Covid Points Creep “Whiplash?”

Fortunately there are plenty of ways to hunt multiple species every year without accruing points. I've had just as good hunts with 0 or 1 point as I have with higher point hunts. Every tag, every unit, every state has potential. Other than colorado moose, I will never play the point game.
 
rmyoung1 said:
Generally speaking, you might be right. But if you’re a Colorado mule deer applicant, buckle up. With these 2021 season dates, I think point creep is gonna be severe for almost all of those 2nd, 3rd, and 4th seasons west of I-25.
Click to expand...

That's why I burned my deer point this year :)

I believe the 2022 season will see dramatic backward movement in required points because of what's going to happen this coming year.
 
Point creep will get worse every year in states with Preference Point systems. It's just a function of the number of point buyers compared to actual applicants.

I am surprised by the number of people "surprised by point creep." It is so obvious if we look at the numbers in Preference Point states. If we look at the history in Colorado, the first state with a PP system, every other state is following suit, just a function of degrees, with "degrees" being what percentage of their tags are subject to PP system and how long the system has been in place.

Wyoming is following Colorado to a T, though not quite as fast, given 25% of Wyoming tags are issued randomly. Utah is following the same path, just as bad for some species, as demand is just so high relative to tags issued, even though only half the tags are on a true PP system. Arizona is seeing the same thing as it relates to the 20% that is given away based on max points.

The point creep is not due to new people jumping in. Point Creep is due to how many people have been in the game a long time and are on the sideline buying points, or as I call them, "Point Buyers." These are the folks creating point creep.

I have an upcoming podcast with Brady Miller and a YouTube video I've scripted that goes into this topic in a lot of details. Brady and I have pondered this issues for the last four years, as to why folks are so surprised about point creep. We have both concluded, maybe incorrectly, that folks are not looking at how many Point Buyers have been accumulating on the sidelines for the last 10-25 years and are now jumping into the game and actually applying for tags.

I'll use Utah elk as my example because it illustrates what I'm talking about. I'll use Matthew, who has 16 Utah elk points last year and will have 17 this year.

UT DWR issues reports that show how many non-residents are in the tunnel applying for elk tags in Utah. Pages 185 and 186 at this link, showing applicants by point level and "point buyers" at point level.

One report is the point buying crowd and at what point level they are at. When measured across all point layers, there are almost as many non-residents buying points for elk in Utah as actually apply for elk - 16,423 point buyers last year, compared to 17,958 who actually apply for the 274 tags that were issued to non-residents last year.

Some are riding the possibility of drawing a random tag, of which there were 157 random tags last year and 17,841 people applied for a draw odds of .88%. About what the draw odds are in many of the raffles sponsored by conservation groups.

When you break that out by point layers, it gets very revealing and really disappointing if you think you are close to a tag in Utah. I'll try to explain

If I use Matthew's point pool of 16 points last year, 890 people applied who had more points that him. The folks above him drew 69 of the bonus permits and 8 of the random permits, so when I take those 77 people out of the pool, there are still 813 of last year's applicants ahead of him for 2021. That seems bad enough, but when I show below where the true point creep comes from, it is eye opening.

Like most states, the "Point Buyers" are usually the folks who have been in the game the longest. Utah is a perfect example. This next paragraph is why point creep in Utah (every PP state for that matter) should not be a surprise.

At the point levels above Matthew (17+), there were 1,378 folks who just bought points. Ouch. Those people don't show up if you only look at last year's application percentages, as they aren't included in the 2020 applicant numbers.

For 2020, there were way more non-residents with more points than Matthew who just bought points, compared to those who actually applied (890). Read that again - THERE ARE 55% MORE PEOPLE BUYING POINTS AT 17+ THAN ACTUALLY APPLY FOR THE TAGS.

^^^^^That is where point creep comes from. Ignore that large pool of Point Buyers and it makes sense why a person might be surprised at point creep. Keep tabs on those Point Buyers and point creep makes complete sense.

