Anybody Buying Yet? Where’s the Bottom?

[Sytes]

I played INTC... Bought naked $80 Dec 18. Needless to say, My "hobby account" evaporated! I should have, could have, would have, but didn't place a few Puts to counter the IV crush. and it CRUSHED my account into thin air, laughing along the way! Haha! hind sight? Wipe out! Haha!

Time to work some overtime, replenish my beating, and see IF I might have learned something...

 

[Nick87]

Read and watched a few things about AI bubble probability this morning, thoughts?

 

[SAJ-99]

Yes, probably mini bubble. You have as good of view as anyone. Let us know when the future projects aren’t mostly
Data centers. Maybe investors are seeing a reduction in earnings growth for AI names and reevaluating what they were paying for that growth.

This looks like normal pre-election reduction in net exposure by some larger players. Result is long exposures go down, shorts go up. Some rotation into defensive- HC, RE, Util, ConSt. It could all reverse next week regardless and of election result. Just no one wants to be caught with their pants around their ankles if some crazy stuff goes on.

Can’t explain action in metals. Happy to listen if anyone has a theory.

 

[Nick87]

You have as good of view as anyone.

Yah but my view is only one sample region. Which also seems to be very data center friendly.

 

[SAJ-99]

Yah but my view is only one sample region. Which also seems to be very data center friendly.

That’s all anyone’s view is. You also have more expensive real estate than other places. You will see if the increase in cost of capital slows the build. It certainly can’t keep up this pace forever.

 

[Forkyfinder]

Which also seems to be very data center friendly.

Lots of areas seemingly are...

 

[SAJ-99]

Yah but my view is only one sample region. Which also seems to be very data center friendly.

I should also point out that tax incentives on new permits were paused on July 1 in Illinois. So we will see.

Giving these companies tax breaks is just stupid. What happens when local communities see the reduction in tax revenue, they will go crying to the state because they can't fund the schools. Short term gain is long term pain. Politicians specialize in that I guess.

 

[Nick87]

I should also point out that tax incentives on new permits were paused on July 1 in Illinois. So we will see.

Giving these companies tax breaks is just stupid. What happens when local communities see the reduction in tax revenue, they will go crying to the state because they can't fund the schools. Short term gain is long term pain. Politicians specialize in that I guess.

My guess is that will be pulled next Wednesday if the election goes as usual.

 

[Bonasababy]

Intereating news tidbit...seems AI folks are contributing heavily to political candidates. More of their money is going to democrats though...seems they want more regulation! Smart, IMO.

 

[thusby]

Overregulation, the pathway to prosperity!

 

[Bonasababy]

Overregulation, the pathway to prosperity!

No regulation, the path to construction killing controversy, denied permits, higher costs for taxpayers, and more.

 

[Jack Ryan]

Easy come, easy go.

 

[Wildabeest]

Or maybe the donors think the Dems are going to be in control in the not too distance future. Corporate donors are generally more pragmatic than political. They’re buying influence not an ideology.

 

[noisy]

Read and watched a few things about AI bubble probability this morning, thoughts?

If it's anything like most bubbles, it will burst, then slowly build back to far exceed what it was.

 

[mevertsen]

Yes, probably mini bubble. You have as good of view as anyone. Let us know when the future projects aren’t mostly
Data centers. Maybe investors are seeing a reduction in earnings growth for AI names and reevaluating what they were paying for that growth.

This looks like normal pre-election reduction in net exposure by some larger players. Result is long exposures go down, shorts go up. Some rotation into defensive- HC, RE, Util, ConSt. It could all reverse next week regardless and of election result. Just no one wants to be caught with their pants around their ankles if some crazy stuff goes on.

Can’t explain action in metals. Happy to listen if anyone has a theory.

Re : metals

Are you just referring to the drop in price?

My take....

The world went screwy in February.

People panicked thinking they were going to need silver and gold to barter for bread.

It didn't happen, people started selling, and as time has gone on, inflation has continued upward, people keep selling their physical bullion, taking losses amd moving on with life, because they realized gas station and grocery stores don't accept silver coins.

Combine that with the paper holders dumping their postions in the last few weeks and converting to bonds. (It's least tha tmakes the most sense to me where the paper bullion money would go).

I can say the exploration, mining and investment here in Central Nevada has not slowed. Cash price for extaction last I looked was $1500 at the most. There is still a lot of downside for it to go before the major players go broke. And we truly do need the physical metals for electronics, solar, data, etc.

Squirrel thought. The recent dip in gold might actually be tied to the drop in the AI stocks (data centers builds and PM's needed for that?)