Anybody Buying Yet? Where’s the Bottom?

[BigHornRam]

Looking to add a little here. Cherry picking through exposures. Just like to keep you informed so you know I'm not always thinking one way or another. Reasoning - Down over 5%, so "on sale-ish", March is often a seasonal bottom, Tax selling season will end, option expiration tomorrow will switch hedging flows (kind of depends on how investors hedge going for forward, so this is fluid). Still remains mostly about a stretch of water in the Middle East, but can't bet much on that. I'm certainly going to have to hold my nose to buy some of the stuff. Housing stocks, Financials, healthcare, tech, pretty much everything but Energy is oversold, yet still only down modestly. Crazy in a lot of ways.

Tesla is the canary in the coal mine for me. When that thing starts tanking, time to run for cover.

 

[jryoung]

Feels like you could do a lot worse than adding a bit of Visa, MC or AMEX right now.

 

[406dn]

I heard this morning, with CNBC in the background, that our national debt stands at $39 trillion. It increased by $1 trillion is just the last five months. I guess that would be ~$200 billion/month, ~$46 billion/week, ~$6.6billion/day. The per capita share of debt is ~$113,000.

While I am left of center generally, the fiscal recklessness of our government/ society has bothered me my entire adult life.

The debt has increased by $2.8 trillion dollars since Trump took office. That's about 7% of all of the debt the nation has incurred. The big beautiful bill will accelerate the growth of the debt, going forward.

Where this leads us, idk, but it won't be a good day, if we ever have trouble convincing people and governments to loan the US money.

We've whistled past the graveyard for a good long time. My best guess is that is the plan, if there is one.

 

[npaden]

I couldn't figure out why my Roth IRA was green today. Forgot that I had some LITE shares in there from a LONG LONG time ago when it was JDS Uniphase. 1,000% return in the last year isn't terrible. Up 20% this week with all the other stuff stinking.

 

[jryoung]

I couldn't figure out why my Roth IRA was green today. Forgot that I had some LITE shares in there from a LONG LONG time ago when it was JDS Uniphase. 1,000% return in the last year isn't terrible. Up 20% this week with all the other stuff stinking.

JDSU, that's a throwback, they were my client when I was at PwC from 2005-2010. They were a stinking pile of shit back then suffering from the merger of JDS and Uniphase and legacy woes from the .com bubble.

 

[BigHornRam]

I heard this morning, with CNBC in the background, that our national debt stands at $39 trillion. It increased by $1 trillion is just the last five months. I guess that would be ~$200 billion/month, ~$46 billion/week, ~$6.6billion/day. The per capita share of debt is ~$113,000.

While I am left of center generally, the fiscal recklessness of our government/ society has bothered me my entire adult life.

The debt has increased by $2.8 trillion dollars since Trump took office. That's about 7% of all of the debt the nation has incurred. The big beautiful bill will accelerate the growth of the debt, going forward.

Where this leads us, idk, but it won't be a good day, if we ever have trouble convincing people and governments to loan the US money.

We've whistled past the graveyard for a good long time. My best guess is that is the plan, if there is one.

The country is deep in debt. Cities are deep in debt. Citizens are deep in debt. It's a problem.

Chicago’s $41 billion financial hole exposes city’s pension crisis | Illinois | thecentersquare.com https://share.google/AHh46Nxrif6uVOuDU

 

[npaden]

JDSU, that's a throwback, they were my client when I was at PwC from 2005-2010. They were a stinking pile of shit back then suffering from the merger of JDS and Uniphase and legacy woes from the .com bubble.

That's why I was shocked that it was green today. I just never sold it and it has sat in my Roth IRA rotting for like 20 years now. Then 10X in a year.

The VIAV part of that spin off is up 162% in 20ish years. I guess an annualized 8% return isn't terrible but for sure under performing the rest of my portfolio over that time frame.

 

[Treeshark]

S&P nearing -6% YTD.​

Where’s the Bottom?

 

[homers]

I heard this morning, with CNBC in the background, that our national debt stands at $39 trillion. It increased by $1 trillion is just the last five months. I guess that would be ~$200 billion/month, ~$46 billion/week, ~$6.6billion/day. The per capita share of debt is ~$113,000.

While I am left of center generally, the fiscal recklessness of our government/ society has bothered me my entire adult life.

The debt has increased by $2.8 trillion dollars since Trump took office. That's about 7% of all of the debt the nation has incurred. The big beautiful bill will accelerate the growth of the debt, going forward.

Where this leads us, idk, but it won't be a good day, if we ever have trouble convincing people and governments to loan the US money.

We've whistled past the graveyard for a good long time. My best guess is that is the plan, if there is one.

the debt is the main thing that concerns me most. The US is on the fast track to financial collapse. Out of control spending problem for the past 20 years. The exponential growth of the debt is unbelievable.

The growth of annual spend over the past years is shocking. And, any attempt to actually address the spend - look at what happened to Musk even when DOGE found outright fraud.

 

[406dn]

the debt is the main thing that concerns me most. The US is on the fast track to financial collapse. Out of control spending problem for the past 20 years. The exponential growth of the debt is unbelievable.

The growth of annual spend over the past years is shocking. And, any attempt to actually address the spend - look at what happened to Musk even when DOGE found outright fraud.

imo, it is a combination of tax cuts and spending. Beginning with Reagan, and you could argue JFK, marginal tax rates have been cut. It has always been sold that they will pay for themselves with increased economic growth. It just never pans out that way.

