Anybody Buying Yet? Where’s the Bottom?

[brymoore]

But the market is underpricing oil...it will take months to ramp up again, and no past event can be compared due to the new threat of cheap/harder to stop drones.

What needs to change IMO is Iran's regime...with the new leader there said to be even more of a hard liner than his father that seems unlikely.

It is good to finally see the administration appear to recognize the impact on the economy of what they started.

Edit....and true to form, after Trump said yesterday the war is pretty much over, Hegseth just said this morning thst today will see the most intense day of strikes since the war began.

Iran's strategic oil island thrust into the spotlight as Middle East conflict escalates

Kharg Island serves as the centerpiece for Iran's oil industry, accounting for roughly 90% of the country’s crude exports.

www.cnbc.com

I learned about Iran’s Kharg island yesterday in one of my economic reports. Very interesting, Roughly 90% of Iran’s oil is exported through the island. The island has purposefully never touched by all activities against Iran for over 50 years to keep the oil flow available.

A cease fire should restart the oil flow once a tanker arrives at the island.

 

[406dn]

But the market is underpricing oil...it will take months to ramp up again, and no past event can be compared due to the new threat of cheap/harder to stop drones.

In a nut shell, that's what makes a free market. At any given time, a price is the balance were a buyer, finds a seller, or vice versa.

I'm willing to believe that presently, that's the price of oil. As recent events prove, the price can be very volatile, if there is any supply disruption.

 

[BigHornRam]

But the market is underpricing oil...it will take months to ramp up again, and no past event can be compared due to the new threat of cheap/harder to stop drones.

What needs to change IMO is Iran's regime...with the new leader there said to be even more of a hard liner than his father that seems unlikely.

It is good to finally see the administration appear to recognize the impact on the economy of what they started.

Edit....and true to form, after Trump said yesterday the war is pretty much over, Hegseth just said this morning thst today will see the most intense day of strikes since the war began.

WTI is overpriced in my opinion.

 

[SAJ-99]

Iran's strategic oil island thrust into the spotlight as Middle East conflict escalates

Kharg Island serves as the centerpiece for Iran's oil industry, accounting for roughly 90% of the country’s crude exports.

www.cnbc.com

I learned about Iran’s Kharg island yesterday in one of my economic reports. Very interesting, Roughly 90% of Iran’s oil is exported through the island. The island has purposefully never touched by all activities against Iran for over 50 years to keep the oil flow available.

A cease fire should restart the oil flow once a tanker arrives at the island.

The current map shows 3 Chinese vessels passing through the Strait who's signal pinged in the last 10min. LOL.

 

[Bonasababy]

Patrick Dehaan, head of petroleum analysis for GasBuddy...on TV now saying that even promises of military protection for ships hasn't changed the risk calculus for oil shipping companies.

 

[SAJ-99]

Patrick Dehaan, head of petroleum analysis for GasBuddy...on TV now saying that even promises of military protection for ships hasn't changed the risk calculus for oil shipping companies.

News is mines going in now.

 

[SAJ-99]

Lining up.

 

[Bonasababy]

News is mines going in now.

From CBS

The American officials said Iran is using smaller crafts that can carry two to three mines each to lay them into the strait. While Iran's mine stock isn't publicly known, estimates over the years have ranged from roughly 2,000 to 6,000 naval mines largely produced by Iran, China or Russia.

President Trump posted on Truth Social Tuesday afternoon, "If Iran has put out any mines in the Hormuz Strait, and we have no reports of them doing so, we want them removed, IMMEDIATELY!"
Thirteen minutes later, Mr. Trump posted, "I am pleased to report that within the last few hours, we have hit, and completely destroyed, 10 inactive mine laying boats and/or ships, with more to follow!"

Do the math.....

 

[BigHornRam]

From CBS

The American officials said Iran is using smaller crafts that can carry two to three mines each to lay them into the strait. While Iran's mine stock isn't publicly known, estimates over the years have ranged from roughly 2,000 to 6,000 naval mines largely produced by Iran, China or Russia.

President Trump posted on Truth Social Tuesday afternoon, "If Iran has put out any mines in the Hormuz Strait, and we have no reports of them doing so, we want them removed, IMMEDIATELY!"
Thirteen minutes later, Mr. Trump posted, "I am pleased to report that within the last few hours, we have hit, and completely destroyed, 10 inactive mine laying boats and/or ships, with more to follow!"

Do the math.....

A Chinese tanker getting blown up by a Chinese mine. That would be karma.

 

[SAJ-99]

A Chinese tanker getting blown up by a Chinese mine. That would be karma.

Irony is a US military ship escorting a Chinese tanker.

 

[Bonasababy]

60 minutes reporting now that in spite of the war Iran has actually greatly increased shipments of oil....

To China.

Oil sanctions lifted....

On Russia.

Former W official saying these...and oil reserves releases, and potential military escorts...are all a sideshow. All Iran has to do is show they can occasionally strike a ship to keep shippers from renewing operations through the straight.

 

[SAJ-99]

60 minutes reporting now that in spite of the war Iran has actually greatly increased shipments of oil....

To China.

Oil sanctions lifted....

On Russia.

Former W official saying these...and oil reserves releases, and potential military escorts...are all a sideshow. All Iran has to do is show they can occasionally strike a ship to keep shippers from renewing operations through the straight.

"Closed" has always been a little bit of a misnomer. Tankers have been going through for the last week, mostly bound for China and India. Other tankers are filling at Jask. The choice is to let the oil flow or deal with prices at $120-$140. Hard to see a way out of this in the short term.

 

[Treeshark]

It’s red today, crew… allll red.

 

[BigHornRam]

It’s red today, crew… allll red.

Not for me. Thinking about selling in the next day or two.

 

[npaden]

My DINO has really been propping me up the last couple weeks. Up almost 20%.

Still down overall but without it things would look a lot uglier.

The dividend yield on it has been around 4% but with the recent run up it's yield is down a bit. I guess I can live with that.

 

[SAJ-99]

Rough morning. Demand destruction starting to get priced in to materials. All metals getting slapped around. Government bond yields going higher - not acting as safe haven. Even energy stocks not getting as big of boost as you would think. BHR must be selling.

 

[BigHornRam]

Rough morning. Demand destruction starting to get priced in to materials. All metals getting slapped around. Government bond yields going higher - not acting as safe haven. Even energy stocks not getting as big of boost as you would think. BHR must be selling.

Still holding. +4% this morning.

 

[BigHornRam]

+6% now. Speculators are speculating.

 

[SAJ-99]

Whether we're expensive or not is just your opinion. Historically yes but maybe not in our current condition. We may be priced appropriately right now. You've been saying we're expensive for nearly 6 years on this thread. Plenty of commentators have been saying the same the last 10-15 years.

As the S&P has become more and more tech heavy, I would fully expect the average PE to rise. Tech stocks have just about always had higher growth rates, higher profitability and higher PEs.

Looking to add a little here. Cherry picking through exposures. Just like to keep you informed so you know I'm not always thinking one way or another. Reasoning - Down over 5%, so "on sale-ish", March is often a seasonal bottom, Tax selling season will end, option expiration tomorrow will switch hedging flows (kind of depends on how investors hedge going for forward, so this is fluid). Still remains mostly about a stretch of water in the Middle East, but can't bet much on that. I'm certainly going to have to hold my nose to buy some of the stuff. Housing stocks, Financials, healthcare, tech, pretty much everything but Energy is oversold, yet still only down modestly. Crazy in a lot of ways.