Anybody Buying Yet? Where’s the Bottom?

[mtmiller]

I chickened out a bit on both S and I as well, but kept about 10% invested in them. Hard to get away from and bet against the C.

Yeah, that Buffett guy seems to have pretty good advice. I was 100% C '19 until VERA decision.

 

[Flatrock]

In other news, WSJ today says tech companies’ AI spending is $3 trillion higher than it seems (a lot of $$$ not on the balance sheets), and Iran kept duping the White House about peace while secretly preparing for a greater conflict with Iran initiating it.

Add to that Russia testing EU defenses via cyberattacks or otherwise, and our low missle/munitions count while China sits backs and watches the show, could make for a fun next year.

How so? From a stock market perspective or just from a world events pov?

 

[Drake4]

I was just looking at numbers last week. I'm up over 20% 1-Year, 15% 3-Year, 12% YTD and pretty dang conservative.
Pretty impossible to not be making money right now.

 

[jryoung]

Pretty impossible to not be making money right now.

Leupold Aschenbrenner gave it a hell of a go.

 

[Matthew57]

I like listening to Jack Bogle and Buffet’s stuff and neither seemed to push International so I’m not invested in any International as of yet. Might need to think more about it, but I’m pretty happy with what I have right now.

 

[SAJ-99]

In other news, WSJ today says tech companies’ AI spending is $3 trillion higher than it seems (a lot of $$$ not on the balance sheets), and Iran kept duping the White House about peace while secretly preparing for a greater conflict with Iran initiating it.

Add to that Russia testing EU defenses via cyberattacks or otherwise, and our low missle/munitions count while China sits backs and watches the show, could make for a fun next year.

Need to read the article when I get back home. When S&P earnings grow at 15% yoy and GDP is at a 1.5% pace, it is time to ask questions. That certainly isn’t sustainable and we should be cautious about paying 20x+ for forward earnings. The good news is people just keep throwing their money at the market….and sports betting apparently. We all keep dancing as long as the music is playing.

 

[Sytes]

It's doing good considering/in spite of all the orange nonsense.

Not as good as orange 1.0 and 3 of 4 years under Biden.

Yes! Popping along the incredible buying opportunities from the Covid world! Absolutely an awesome upswing value! Add to that - the past year of non covid significant upswing and --- looks great with 15-20% added towards our TSP, 401, etc.

As for politics, for those not happy with Trump, Biden, whomever... We give farrr too much credit to the tenacious ability/inability of a single President, IMO. Trump would be an example, Biden, another. Select industry termed upswing or downturn - it's a singular factor in a global economy that keep the green machine wheeling along the uneven sidewalk.
YMMV.

 

[Bonasababy]

I was just looking at numbers last week. I'm up over 20% 1-Year, 15% 3-Year, 12% YTD and pretty dang conservative.
Pretty impossible to not be making money right now.

Again....bonds! Anyone?

 

[Drake4]

Right now ...26% Bonds, 30% Foreign, 44% Domestic
Have a couple other investments that differ a bit and heavier in bonds. All are doing great.

 

[Bonasababy]

I like listening to Jack Bogle and Buffet’s stuff and neither seemed to push International so I’m not invested in any International as of yet. Might need to think more about it, but I’m pretty happy with what I have right now.

For years I agreed with that, but as noted earlier the pros increasingly dont.

What I have heard from multiple folks at Fidelity and Vanguard is that the issue is room to grow...international equities simply have more of it than US.

I had kind of a hybrid approach for our retirement funds, but the entry limit rules for the managed bond portion have not kept up with my conservative withdrawal needs. Last year they were ok, but thanks to our wispy haired leader they have sunk hard. Room to increase equities wasnt there so I agreed to turn it all over to fidelity for a bit higher fee and a bit lower bond % in the mix.

I will see once everything settles but the target was 30-40 % foreign in the equity portion. And they said that was lower than it had been in recent years.

 

[Bonasababy]

I chickened out a bit on both S and I as well, but kept about 10% invested in them. Hard to get away from and bet against the C.

The only thing I keep thinking about is what if someone less insane was in charge? Considering all the attempts to tank everything, still not doing bad.

I look at it as how much better we would be doing...he's sure kept us from contributing much more than the minimum into the economy...not our plan for our go go early retirement years and know we arent alone.

 

[npaden]

Holy cow on Moderna today!

 

[noharleyyet]

Holy cow on Moderna today!

Moderna, Merck cancer vaccine shows promise in late-stage trial; Moderna stock more than doubles

The combination regimen significantly extended the time patients lived without their melanoma returning, compared with Keytruda alone.

www.cnbc.com

 

[SAJ-99]

Again....bonds! Anyone?

Bessent is on the situation.

https://www.reuters.com/world/us-treasury-double-sizes-some-debt-buyback-operations-least-4-billion-2026-08-19/

 

[homers]

Most of the S&P 500 companies may be US companies but have significant parts of their business international.

 

[SAJ-99]

Moderna, Merck cancer vaccine shows promise in late-stage trial; Moderna stock more than doubles

The combination regimen significantly extended the time patients lived without their melanoma returning, compared with Keytruda alone.

www.cnbc.com

Puts RFK and the FDA in a bit of a pickle.

 

[BuzzH]

Most of the S&P 500 companies may be US companies but have significant parts of their business international.

Correct, why I don't have much more exposure to the I fund.

 

[BuzzH]

Puts RFK and the FDA in a bit of a pickle.

Does it really though? They live somewhere between denial and fantasyland.

 

[Nick87]

Does it really though? They live somewhere between denial and fantasyland.

Seems to be a trend amongst that position lately.

 

[SAJ-99]

Does it really though? They live somewhere between denial and fantasyland.

Can’t argue with that. The Replimune saga is case study in the government trading Americans health for some BS position that we just need to eat more granola or something.