Anybody Buying Yet? Where’s the Bottom?

[SAJ-99]

I mean he's not wrong, your posts seem to focus on the negative.

Correct. You have to focus on the risks in order to see them. Every FA should be focused on the negative stuff. The entire industry gets paid on you doing nothing, so they sell the optimism. For most people, that is fine. 10 years from now the chance of the market being higher than it is today is probably 98%.

 

[jryoung]

The stock market right now is like making out on your girlfriend’s couch on a Friday night—the vibes are incredible, the line charts are going up. But you know that at any moment her Mom (Interest Rates/bonds) could come home early from a mahjong party with the girls or Dad (Inflation/gas prices) decides to bail on his bowling league.

 

[Nameless Range]

The stock market right now is like making out on your girlfriend’s couch on a Friday night—the vibes are incredible, the line charts are going up. But you know that at any moment her Mom (Interest Rates/bonds) could come home early from a mahjong party with the girls or Dad (Inflation/gas prices) decides to bail on his bowling league.

It's a quickie or it's nothing, you forgot your rubbers, and 9 months from now life might be very different.

 

[SAJ-99]

I mean he's not wrong, your posts seem to focus on the negative.

I think most people frame the question wrong. They see it as In or Out. The question really is where do you put the next incremental dollar.
The YTD is A/O 6/30. it is going to look different for 9/30. Small Caps are interest rate sensitive and have given back 5%. International has held up better and should move higher in the column. But this chart measures the past. The questions depend on the future.

 

[rogerthat]

The stock market right now is like making out on your girlfriend’s couch on a Friday night—the vibes are incredible, the line charts are going up. But you know that at any moment her Mom (Interest Rates/bonds) could come home early from a mahjong party with the girls or Dad (Inflation/gas prices) decides to bail on his bowling league.

I like this. Put me firmly in the “this markets getting the 12 gauge shoved up its butt at some point.” I remember the excesses of the dot com bubble. We are somewhere in that timeframe. Never been clearer to me. This isn’t a time to be greedy if your into long term wealth building

 

[jryoung]

Except two different tales of tech earnings. Cisco traded at 100x forward P/E, the NASDAQ 100 was ~60x. Megas and the 100 are in the 24-26x range currently.

 

[rogerthat]

Margin debt is up 77%. That’s good enough for me. I would argue the earnings picture is murky at best with the extended depreciation and sbc treatment. So who knows what comparative pe’s from these two periods stack up.

 

[jryoung]

Margin debt is up 77%. That’s good enough for me. I would argue the earnings picture is murky at best with the extended depreciation and sbc treatment. So who knows what comparative pe’s from these two periods stack up.

I won't argue margin debt, leverage is a real risk just ask Leopold Aschenbrenner. But, for SBC this is accounted for in NON-GAAP v. GAAP accounting, and SBC increases cash flow for tax purposes. I always get a laugh when folk cry "these companies didn't pay any income taxes" when SBC is one of their biggest deductions due to increasing stock prices...they probably think ASC 718/FAS123R is a car part or the next passenger airline from Boeing.

 

[Jack Ryan]

I sold some SPY, QQQ, bought some BRK, SPCX. Added some cash to a little pile.

Nothing that is going to make or break the machine.

 

[SAJ-99]

Except two different tales of tech earnings. Cisco traded at 100x forward P/E, the NASDAQ 100 was ~60x. Megas and the 100 are in the 24-26x range currently.

Sure, that is legit. But it misses the point. The market looks forward. Q2 earnings were amazing and QQQ is lower.

Below is the chart (credit: Yardeni) that sticks with me. The Blue line (earnings) is with inflation, the Red line is GDP minus inflation. It is pretty odd to see these go in different directions. The economy is 'meh" and the earnings are awesome. Sorry, but I don't think that can keep going. Only way it can is the "benefits" of AI have to start showing up in non-tech earnings.

(I hate the word "bubble". If I want to sound like Cramer, there is always a bubble somewhere. I am looking for tomorrow's bubble.)

 

[Bonasababy]

You up for the risk and willing to wait quite a while?

That one has a chance to get permitted--in a decade or so. Company seems open to changes unlike some others that just dump huge sums into PR and refuse to alter their plans. Located in a very wet area of the state near the Miss River and Lakes and lots of wetlands. They intend to pull the ore up and ship it elsewhere for processing. Been saying North Dakota, but Miichigan--who has much more lax water quality regs--is much more likely IMO.

EIS in the works right now. Hotly contested due to the copper and location. Wild Rice and the local NA band plays a big part in it.

What you need to know about the Talon Metals plan to mine metals for EVs in Minnesota

Talon's plan is a milestone for the company's Tamarack Nickel Project. It’s also a new chapter in a long and thorny debate between those who fear possible water pollution and those eyeing potential job creation.

www.minnpost.com

Tamarack Water Alliance

Tamarack Water Alliance seeks to preserve the water quality in the Tamarack Minnesota and Mississippi River watershed.

tamarackwateralliance.org

Yep...

https://www.startribune.com/aitkin-county-nickel-mine-would-ship-ore-to-michigan-dropping-north-dakota-plan/601889413?utm_source=gift

 

[Goatshoes]

I sold some SPY, QQQ, bought some BRK, SPCX. Added some cash to a little pile.

Nothing that is going to make or break the machine.

I like this move. Shows some conviction. Good to see that BRK is moving upward again after a long period of going nowhere.

 

[Flatrock]

if 25bp then market falls by end of day. Reason? Not likely more hikes are not needed and slowing inflation is going to take a larger increment and more of them.

If raises a full 100bp then I expect the market to jump by end of day. If 50 bp then about flat by end of day.

If it's 25, yea that's possible. Assuming they go 25, it will be interesting to see if longer term interest rates move much. Would be very interesting if they went 50. If they went 100, I bet the Dow would go down 1,500+. I'd bet every penny I have that they don't go 100.

 

[rogerthat]

If it's 25, yea that's possible. Assuming they go 25, it will be interesting to see if longer term interest rates move much. Would be very interesting if they went 50. If they went 100, I bet the Dow would go down 1,500+. I'd bet every penny I have that they don't go 100.

I wouldn’t bet every penny on 25. Whatever prediction markets I have in my Robinhood shows 82 for 25 bps 17 for hold steady and 2 for raise more than 25

 

[Flatrock]

I wouldn’t bet every penny on 25. Whatever prediction markets I have in my Robinhood shows 82 for 25 bps 17 for hold steady and 2 for raise more than 25

I didn't. I said I'd bet that they don't go 100. I previously said I expect them to go 25.

 

[Bonasababy]

Interest rate increase looming, multiple sources say.

 

[brymoore]

Quarter point raise by the Fed.

 

[Flatrock]

Quarter point raise by the Fed.

I can't wait for Trump's response.

 

[Straight Arrow]

I can't wait for Trump's response.

You're fired!