When I add those point buyers, who will someday jump in and apply, to the numbers of 17+ point holders who applied last year, I get 2,191 people in the Utah system that have more points that Matthew, who has 17 after last year. If I only looked at the 2020 applicant pool I would be way off in my expectation of point creep as I am only considering the 813 people still above Matthew and I am disregarding the other 1,378 above Matthew who are Point Buyers.

That pile of "Point Buyers" is where point creep comes from. It is that pool of long time applicants, those I call "point buyers," that newer applicants should be looking at to get a feel of what level of point creep will really be there.

If you look at Wyoming, Oregon, Arizona, and Colorado, it is the same as what I showed in the Utah elk example, just a bit varied depending upon the species, how long the system has been in place, and what percentage of tags are subject to a Preference Point system. And the percentage of "Point Buyers" at the high point levels in those states mirrors what I showed in Utah.

Brady and I have spent a lot of time on this topic. He is finalizing a goHUNT INSIDER strategy article that will highlight all of this by state and species, hopefully lowering the frustration level folks are expressing when it comes to point creep.

Unless all those high point holders who are just buying points decide to get out of the system, expect point creep to get worse every single year. Plan accordingly.

Good luck in 2021.
 
It will be interesting to see the dynamic of high point holders eventually getting a bit of a push towards finally drawing when the early point buyers start to age out (too old to realistically hunt the tag or they die). Maybe seeing more of this in the next 5-10 years or so for CO?
 
ElkFever2 said:
It will be interesting to see the dynamic of high point holders eventually getting a bit of a push towards finally drawing when the early point buyers start to age out (too old to realistically hunt the tag or they die). Maybe seeing more of this in the next 5-10 years or so for CO?
Click to expand...
That will be very interesting to observe. For my own example, I am one of those problem point buyers for Utah pronghorn. They have season dates that conflict with late September hunts high on my list, so every year I buy another point, now at 22. Will I start to age out and those be a waste? I doubt it, but I've done some rather dumb things in my life.

When I see the person with 31 elk points in Arizona just buying another point every year, it causes me to ask, "He accumulating these point to hunt or to die with them?" He/she could have any elk tag in Arizona, but he/she buys another point each year. Will he/she "age out?"
 
None of this has gave me a warm and fuzzy feeling. Point creep only increases, Tag demand only increases. If we get 2,000 covid cash instead of 600, just forget about it this year.
 
Thank you Randy for clarifying this for people's future planning. I have been very close attention to everything you and other's have been saying for the past three years. I have been a point buyer in several states but also use my points regularly for SHORT, MEDIUM, and LONG term games you speak of very often. There are always opportunities out west to hunt, it just won't be the 80+ inch unit you might hope.

I think people get their hopes up pretty high (especially eastern hunters) that there is a 80" buck behind every sage bush and herds will walk right up to you for the bow/rifle shot. After their first couple years of traveling out west, they learn it ain't all peaches and cream and either shift to just buying points until they can draw that "trophy" unit, or just stop hunting altogether out west.
 
This shows what randy is talking about for Oregon Elk; "point saver" is a point only purchase here. These people never applied for a hunt.

far right columns; point level, total point savers, and nr point savers

Untitled.jpg
 
Big Fin said:
That will be very interesting to observe. For my own example, I am one of those problem point buyers for Utah pronghorn. They have season dates that conflict with late September hunts high on my list, so every year I buy another point, now at 22. Will I start to age out and those be a waste? I doubt it, but I've done some rather dumb things in my life.

When I see the person with 31 elk points in Arizona just buying another point every year, it causes me to ask, "He accumulating these point to hunt or to die with them?" He/she could have any elk tag in Arizona, but he/she buys another point each year. Will he/she "age out?"
Click to expand...
Wouldn't surprise me if some of those folks don't intend to hunt at all. My wife has a coworker that's put in for at least one LQ drawing that I know of with absolutely no intention of hunting the tag if she got it.

My best friends GPA has one point shy of max points on sheep in Wyoming. He's 15 years past any kind of sheep hunting shape but he's still accruing points. We've finally got him convinced to donate the tag I think.
 
Big Fin said:
Point creep will get worse every year in states with Preference Point systems. It's just a function of the number of point buyers compared to actual applicants.

