Corona virus Impact on draw odds
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rmyoung1
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I don’t think there is any doubt. Fewer applications this year compared to last. I know I’m a small sample size but I withdrew my WY elk app this week. Hate to do things like that but my family has bigger fish to fry with my wife’s ophthalmology practice at a standstill. And I know we are far from alone
Valley1320
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Me being lucky enough to work in a meat processing/custom butcher shop I have stayed plenty busy and it has not impacted me at all. Therefore I was able to put in for all the hunts I usually do. I do know some guys are putting in for about half of what they usually put in for. For the non-residents putting in for other states it will really help them... Not sure how much it will impact resident hunters...
AvidIndoorsman
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I will eat crow if I’m wrong but I am putting my money on massive resident point creep.
People are out of the office or work, they have a ton of time to thing about better times to come aka hunting and planning their next trip and the planning is getting them through. Although things considered in-state western tags are cheap.
I posted this on other the other thread but this is exactly what happened 07-09 .
I predicted NR tags are down 25% for elk and down 5-10% for MSG in states with app dates after April, up in states with Jan- March, though the same rate as normal.
Resident tags 10% up for MSG. I think the number of res apps will be similar for elk and deer but days in the field will go up 50%.
I think CO turkey is going to be a shit show and harvest will be up 20% from last year due to average days in field going up 20-40%.
People are out of the office or work, they have a ton of time to thing about better times to come aka hunting and planning their next trip and the planning is getting them through. Although things considered in-state western tags are cheap.
I posted this on other the other thread but this is exactly what happened 07-09 .
I predicted NR tags are down 25% for elk and down 5-10% for MSG in states with app dates after April, up in states with Jan- March, though the same rate as normal.
Resident tags 10% up for MSG. I think the number of res apps will be similar for elk and deer but days in the field will go up 50%.
I think CO turkey is going to be a shit show and harvest will be up 20% from last year due to average days in field going up 20-40%.
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Bigjay73
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I wish you would put a little thought into your responses
I agree with all of your points, will be interesting to revisit this at the end of the year. I'm really not looking forward to turkey season, I hope we're wrong .
Jape
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totally agree. I think there are plenty NR that want to take advantage of the opportunity but the economic impact is real.
AvidIndoorsman
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I wish you would put a little thought into your responses
I agree with all of your points, will be interesting to revisit this at the end of the year. I'm really not looking forward to turkey season, I hope we're wrong .
CO elk
2007
2008
2009
AvidIndoorsman
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Agree. A NR probably isn't going to blow 2-5K on an out of state elk hunt. But a Resident is going to take their unemployment check and head into the woods. Lot of people are going to be hunting for meat.
The felt impact will be greatest in states with lots of NR op, eg CO elk huge impact, NM elk barely any.
If you are a NR this is the time to apply for MSG in states that dedicated NR quotas, ie "shall issue x% of tags" rather than "up to x% of tags".
For NR I would focus on tags that are tough hunts, and or less desirable. Ewes, nannies, cow moose, some of the bison tags or low density tags. Again, if the state doesn't have a fixed allocation you are gonna get hosed. The apps for the best units aren't going to budge much, but a tag that usually is 20% success, might drop to 80% success.
Just my prediction, I could be 100% full of crap.
SAJ-99
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MT cancelled hunters ed classes, which is a requirement for hunters born after a certain date. If you are a NR that needs that it may be a problem in the draw. Hopefully it all get sorted out, but who knows at this point.
I think it will be a year when odds for non-residents do show a slight increase, especially in states that had later deadlines. Nevada, Colorado, Montana, and Idaho would likely show the biggest increase. I would project the same for Wyoming, if not for the proposed tag cuts in some of the better deer and antelope units.
Like a lot of things in the hunting world, points systems, PTO, etc. the deck is somewhat stacked in favor of us older farts when the economy take a dive. I've spent 25 years building a slush fund for hunting apps, adding money every month like it is a a vehicle payment. The account now has enough to fund more tag apps than even above-average luck will ever draw in my life. Not because I am some great investment guru, rather because time is on the side of those who are disciplined and know the value of budgeting.
As I did my Wyoming bison application this week, the most expensive tag I apply for, I almost stopped when it came time to pay. Just seems lavish to be spending/fronting that amount of money in times like this. I rationalized the decision by reminding myself that this is why I saved X dollars every month since I was 30 years old. I can assure you, if I was younger and at a different point in my financial life, the bison tag application would have been less expensive than the divorce that might have ensued.
It will be interesting to revisit this thread in July, once these final states are done with their draws.
Like a lot of things in the hunting world, points systems, PTO, etc. the deck is somewhat stacked in favor of us older farts when the economy take a dive. I've spent 25 years building a slush fund for hunting apps, adding money every month like it is a a vehicle payment. The account now has enough to fund more tag apps than even above-average luck will ever draw in my life. Not because I am some great investment guru, rather because time is on the side of those who are disciplined and know the value of budgeting.
As I did my Wyoming bison application this week, the most expensive tag I apply for, I almost stopped when it came time to pay. Just seems lavish to be spending/fronting that amount of money in times like this. I rationalized the decision by reminding myself that this is why I saved X dollars every month since I was 30 years old. I can assure you, if I was younger and at a different point in my financial life, the bison tag application would have been less expensive than the divorce that might have ensued.
It will be interesting to revisit this thread in July, once these final states are done with their draws.
AvidIndoorsman
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Bigjay73
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I'm fortunate that my finances haven't, and most likely wont change, but also take pause before purchasing non essentials, or planning trips during this time. Just feels wrong when so many are out of work.
D
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There are online classes available through a few different states
I am petitioning the Corona virus to infect non max point holders at a higher rate. Just thowing it out there.
I am applying across the board same as always. Whatever happens happens. If can go or this all gets worse...wont be the first time i lost money on something and wont be the last
I am applying across the board same as always. Whatever happens happens. If can go or this all gets worse...wont be the first time i lost money on something and wont be the last
I think it will be interesting for sure. For those that can still afford it I think pto May come into play if people are having to burn pto for the shelter in place orders or to take care of kids no longer in school. That being said I think the returned tags in Colorado could get real interesting! And when it comes to spring turkey if the shelter in place orders still stand I have always said hunting is my grocery store run which falls under the essential classification.
D
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I could definitely be wrong but my general prediction is that resident draw odds will improve noticeably in lower and mid tier units that lie far from population centers. I think the long shot units will remain be close to years past. I think people will be sticking closer to home for personal and financial reasons. Even if things end up being rosier by fall, I don't think many guys will be feeling that way about life before the end of app season. I expect second elk tags, and doe lope/deer tags will be much easier to draw than years past for residents and nonres alike.
Far out of my wheelhouse, but seeing these unemployment numbers and projections it just has to have a huge impact on NR app numbers across the board. Highly desirable states will see less impact, which is why I've argued WY G&F's best long term financial play is to maintain robust hunting opportunity for success on bucks and bulls.
Even my relatively well off friends in Jackson are thinking a lot more about family and savings accounts than spare time/money of any kind.
Far out of my wheelhouse, but seeing these unemployment numbers and projections it just has to have a huge impact on NR app numbers across the board. Highly desirable states will see less impact, which is why I've argued WY G&F's best long term financial play is to maintain robust hunting opportunity for success on bucks and bulls.
Even my relatively well off friends in Jackson are thinking a lot more about family and savings accounts than spare time/money of any kind.
I just withdrew my 2 son's Wy Elk apps today as well. The company I work for makes lenses for glasses for practices like your wife's. Our daily orders are down from 3500 a day to under 500. Lay'd off workers at my plant now out number the one's left working.
