a boost to the economy. This is a good way to help a sick economy but will not be available in the near future. Interest rates are just above 0 now. There is no more room to cut rates.
Print more money. This is what banana republics do and the fed did it last time. The fed must have been desperate. We may not get away with it if it is tried again.
Tax cuts. Clinton will not go there and Trump will try. The truth is that with the bottom 50% paying almost no tax and the top 15% paying almost all of the income tax, tax cuts just don't have the power to stimulate the economy like they did in the days of Reagan and Kennedy.

Clinton will have a tougher road to reelection than Trump.

Clinton's big push is the historic nature of her candidacy. She will be if elected be the first female president. Many are voting for her for this reason alone. Next election that argument is gone if she wins. and to make it even more difficult there is a good chance that the GOP will nominate a Hispanic.

History in not on her side. Only once in the last 60+ years have we elected the same party to the presidency three elections in a row. The last time it happened more than three times was Roosevelt/Truman. Those times were special. The voters just are unwilling to give one party that much power and that is a good thing in my opinion but it will make it difficult for Clinton even if she does a good job.

If Trump wins the public lands transfer will need to go through congress. It is unlikely that a Trump win will bring along many senators. (the GOP just has too many seats to defend). I don't think the transfer is high on Trumps agenda and even if it is introduced the Dem's will certainly block it in the senate likely with the help of some moderate Republicans that are feeling the heat.

If Clinton wins the betting is that Dem's take control of the senate or come very close to control. The transfer issue is dead for four years. It is after that is more worrisome. In two years the Dem's will need to defend something like 25 of the 30 senate seats in play. Only once in recent years has the party that controlled presidency not lost senate seats. (Bush 43 and that was only because of 9 eleven) In four of the last six off year elections the party that controlled the presidency has lost big time. If the economy is not better the Dem's will lose a lot of senate seats in 2018, if the economy is worse it is not out of line to think that the Dem's could lose close to half of the twenty five senate seats. If the GOP picks up a few more senate seats in 2020 with a likely presidential win the GOP could very will have the presidency and a filibuster proof majority in the senate. Think of president Ted Cruz and 60 plus senators. If that doesn't keep you up at night nothing will.

 

[dan.kirkpatrick]

Im planning on a trump vote,,,but Im still on the fence waiting on a definite answer out of the trump camp on our federal land transfer issue before I fully decide.we need to keep it federally in charge so there is no sell off.

 

[LuketheDog]

View attachment 60605

Trump's sons and grandsons are clearly on the right track, hopefully at least some of their attributes came from their father. Chelsea Clinton is shaping up to have all the 'qualities' of her parents...

 

[MattK]

Trump's sons and grandsons are clearly on the right track, hopefully at least some of their attributes came from their father. Chelsea Clinton is shaping up to have all the 'qualities' of her parents...

If Trump's sons got attributes from him it must have been biological. It wasn't from being around him as far as I can tell. They were raised by Ivana and various nannies. They attribute their male role model as their grandfather. As for Chelsea, I'm not sure the bad attributes that she exhibits. She is in a stable relationship and has shown a lot of maturity. I haven't really heard anything negative about her.

 

[Washington Hunter]

Donald Trump is a hard working, patriotic American, and so are all his kids. I'd say he did something right.

And Chelsea, she'll never have to work the rest of her life, as she's supported by her corrupt parents and their scam the "Clinton Foundation."

