SAJ-99
Well-known member
Saudis think otherwise, or they did in 2014-2015. Given they are the global low cost producer, I put a lot of weight on their opinion.
https://money.cnn.com/2015/01/12/investing/oil-prices-saudi-prince/index.html
Biden Administration stops ANWR development
- Thread starter 44hunter45
- Start date
https://money.cnn.com/2015/01/12/investing/oil-prices-saudi-prince/index.html
SAJ-99
Well-known member
That is not the way it works. You don't get a choice. They don't label gasoline as "from Texas" or plastics as "from Saudi oil". It's a totally fungible commodity. Even with the expansion of fracking, the US still imports Saudi oil. That happens even while we export oil to other countries. I'm not sure how that will ever change. The consumer just doesn't get a choice.
Benfromalbuquerque
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That’s awful that they couldn’t do a better job of managing tailings. But that’s already established so why not continue to extract? Save ANWR for the pristine ecosystem and all for now as it’s good to enjoy and also great to know we have it should it become necessary. Canadian Federal gov’t should get funding for those First Nations people too. It’ll be fine. Like look at KY. They had barren strip-mined waste fields that they reclaimed and today? Elk. We all remember Exxon-Valdez, but viable commercial fishery today despite the lingering effects. Alberta is established and should remain that way. And #*^@#* Saudi Arabia.Oooookay. So as an American resident and given a choice where MY oil/gasoline/diesel/plastic/ect comes from. Alaska, Saudi Arabia, or the Alberta Tar Sands, I'm choosing Alaska.
Alberta, Canada's oil sands is the world's most destructive oil operation—and it's growing
Can Canada develop its climate leadership and its lucrative oil sands too?api.nationalgeographic.com
BigHornRam
Well-known member
Recognizing that they are getting paid in monopoly money now the Saudi Prince has had a change of opinion. They may even start asking for it in bitcoin.
AvidIndoorsman
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Supply - Demand Economics
Option 1. Keep oil below $70 (arbitrary number), if your OPEC + Russia you do this by cranking up capacity, they absolutely have it. This price point (probably more like $55-65 WTI) keeps lots of areas in the US uneconomic, thus reduced US market share, the US doesn’t prorate oil production (though we have tried in the past) so our industry will produce flat out as long as we can make money.
Option 2. Allow oil to hit $100+ (this as you noted happened) part of it was no one thought US shale had the capacity it does, partly OPEC + Russia liked the money. Produced in the US skyrocketed, drilling happened in all the fringe basins, expanded drilling in Tier 3 Utah, WY, AK, OK, Texas, all kinds of weird stuff, water flood projects in Oklahoma, etc. The world over produced prices crashed.
2020 was a blackswan event where OPEC + Russia saw the writing on the wall about US shale over extension and then saw a crash in demand from Covid and decided to double down and crush the US, it kinda worked oil prices crashed you saw negative day prices (-$37 Brent) with prices in the market hovering in the high $20 low $30 for months.
It killed a pile of companies but also hurt OPEC + Russia.
My guess is that on a go forward OPEC will chose option 1 and Wall Street won’t invest in companies like Roan who died in a blazing glory of debt, so essentially forcing the US market to follow option 1 as well.
People get greedy though so you never know
BigHornRam
Well-known member
I think that the Saudi's, Biden, and the rest of the globalist are going to work together to raise the price of oil. Russia is the wild card in that strategy. We will see what happens soon enough.Supply - Demand Economics
Option 1. Keep oil below $70 (arbitrary number), if your OPEC + Russia you do this by cranking up capacity, they absolutely have it. This price point (probably more like $55-65 WTI) keeps lots of areas in the US uneconomic, thus reduced US market share, the US doesn’t prorate oil production (though we have tried in the past) so our industry will produce flat out as long as we can make money.
Option 2. Allow oil to hit $100+ (this as you noted happened) part of it was no one thought US shale had the capacity it does, partly OPEC + Russia liked the money. Produced in the US skyrocketed, drilling happened in all the fringe basins, expanded drilling in Tier 3 Utah, WY, AK, OK, Texas, all kinds of weird stuff, water flood projects in Oklahoma, etc. The world over produced prices crashed.
