Anybody Buying Yet? Where’s the Bottom?

[Mallardsx2]

I’ve been saying this for years.

The only way that you won’t be left in the dust financially is to make sure that you hitch your wagon to the world‘s most powerful horses.

If you don’t, you’re going to be left sitting there….wondering where everyone went.

If the horses die, you won’t be any worse off than what you were going to be anyhow.

 

[SAJ-99]

I’ve been saying this for years.

The only way that you won’t be left in the dust financially is to make sure that you hitch your wagon to the world‘s most powerful horses.

If you don’t, you’re going to be left sitting there….wondering here everyone went.

If the horses die, you won’t be any worse often than what you were going to be anyhow.

Seems @PoleX is a good horse to hitch to.

 

[Nick87]

Seems @PoleX is a good horse to hitch to.

Right. May hire him as my FA.

 

[Irrelevant]

I’m having a hard time complaining…View attachment 417070

Well you've got me beat, my best is only 26.7% ytd

 

[Mallardsx2]

I’m having a hard time complaining…View attachment 417070

If my 401(k) jumped by that much I would walk my computer directly out into my front yard and empty my 308 into it until I was completely out of all of the 308 ammo I possess.

Just saying.

 

[Exhausted]

I’m having a hard time complaining…View attachment 417070

Found the rest of the screenshot



I kid, I kid.

 

[PoleX]

I’m laying low through the fed announcement…watching 10yr. Here’s my AIngenerated cheat sheet:

I dca’d into AI/chips for the last 5 years. Took some off the top and went against my conservative nature and yolo’d into SaaS as I posted about back in June. I bought like 20k worth of deep in the money call options...every dog has its day. FA's and I don't get along very well.

 

[Jack Ryan]

Every loser comes with his own excuse.

 

[BuzzH]

I’ve been saying this for years.

The only way that you won’t be left in the dust financially is to make sure that you hitch your wagon to the world‘s most powerful horses.

If you don’t, you’re going to be left sitting there….wondering where everyone went.

If the horses die, you won’t be any worse often than what you were going to be anyhow.

Worth reading that twice...totally agree.

 

[Flatrock]

I’m not the expert that many of you are, but I don’t see how the market has not had a serious correction. There are so many negative forces right now. Any thoughts? Do we inflate the bubble more before it pops? Am I totally out of touch with what’s going on?

Same here

It feels like a giant oak dining room table has a missing leg, so the decision has been to hold up that corner with a toothpick.

Seems about right. The one positive the market has going for it is that earnings are great. Some of that is from accounting "magic", but Energy earnings are real - ask anyone who drives a gas vehicle. Maybe another positive is the market has become too big to fail. Retired people (at least those who invested) are spending like crazy and young people can't buy a house so they YOLO it is the stock market to Kalshi bets. What could go wrong?

What is undeniable is the equity risk premium (expected excess returns to bonds given the risk taken), has compressed a lot with the 10yr bond going to 5%.

Am I the only one who is positive on the market? Seems like there are always waaaaay more negative posts here on the overall market than positive. There are ALWAYS things to worry about but the vast majority of them don't matter. Hence why I am nearly always positive.

A 10% correction is just normal and always a possibility but I'm buying here. Would probably put on more leverage on a pullback.

 

[brymoore]

Am I the only one who is positive on the market? Seems like there are always waaaaay more negative posts here on the overall market than positive. There are ALWAYS things to worry about but the vast majority of them don't matter. Hence why I am nearly always positive.

A 10% correction is just normal and always a possibility but I'm buying here. Would probably put on more leverage on a pullback.

I’m cautiously positive. There’s always two sides to a coin. Nephew bought his first house recently on his own without help. Basic two income couple out of college situation. I have another similar first house situation locally. New home buyers continue to exist. Company financials have been strong overall. Fed seems to remain independent. Employment remains full at 4.1%.

My concern would be the information I see lags by a quarter, mostly. Fuel costs are a problem until they aren’t.

 

[SAJ-99]

Am I the only one who is positive on the market? Seems like there are always waaaaay more negative posts here on the overall market than positive. There are ALWAYS things to worry about but the vast majority of them don't matter. Hence why I am nearly always positive.

A 10% correction is just normal and always a possibility but I'm buying here. Would probably put on more leverage on a pullback.

I guess I'm positive, but not overly so. The things to worry about do matter in short to medium run - inflation, rates, etc. If interest rates get high enough to attract capital, that is capital that doesn't go into the stock market. It is never a matter of 'if' I'm in the market. It's a question of what size and what markets.

10% correction? When was that? I would love to buy it as well. We are down 2% off ATH.

 

[Sytes]

AI is the massive market driver along with strong earnings with positive outlooks. My retirement TSP is making hand over fist $$$ though the challenge with that - it's a strong flag volatility flag (imho), be it a correction (10-15%) or a softening of the inflation rate miraculously occurs w/o fed stepping in.
I believe (basic joe opinion) we are going to feel a dip before the Fed makes the announcement - fear is too high that rates are going to be used to temper the inflation and a correction drop if rates are used to temper the setting. Tommorw creeped up quick...

What to do... 2.5 from retirement. I have been pressing hard on Large 60% and small cap 40% though I've moved 40% to the G fund to hold over for 2-3 year use once my madatory retirement kicks in while the 60% continues to ride the large cap world, stepping out of the "big beautiful" small cap epi-center soon to hit.

Mallard mentioned the strong horses... agree. small cap gains are sweet though - those ponies may tire out. Morgans and clyds for the pulling...