 

[Squaw Creek]

Long time lurker, first time poster. I really enjoy the site but after reading through this thread I couldn't believe the number of folks trying to justify voting for Shillary and/or not voting and/or voting 3rd party. What is wrong with you people? How isolated from reality are you guys? It's obvious to most that this election is beyond typical partisan politics. This is THE most critical Presidential election in anyone's lifetime on this forum. We either begin restoring the country or become a conquered nation controlled by foreign anti-American interests hellbent on ending America and transforming it into a European-style, feminized, inflated, socialist, degenerate, multicultural hellhole. Don't resign yourselves to defeat! STAND UP AND BE AN AMERICAN

Trump is obviously not perfect but look at the circumstances. The establishment GOP presented NO viable options. This has actually been their strategy for decades now as active enablers of this country's downfall. Someone had to step up. Trump saw an opportunity and acted. HE ACTED. We need more American men like this or you will not recognize your country by the time your children are adults. You need to get past his personality & style and think about how our nation will best survive. Maybe he says politically incorrect things or "mean" things. Who really cares? How soft have we become? He's pro-American trying his best to save the country. Stop listening to the corrupted, drive-by mainstream media attacking his character & sound bites and think about the real issues for yourself!

I understand the Public Lands issue that is near & dear to us all. Note that this issue is at the bottom of Trump's campaign. Probably #49 out of #50 main issues. MT Rep. Congressman Ryan Zinke even pulled out of the GOP convention due to his support of MT public lands as a Republican. Trump will get this right eventually, but it's not an issue most folks from the eastern seaboard understand well. The main point is - WAKE UP. Our country & American way of life are under assault. The urgency and tone of Trump's campaign is righteous and is the healthy response to what has happened to our nation. All you folks that have your little utopias set up in western MT or ID or wherever may not be witnessing the disastrous effects of the Democratic & establishment GOP policies since the 60s (e.g. uncontrolled, unlawful 3rd world immigration to destabilize the nation ... Foreign wars that only benefit other nations ... Exporting US manufacturing to China/Mexico .... Politicians selling out to foreign interests, etc.), but this is a major reality in the bulk of our country now.

If nothing else, consider the long-term future of our country and the future for your children.

 

[jryoung]

'Tis the season for gymnastics, either in Rio or mental.

Exporting US manufacturing to China/Mexico

 

[Washington Hunter]

......

 

[Straight Arrow]

My general perception on this long discussion is that, regardless of stated voting position, most do "get it" ... but just don't like it!

 

[James Riley]

'Tis the season for gymnastics, either in Rio or mental.

NO gymnastics. This media spin is fun but it's stupid and does not "get it." If Mario Andretti wanted to change the rules of racing, his answer is NOT to change his behavior, lose the race, and hope everyone changes their behavior too. Duh! His answer is to work with the establishment rules committee to change the rules to apply to everyone. Hillary is an asshat, playing to stupid people, for suggesting he's wrong to make ties over seas.

Trump is not a hypocrite for taking advantage of laws he disagrees with. He has to take advantage of them in order to compete and not lose. Duh! But, as one who is actually in the arena, he knows the game and is running for President to change the rules. Rules that Hillary wants and which export tie-making jobs overseas. And she is not in the arena. She's a GD politician and always has been. Again, I say "Duh!"

 

[katqanna]

What's that saying, "A picture is worth a 1000 words"?

 

[u1299]

Donald Trump is a hard working, patriotic American, and so are all his kids. I'd say he did something right.

And Chelsea, she'll never have to work the rest of her life, as she's supported by her corrupt parents and their scam the "Clinton Foundation."

I had no intention of getting back on here but did you read Randy's post about stating your opinion and keeping the juvenile snide comments about other peoples opinions out of the discussion? You don't know a damn thing about Chelsea Clinton, or whether she'll have to work a day in her life or not, as a matter of fact I doubt you know a damn thing about Trumps kids either and whether they'll have to work a day in their life either, so quit pretending that you do. You've stated your opinion on this post several times and we all get it, we know where you stand ok? I'm not going to criticize you about your opinions because Randy said not to and I'm good with that, but if you feel the need to let me have it again, fire away but I won't respond in kind, sorry.

 

[James Riley]

What's that saying, "A picture is worth a 1000 words"?

Especially if you can't read.

 

[jryoung]

Trump is not a hypocrite for taking advantage of laws he disagrees with. He has to take advantage of them in order to compete and not lose. Duh! But, as one who is actually in the arena, he knows the game and is running for President to change the rules. Rules that Hillary wants and which export tie-making jobs overseas. Again, I say "Duh!"

