I think
@Oak has hit the real issue with the charts he posted.
Look at the changes in numbers. The same pattern would be found if you posted the 2005 v. 2022 comparison for mule deer in just about every western state, for pronghorn in Arizona and Wyoming, for sheep in MT, for moose in MT/WY/ID, and a lot of other species.
It should force us to ask the question - Are we going to spend our effort increasing wildlife numbers through habitat and other management, or are we content to fight over the scraps until such time there is nothing left to fight about.
As a non-resident in 49 other states, I'm very concerned about wildlife in every one of those states. And for my own selfish reasons, I am very concerned about wildlife numbers in the states I apply for hunting tags as a non-resident, knowing any opportunity I might have a chance to apply for is a function of two things; 1) Herd numbers and what harvestable surplus exists, and 2) generosity of the residents of that state to share some of the surplus with non-residents. Both of those are driven by higher herd numbers.
I have used a chart similar to what Oak has provided when I talk about mule deer in Nevada and pronghorn in Wyoming. I am somewhat confused as to the "meh" response from most non-residents who might provide comments. Many discount it and go back to arguing about how their points have been devalued.
I know folks get tired of hearing it, but if we want to double our draw odds, the easiest route is to double the number of animals on the landscape.
If we want to make it about fighting over tags, point schemes, and other shiny distractions, I suspect non-residents will be the first to take the hits. I am growing more and more convinced that point schemes have contributed to our focus on how to improve our odds without thinking of the herds. Almost as if buying points and licenses entitles us (res and non-res) to something that doesn't exists; a harvestable surplus.
Marcus and I did a Fresh Tracks weekly on this same topic on Monday. I think it publishes today or tomorrow. I fully expect to get hammered for saying once again, build a bigger pie and a lot of the problems are solved.
I'm good friends with the author of the article in the OP, Tony Peterson. We talk about this a lot. We both agree that there are no immediate solutions, but without rebounding herd numbers, non-residents should expect less opportunity at higher cost.