Anybody Buying Yet? Where’s the Bottom?

[SAJ-99]

I mean he's not wrong, your posts seem to focus on the negative.

Correct. You have to focus on the risks in order to see them. Every FA should be focused on the negative stuff. The entire industry gets paid on you doing nothing, so they sell the optimism. For most people, that is fine. 10 years from now the chance of the market being higher than it is today is probably 98%.

 

[jryoung]

The stock market right now is like making out on your girlfriend’s couch on a Friday night—the vibes are incredible, the line charts are going up. But you know that at any moment her Mom (Interest Rates/bonds) could come home early from a mahjong party with the girls or Dad (Inflation/gas prices) decides to bail on his bowling league.

 

[Nameless Range]

The stock market right now is like making out on your girlfriend’s couch on a Friday night—the vibes are incredible, the line charts are going up. But you know that at any moment her Mom (Interest Rates/bonds) could come home early from a mahjong party with the girls or Dad (Inflation/gas prices) decides to bail on his bowling league.

It's a quickie or it's nothing, you forgot your rubbers, and 9 months from now life might be very different.

 

[SAJ-99]

I mean he's not wrong, your posts seem to focus on the negative.

I think most people frame the question wrong. They see it as In or Out. The question really is where do you put the next incremental dollar.
The YTD is A/O 6/30. it is going to look different for 9/30. Small Caps are interest rate sensitive and have given back 5%. International has held up better and should move higher in the column. But this chart measures the past. The questions depend on the future.

 

[rogerthat]

The stock market right now is like making out on your girlfriend’s couch on a Friday night—the vibes are incredible, the line charts are going up. But you know that at any moment her Mom (Interest Rates/bonds) could come home early from a mahjong party with the girls or Dad (Inflation/gas prices) decides to bail on his bowling league.

I like this. Put me firmly in the “this markets getting the 12 gauge shoved up its butt at some point.” I remember the excesses of the dot com bubble. We are somewhere in that timeframe. Never been clearer to me. This isn’t a time to be greedy if your into long term wealth building

 

[jryoung]

Except two different tales of tech earnings. Cisco traded at 100x forward P/E, the NASDAQ 100 was ~60x. Megas and the 100 are in the 24-26x range currently.

 

[rogerthat]

Margin debt is up 77%. That’s good enough for me. I would argue the earnings picture is murky at best with the extended depreciation and sbc treatment. So who knows what comparative pe’s from these two periods stack up.