I'd argue Trump doesn't want to change these rules that have been brought about by nearly 50 years of consolidation and globalization. It doesn't make sense that he would adopt the GOP strategy of eliminating the Section 199 deduction and not create a penalty for inverting a company. The lower Corporate rate will help offset the desire to invert, but the end of deferral will work against this.

 

[James Riley]

I'd argue Trump doesn't want to change these rules that have been brought about by nearly 50 years of consolidation and globalization. It doesn't make sense that he would adopt the GOP strategy of eliminating the Section 199 deduction and not create a penalty for inverting a company.

This is specifically in reference to international trade agreements. Like NAFTA and TTP. And it WOULD make sense, so long as the rules apply to his competition as well. It seems to me that *most* American business people would love to stay at home but they can't afford to, so long as their competition can get cheap labor in China and Mexico.

 

[RobG]

I appreciate a point of view and am not waging a personal attack, but there are so many errors in Squaw Creek's post that they can't all be addressed. The GOP had more viable candidates than I could count. Trump didn't "act" because of any lack of candidates, he has been trying that last few terms to get the nomination. However, this time he figured out the more outrageous his accusations, the more the R voters embraced him. Bingo, there was his "act." Zinke didn't quit the RNC, in fact he gave a speech there to a nearly empty room. Daines eventually made a brief appearance at the RNC to discuss business unrelated to Trump, but he was going to skip the event to go "fly fishing." Many other republicans didn't attend using ridiculous excuses, obviously a clear signal that they didn't support Trump. He doesn't have the support of any living presidents, and the dead ones are likely rolling in the graves. I don't know why you mention foreign wars - Trump wants to "Bomb the Shit out of ISIS." You could call that war except he also wants to also kill their families so it is actually a war crime. In case you didn't notice, JR crushed your claim about him not exporting jobs to foreign countries. Furthermore, it would be a disaster economically, driving prices through the roof. And that doesn't even consider that he has no power to stop it.

He is anti establishment, but so is Bozeman High School's class of 2018. The main difference is they have a better understanding of how government works.

As for public land, remember Bush's campaign pledge "Read my lips, no new taxes" that he had to eat to keep the government running? The Rs have no respect for Trump and if they want to implement their platform it could be put into a must pass bill. Trump's concern about public lands is minuscule and he isn't going to stand up for them when the going gets tough.

 

[James Riley]

In case you didn't notice, JR crushed your claim about him not exporting jobs to foreign countries.

Point of correction: Squaw Creek did not say Trump had not exported jobs to foreign countries. And I crushed JR's simplistic pictures.

 

[Washington Hunter]

RobG, many, many errors in your post but I'll just address one- this is the first time Trump has ever ran for the Republican nomination. Not sure where you got the idea that "he has been trying the last few terms." In fact he's never ran for ANY political office, until he began his current campaign in 2015.

 

[MattK]

It's odd to me that people cheer for Randy trying to eliminate snide remarks, getting personal, and going off topic on this forum but at the same time cheer for a person like Trump that does all of the above. We call him anti-establishment and saying it like it is but if he were standing in front of you doing the same thing, he would probably get a pot knot on his head. We want to talk about Americans becoming thin skinned and wimpy. I would agree but not in the same sense. We are wimpy...we now allow a candidate to get on a stage and make fun of a crippled reporter, call women names, etc. etc. If we were truly making America great like it used to be in the political arena...there would be a slap in the face, a second would be named and a duel would be held...think Alexander Hamilton. I think we are past the days of duels and have become much more civilized but Trump has proven that we allow (and cheer) for politics that would be abhorred and kicked off the stage in the past. I won't pull him from the stage but I won't cheer either and he sure won't be getting a vote from me. I have come to a realization that politicians lie. I don't like it but I know it happens. I am hopeful that we don't accept a person whose actions Randy wouldn't allow on this website.