2020 was a blackswan event where OPEC + Russia saw the writing on the wall about US shale over extension and then saw a crash in demand from Covid and decided to double down and crush the US, it kinda worked oil prices crashed you saw negative day prices (-$37 Brent) with prices in the market hovering in the high $20 low $30 for months.
It killed a pile of companies but also hurt OPEC + Russia.
My guess is that on a go forward OPEC will chose option 1 and Wall Street won’t invest in companies like Roan who died in a blazing glory of debt, so essentially forcing the US market to follow option 1 as well.
People get greedy though so you never know
AvidIndoorsman
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I think tossing Biden in there would make more sense if he had any control over us production. He can’t exactly say, hey guys can we keep production to 9,000,000 barrels this year I made a deal with the Saudi’s.
BigHornRam
Well-known member
He likely already has buy in that keeping production down will bring prices up. It's in their best interest after all. Produce less and make a profit or produce more and keep losing money. Tough decision there.
AvidIndoorsman
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We could always try invading Iraq again... worked last time
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AvidIndoorsman
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BigHornRam
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More likely Iran.We could always try invading Iraq again... worked last time
US launches airstrike, bombs Syrian facilities used by Iran-backed militia
The airstrike was the first military action undertaken by the Biden administration, which in its first weeks has emphasized its intent to put more focus on the challenges posed by China
BigHornRam
Well-known member
Joe "threading the needle" with Saudi Arabia.
www.nytimes.com
Bet that was an exciting call.....
"But the king is 85 and in poor health, and it was unclear to administration officials how much he absorbed as Mr. Biden talked about a “recalibration” of the relationship with the United States."
Biden Won’t Penalize Saudi Crown Prince Over Khashoggi’s Killing, Fearing Relations Breach (Published 2021)
The decision will disappoint the human rights community and members of his own party who complained during the Trump administration that the U.S. was failing to hold Mohammed bin Salman accountable.
Bet that was an exciting call.....
"But the king is 85 and in poor health, and it was unclear to administration officials how much he absorbed as Mr. Biden talked about a “recalibration” of the relationship with the United States."
BigHornRam
Well-known member
Yo! Venezuela. Hold my beer.
Divided Senate Passes Biden’s Pandemic Aid Plan (Published 2021)
The chamber approved the package after a grueling marathon of amendment votes and last-ditch negotiations. The measure must now clear the House a second time.
BigHornRam
Well-known member
Rising oil prices no bueno for India.
oilprice.com
India: OPEC+ Decision Could Derail Oil Demand Recovery | OilPrice.com
The world’s third-largest oil importer, India, is concerned that Thursday’s OPEC+ decision not to lift oil production in April could hurt the consumption-led recovery in oil demand
oilprice.com
BigHornRam
Well-known member
This one agrees with both of us @wllm1313
www.npr.org
Hold That Drill: Why Wall Street Wants Energy Companies To Pump Less Oil, Not More
After bankrolling oil companies for years and seeing poor returns, investors are now pressuring companies to keep their oil output lower, instead of higher.
www.npr.org
AvidIndoorsman
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That article syncs up pretty much exactly with my company and our banks thinking.This one agrees with both of us @wllm1313
Hold That Drill: Why Wall Street Wants Energy Companies To Pump Less Oil, Not More
After bankrolling oil companies for years and seeing poor returns, investors are now pressuring companies to keep their oil output lower, instead of higher.
Seems that you, like me, are really interested in Energy.
When I got my first job in the OG industry I had a Landman, who became my mentor, come into my office and say, "You seem to know a lot about computers but not much about Oil, read the first two so you don't look like a moron when you go to lunch with the big boys and the third because it's entertaining as hell"
The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money and Power by Daniel Yergin
Petroleum Politics and the Texas Railroad Commission by David F. Prindle
The Big Rich by Bryan Burrough
As you probably guessed I ate them up, and I love learning and thinking about energy. If your looking for something to read all three are worth your time.
shrapnel
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AvidIndoorsman
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Biden Administration Defends Huge Alaska Oil Drilling Project (Published 2021)
The administration says the country must pivot away from fossil fuels but backed a project set to produce more than 100,000 barrels of oil each day for 30 years.
Big Slick
Well-known member
We just need all of our industry in China, not in our back yards. Destroy the planet else where, no need to worry about regulatory rules to keep things on an even keel. Just don’t do it where I live/hunt. That’s what I’m hearing.....
They should use the broken concrete to build some road base in the Rez.
