Covid Points Creep “Whiplash?”

[EastTNHunter]

Question to all of you with more knowledge and experience about this than me (that would be all of you ). I keep hearing about points creep, and that it really accelerated this year due to so many being off of work from Covid. How many of you think that it may “correct itself” just a little next year since a lot of people cashed in points? I don’t know if “whiplash” is too extreme of an analogy, but maybe a slight dip in the rate of growth?

 

[HiMtnHntr]

Sounds like you have some hope. I would just go with that...

 

[El Jason]

I doubt it. The only thing that will temporarily correct it is a major recession.

 

[Deleted member 28227]

I think a lot of people didn’t apply with the uncertainty, COVID hit right around app season.

I’m sure it will just continue like normal...

 

[406LIFE]

Applications were up dramatically across the west. It will be a bit before the numbers are parsed to see if it was by low point or high point holders. I hvlave yet to deep dive into this for myself, but first glance I think next year will be similar. I expect another stimulus check, which I think was a factor in increasing hunting out west ($1200 is just about right for a DIY trip and if you weren't hurting you probably spent it). I also think point holders will be more likely to burn points as circumstances reveal lower tag numbers in the future (looking at CO and ID). Then there is the always unfolding drama that while national numbers of hunters appear to fall, pressure out west continues to increase.

WY antelope used to be an every year idea, now it's more like every other year. You can probably extrapolate from that other states' and species' likely trajectory.

 

[WapitiBob]

Go back and read the same posts for the last 5 years and all the things that “for sure” will cause a drop in applications. Unless all those COVID deaths were people applying for tags there isn’t going to be a decline, and there certainly won’t be a decline in Wyoming.

 

[EastTNHunter]

Well, maybe I was just hoping too much

 

[Gr8bawana]

I think a lot of people didn’t apply with the uncertainty, COVID hit right around app season.

I’m sure it will just continue like normal...

I applied this year in my state for bonus points only for all the big game animals I normally apply for because we didn't know how this thing would play out.
I'm sure a lot of other people did the same thing so I doubt I'll be ahead of the game as far as bonus points go for next years apps.

 

[Glockster]

Even with covid and the dip in the market this summer there was still a record numbers of apps. Unless they were right about the number of deaths from Covid after all or an astroid hits I wouldn’t plan on getting better anytime soon.

If I’ve learned anything from this year it is stocks only go up and applications only increase.

 

[Bluffgruff]

Short answer is there will be no decrease and unlikely to change trajectory overall. Point creep and increasing applications are probably here to stay. People who like to hunt out west can scrape together the cash to do so regardless of the economy as long as they didn't lose their job or their home. The number of people buying points just goes up, so there is a huge pool of people waiting "until they can draw." The people who jumped in last year will probably continue to apply this year, and most people who didn't draw have one more point, and more people will jump in this year, and people who drew will get right back into the points game.

 

[Steve in Canton]

Even with covid and the dip in the market this summer there was still a record numbers of apps. Unless they were right about the number of deaths from Covid after all or an astroid hits I wouldn’t plan on getting better anytime soon.

If I’ve learned anything from this year it is stocks only go up and applications only increase.

What dip in the market. It has boomed throughout the pandemic

 

[Oak]

 

[Pucky Freak]

I predict an increase in apps, but a smaller increase than between 2019 and 2020, for no other reason than people had extra time on their hands this year with a lot of other types of activities off the table due to COVID.

 

[mtmiller]

View attachment 164100

8K = "dip"

 

[Glockster]

What dip in the market. It has boomed throughout the pandemic

What dip in the market. It has boomed throughout the pandemic

The dip on 3/23, but yes money has been made all year

 

[thusby]

The whiplash might happen in Idaho due to price increases but who knows. A stinky bull moose for $2800 seems a little extreme.

 

[Glockster]

The whiplash might happen in Idaho due to price increases but who knows. A stinky bull moose for $2800 seems a little extreme.

I would bet Idaho sells out just as fast if not faster this year.

 

[winmag]

I would bet Idaho sells out just as fast if not faster this year.

Well, based on how the Idaho tags are selling today, I'd say demand is up and will stay up for many years to come.

 

[Buffs35]

Non-res tags and application fees could quadruple in price and the creep would continue.

 

[ccc23454]

Point creep is a terminal problem: for the best hunts either the applicants or system dies. So aim low and hunt as much and when you can