Anybody Buying Yet? Where’s the Bottom?

[Big Sky Guy]

On the Figma IPO, I got all 5 I requested at $33. Sold 2 at $100 right after IPO and held 3 (which was dumb, but I’m still up $100 on the whole deal). One thing I don’t know, if I requested 100 of SpaceX, would I have gotten 20 or still just 1. Guess we’ll never know.

That's amazing. Good for you. This is basically what I was trying to find out, if playing IPO's at a larger scale can be a quick and easy way to boost your retirement account. Take the double digit gains day of and put right back in whatever index floats your boat. Will keep an eye out for the Anthropic IPO and decide accordingly.

 

[jryoung]

Here's one for you rookies out there to learn from. I put in to purchase some Rivian stock at the IPO just above what they were speculating it would open at. Apparently it flew by the price too quickly for my sale to be executed. I was bummed, then forgot about it. Apparently I needed to cancel it based on the way/type of request I made, but didn't. So like a week or two later I get a notification that my sale executed... as it was in free fall. Total kick to the nuts, by the next day it was so low that it wasn't even worth trying to sell it.

It goes the other way too. In late April I had a buy on CRDO at $165, with a stop loss at $157. It trended up for a couple weeks and I though I made a good purchase...then dropped and trigged by sale.....now a couple weeks later it's at $255. Most annoying 5% loss ever.

 

[noharleyyet]

Just damn...

1,000,000,000,000 (that’s 1 trillion), in graphics

How to think about the latest big number to make headlines.

www.nbcnews.com

 

[SAJ-99]

That's amazing. Good for you. This is basically what I was trying to find out, if playing IPO's at a larger scale can be a quick and easy way to boost your retirement account. Take the double digit gains day of and put right back in whatever index floats your boat. Will keep an eye out for the Anthropic IPO and decide accordingly.

I think GoA pointed this out, you don't get to do it for long. They don't like flippers. And in the end, you might not get enough shares to make a huge impact on your portfolio. Not all IPOs go up. Setting that initial price can be more difficult than you would think (UBER comes to mind).

Hard to make any judgement off opening day but SPCX 25% jump seems a bit much. I guess Elon doesn't care because he is worth $1T either way. Buyers are paying for 2028 revenue estimates at this point.

 

[SAJ-99]

That's amazing. Good for you. This is basically what I was trying to find out, if playing IPO's at a larger scale can be a quick and easy way to boost your retirement account. Take the double digit gains day of and put right back in whatever index floats your boat. Will keep an eye out for the Anthropic IPO and decide accordingly.

I should add that I think retail allocations in IPOs will increase. A lot of institutional portfolios already own the stocks in their private placement/venture allocations so they are probably less willing to buy more at the IPO. I guess we will know in pretty short time.

 

[Treeshark]

Peace in the Middle East, futures are GREEN!

 

[Pucky Freak]

Watching the market very closely today. As of Friday the complete overhaul of my portfolio on 1/26 and 1/28 is up around 6.9-7.1%. I have a plan to sell the entire portfolio again and move to bonds, treasury, and large cap income, then hold that until the next crash/correction. With a little luck the ~7% will push to 8 or 9% depending on how the market opens.

 

[Treeshark]

As of Friday the complete overhaul of my portfolio on 1/26 and 1/28 is up around 6.9-7.1%.

What is the S&P 400 at since 1/28?

 

[Pucky Freak]

What is the S&P 400 at since 1/28?

Right around 10-10.5% - In hindsight would have make more not diversifying.

Today I made 1/2 the trades in the hour the market opened capturing about another 1.1-1.2%. The mutual funds making up the remaining 1/2 and they settle at the end of trading today.

 

[Treeshark]

Timing the market… always a bold strategy

*Just looked- I think that the S&P 400 is actually up around 15% since end of January.

 

[Big Sky Guy]

Timing the market… always a bold strategy

*Just looked- I think that the S&P 400 is actually up around 15% since end of January.

I think you keep making a typo but you’ve done it twice so have to ask if there is a joke or reference to using 400 instead of 500? I’ve joked and called it the S&P 7 a few times but never seen or heard 400.

 

[Treeshark]

I think you keep making a typo but you’ve done it twice so have to ask if there is a joke or reference to using 400 instead of 500?

It is a reference to where @Pucky Freak said his investments were tracking in a post he made this spring.

 

[Big Sky Guy]

Right around 10-10.5% - In hindsight would have make more not diversifying.

Today I made 1/2 the trades in the hour the market opened capturing about another 1.1-1.2%. The mutual funds making up the remaining 1/2 and they settle at the end of trading today.

Do you work in Washington DC? Curious why/how you think now is time to prepare for crash. Just since everything near or at ATH’s?

 

[Big Sky Guy]

It is a reference to where @Pucky Freak said his investments were tracking in a post he made this spring.

Ahh, ok that makes sense. Did he make a typo or was he trying to avoid the 100 biggest or something? I’ve heard of funds that exclude some of the larger makeups but given what I’ve seen and understand would think those would significantly underperform the entire market S&P 500 funds?

 

[Treeshark]

Did he make a typo or was he trying to avoid the 100 biggest or something?

I assume not, they are two different things (Large Cap vs Mid Cap).

 

[Pucky Freak]

Timing the market… always a bold strategy

*Just looked- I think that the S&P 400 is actually up around 15% since end of January.

Forgive me, 13%


Market out, dropped throughout the day - better napkin math ended at approx 7.47% for the non-ETF’s

 

[Pucky Freak]

Do you work in Washington DC? Curious why/how you think now is time to prepare for crash. Just since everything near or at ATH’s?

DC? No. ATH, political volatility, AI colonization, a hunch. Crash could be too strong a word. Maybe major correction. The US could end up with the one ring to rule them all w/ a tech giant ushering in market domination super-intelligence AI sending markets into the stratosphere - and I’d miss it.

Timing the market is dangerous and doesn’t pan out - I know this objectively. Yet here I am doing it. Today I think was the 5th time in 27 years.

#1 was pulling out just before the dotcom bust - had to have my parent sign off on it for my college savings. The absolute dollar amt was tiny, so no real impact.

#2 Was buying aggressively near the bottom of the COVID crash for my parents - they recently cashed out and they’re set for retirement. Major impact.

Since then, it depends how you define success. If it means buying low selling high, then yea. If it means compared to keeping everything the same, then it is a mixed bag, as illustrated by the move from S&P400 (my arbitrarily-selected aggressive investment 10+ years ago).

 

[Bonasababy]

Really interesting fed announcement today. Holding steady on rates, no more telegraphing of future fed intent...BUT nearly half of them inducated a future INCREASE in interest rates will be needed. Some said more than one increase by the end of the year.

 

[SAJ-99]

Really interesting fed announcement today. Holding steady on rates, no more telegraphing of future fed intent...BUT nearly half of them inducated a future INCREASE in interest rates will be needed. Some said more than one increase by the end of the year.

Warsh: less information and transparency will reduce market volatility.

Market: Hold my beer.

 

[noharleyyet]

Warsh: less information and transparency will reduce market volatility.

Market: Hold my beer.

*New Chair appointment imminent...