I am surprised by the number of people "surprised by point creep." It is so obvious if we look at the numbers in Preference Point states. If we look at the history in Colorado, the first state with a PP system, every other state is following suit, just a function of degrees, with "degrees" being what percentage of their tags are subject to PP system and how long the system has been in place.

Wyoming is following Colorado to a T, though not quite as fast, given 25% of Wyoming tags are issued randomly. Utah is following the same path, just as bad for some species, as demand is just so high relative to tags issued, even though only half the tags are on a true PP system. Arizona is seeing the same thing as it relates to the 20% that is given away based on max points.

The point creep is not due to new people jumping in. Point Creep is due to how many people have been in the game a long time and are on the sideline buying points, or as I call them, "Point Buyers." These are the folks creating point creep.

I have an upcoming podcast with Brady Miller and a YouTube video I've scripted that goes into this topic in a lot of details. Brady and I have pondered this issues for the last four years, as to why folks are so surprised about point creep. We have both concluded, maybe incorrectly, that folks are not looking at how many Point Buyers have been accumulating on the sidelines for the last 10-25 years and are now jumping into the game and actually applying for tags.

I'll use Utah elk as my example because it illustrates what I'm talking about. I'll use Matthew, who has 16 Utah elk points last year and will have 17 this year.

UT DWR issues reports that show how many non-residents are in the tunnel applying for elk tags in Utah. Pages 185 and 186 at this link, showing applicants by point level and "point buyers" at point level.

One report is the point buying crowd and at what point level they are at. When measured across all point layers, there are almost as many non-residents buying points for elk in Utah as actually apply for elk - 16,423 point buyers last year, compared to 17,958 who actually apply for the 274 tags that were issued to non-residents last year.

Some are riding the possibility of drawing a random tag, of which there were 157 random tags last year and 17,841 people applied for a draw odds of .88%. About what the draw odds are in many of the raffles sponsored by conservation groups.

When you break that out by point layers, it gets very revealing and really disappointing if you think you are close to a tag in Utah. I'll try to explain

If I use Matthew's point pool of 16 points last year, 890 people applied who had more points that him. The folks above him drew 69 of the bonus permits and 8 of the random permits, so when I take those 77 people out of the pool, there are still 813 of last year's applicants ahead of him for 2021. That seems bad enough, but when I show below where the true point creep comes from, it is eye opening.

Like most states, the "Point Buyers" are usually the folks who have been in the game the longest. Utah is a perfect example. This next paragraph is why point creep in Utah (every PP state for that matter) should not be a surprise.

At the point levels above Matthew (17+), there were 1,378 folks who just bought points. Ouch. Those people don't show up if you only look at last year's application percentages, as they aren't included in the 2020 applicant numbers.

For 2020, there were way more non-residents with more points than Matthew who just bought points, compared to those who actually applied (890). Read that again - THERE ARE 55% MORE PEOPLE BUYING POINTS AT 17+ THAN ACTUALLY APPLY FOR THE TAGS.

^^^^^That is where point creep comes from. Ignore that large pool of Point Buyers and it makes sense why a person might be surprised at point creep. Keep tabs on those Point Buyers and point creep makes complete sense.

When I add those point buyers, who will someday jump in and apply, to the numbers of 17+ point holders who applied last year, I get 2,191 people in the Utah system that have more points that Matthew, who has 17 after last year. If I only looked at the 2020 applicant pool I would be way off in my expectation of point creep as I am only considering the 813 people still above Matthew and I am disregarding the other 1,378 above Matthew who are Point Buyers.

That pile of "Point Buyers" is where point creep comes from. It is that pool of long time applicants, those I call "point buyers," that newer applicants should be looking at to get a feel of what level of point creep will really be there.

If you look at Wyoming, Oregon, Arizona, and Colorado, it is the same as what I showed in the Utah elk example, just a bit varied depending upon the species, how long the system has been in place, and what percentage of tags are subject to a Preference Point system. And the percentage of "Point Buyers" at the high point levels in those states mirrors what I showed in Utah.

Brady and I have spent a lot of time on this topic. He is finalizing a goHUNT INSIDER strategy article that will highlight all of this by state and species, hopefully lowering the frustration level folks are expressing when it comes to point creep.