We actually had a balanced budget for a couple of years, during Clinton's presidency. When GWB came in, he said there was a surplus in revenue, and cut taxes. We have not been close to a balanced budget ever since.

The big beautiful bill is the latest round of tax cuts that will not come close to paying for it, with increased growth.

IDK, when the $hit hits the fan, but at some point, we are no longer creditworthy, to borrow money at very modest interest rates.

 

[homers]

imo, it is a combination of tax cuts and spending. Beginning with Reagan, and you could argue JFK, marginal tax rates have been cut. It has always been sold that they will pay for themselves with increased economic growth. It just never pans out that way.

We actually had a balanced budget for a couple of years, during Clinton's presidency. When GWB came in, he said there was a surplus in revenue, and cut taxes. We have not been close to a balanced budget ever since.

The big beautiful bill is the latest round of tax cuts that will not come close to paying for it, with increased growth.

IDK, when the $hit hits the fan, but at some point, we are no longer creditworthy, to borrow money at very modest interest rates.

Compare revenue and spend charts going back 20-35 years. Add a line to adjust for inflation. Lack of growth in revenue is not the major driver to the exponential growth of the debt.

 

[406dn]

Compare revenue and spend charts going back 20-35 years. Add a line to adjust for inflation. Lack of growth in revenue is not the major driver to the exponential growth of the debt.

That is because no one complains about getting a government benefit. The GOP figured out cutting taxes is popular, cutting spending is not. So, the tax cuts get sold as paying for themselves. Terms like dynamic scoring are trotted out to make the case.

If there was a bill to cut taxes, and reduce spending by an equivalent amount, it would likely not pass.

Since you seem to like charts, compare the expansion of the debt under Democratic and Republican presidents. You could begin with Carter or Reagan, your choice.

 

[BigHornRam]

Are you guys going to buy something, or just bitch about tax policy?

 

[homers]

 

[Treeshark]

Are you guys going to buy something, or just bitch about tax policy?

Bought a nice chunk of SCHB today. DCA’ng on the way down perhaps, but I ain’t no sissy.

 

[Wildabeest]

I’ve had some cash on the sidelines and have decided to buy another rental property. I like the idea of investments that both produce cash flow and capital appreciation. Call me crazy .

 

[TheGrayRider]

The age old question, “Cash is king or cash is trash?”

Watching from the sidelines currently…still a little salty for me.

Good luck and happy hunting to all, TheGrayRider a/k/a Tom.

 

[SAJ-99]

View attachment 404350

The spending line in this chart isn't exactly spending, it was stimulus. 2008, 2020. It all went to the Fed's balance sheet. You can neither tax or cut your way prosperity at this point. The only solution now is to inflate our way out of it.

 

[Big Sky Guy]

The spending line in this chart isn't exactly spending, it was stimulus. 2008, 2020. It all went to the Fed's balance sheet. You can neither tax or cut your way prosperity at this point. The only solution now is to inflate our way out of it.

Revaluing gold to ~$20k/ounce, which is inflation by government declaration? Andrei Jikh (sp?) did a video on it recently and sort of seemed like a viable possibility because apparently this has been done in the past. I’ve heard similar possibilities with using crypto somehow.

It’s ironic to me the debt is something most conservatives have been shaking their fist at the sky since at least Ron Paul 2012. The left has rarely made a peep about this, I distinctly remember the ObamaCare and TEA party movement response but now that Trump is spending it’s suddenly an issue the left is concerned with?

Democrat from Colorado was on Face the Nation this morning and if I would have closed my eyes and just listened to what he was saying it sounded word for word sometime Rand Paul would say as he criticizing the DOD and its spending and failure to pass a single budget. Similarly Republicans (MAGA specifically) are mum about spending sans Massie and Rand Paul who are now somehow enemies of Trump .

Maybe if we all agree the debt is an issue something will finally be done? My gut says this is just the left trying to pander to fiscal conservatives.

Even revaluing gold I don’t think this is a soft landing any way it gets solved.

I have a difficult time with this because I’ve thought we were nearing financial collapse for at least the past decade. Maybe I was way ahead of my time or maybe we get to $100 or $200T in debt before I die and nothing changes. I don’t know at this point. I think you’ve discussed on here how/why the National Debt isn’t the same as personal debt and that also sort of made sense to me but it does seem at some point it will matter?

 

[SAJ-99]

It’s ironic to me the debt is something most conservatives have been shaking their fist at the sky since at least Ron Paul 2012. The left has rarely made a peep about this, I distinctly remember the ObamaCare and TEA party movement response but now that Trump is spending it’s suddenly an issue the left is concerned with?

Same as usual. Debt and the amount of it is not a left/right issue. We all agree the path is not sustainable, but no one wants to tell Americans the truth, which is we have to pay for it. It becomes one when the election rolls around. My Rep was all about attacking "reckless Dem spending" and "fiscal balance" and blah, blah, blah. Then he voted for OBBB tax cuts and every other spending increase which added a couple of Trillion $ because the truth is no American is going to volunteer to foot the bill. We will sure argue about who's not paying enough or taking too much, but think everyone should pay more? NEVER. All DOGE did was prove we have a revenue problem and the OBBB made it worse. It won't matter until it does. When that will be is anyones guess.

Revaluing gold to ~$20k/ounce, which is inflation by government declaration?

I have no idea what this means. Gold is priced by the market daily, not by government declaration. Gold has lost 15% since the war began while the market worries about inflation and pushes interest rates up. Predicting that relationship is impossible. Hold a little if it makes you sleep better.