Unless all those high point holders who are just buying points decide to get out of the system, expect point creep to get worse every single year. Plan accordingly.

Good luck in 2021.
Click to expand...
Your analysis has merit, but you're getting off in the weeds here. Point creep comes from one simple thing, period. When demand exceeds supply, and the gap between the two is growing larger, you will get point creep. This includes when that Newberg guy encourages people to apply for out of state hunts, but the number of tags available stays the same.

I would actually argue that the point buyers are slowing point creep. Every time a high point holder buys a point instead of applying for a tag, a lower point holder gets a tag sooner than he would have if everyone applied for a tag. Of course, if you have an event where a bunch of point buyers decide to jump into the drawing in the same year, it will drive some point creep, but that's really only manifesting a buildup of demand that was already present.

The solution to point creep is one thing: Put more animals on the mountains so we can offer more tags.

QQ
 
QuazyQuinton said:
Your analysis has merit, but you're getting off in the weeds here. Point creep comes from one simple thing, period. When demand exceeds supply, and the gap between the two is growing larger, you will get point creep. This includes when that Newberg guy encourages people to apply for out of state hunts, but the number of tags available stays the same.

I would actually argue that the point buyers are slowing point creep. Every time a high point holder buys a point instead of applying for a tag, a lower point holder gets a tag sooner than he would have if everyone applied for a tag. Of course, if you have an event where a bunch of point buyers decide to jump into the drawing in the same year, it will drive some point creep, but that's really only manifesting a buildup of demand that was already present.

The solution to point creep is one thing: Put more animals on the mountains so we can offer more tags.

QQ
Click to expand...
Or less hunters.
 
I wish most states would require that you only acquire a point if you apply for a tag and are unsuccessful. Never gonna happen, states make millions selling points.
 
The biggest thing that drives point creep is bonus/preference point systems. You want point creep to go away? Do away with the point systems...$200 non refundable application fee per species. No more point creep and the tire kickers quit applying for points for themselves, grandma, little johnnie, and the neighbor kids.
 
BuzzH said:
The biggest thing that drives point creep is bonus/preference point systems. You want point creep to go away? Do away with the point systems...$200 non refundable application fee per species. No more point creep and the tire kickers quit applying for points for themselves, grandma, little johnnie, and the neighbor kids.
Click to expand...
I’d be in favor of a complete random draw. If nothing else switch the preference points systems to a bonus points system to at least get rid of the point creep
 
Very interesting reading. I keep things simple, and just think of my points strategy as a way to be able to get a tag in the future. Not a better tag just a tag that might be easy to draw today but takes 3 - 5 points in the near future. An example is WY general elk, was possible as a second choice a few years ago and now I’m glad I have 4 points so I can get that tag again.
 
Big Fin said:
That will be very interesting to observe. For my own example, I am one of those problem point buyers for Utah pronghorn. They have season dates that conflict with late September hunts high on my list, so every year I buy another point, now at 22. Will I start to age out and those be a waste? I doubt it, but I've done some rather dumb things in my life.

When I see the person with 31 elk points in Arizona just buying another point every year, it causes me to ask, "He accumulating these point to hunt or to die with them?" He/she could have any elk tag in Arizona, but he/she buys another point each year. Will he/she "age out?"
Click to expand...
I think there is no bigger noodle baker in all of western hunting than CO bears.

CO has super liberal bear hunting, 3 tags now in a pile of units. Non-Res tags are $100

Almost every single tag is OTC for the general season and limited but typically 100% draw for the September rifle season.

1 unit - 61, requires 3 pts for a NR to Draw

1 unit 851 has a wildlife management area in that has it's own tag. That unit typically gives out 1 tag a year for NR.

Last year it was draw by 1 NR with 18 points.

Yet.... Bear Point holders going into the draw below

Only thing I can come up with is there are a ton of knuckleheads who just buy every species and don't even look at the regs.

In CO you only have to buy a point once every 10 years to hold your points.

So Randy to up your AZ example there are people in CO with 20+ points who don't really have anything to spend them on who are going to die with them...

1609108568492.png
 
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