Anybody Buying Yet? Where’s the Bottom?

[brymoore]

But the market is underpricing oil...it will take months to ramp up again, and no past event can be compared due to the new threat of cheap/harder to stop drones.

What needs to change IMO is Iran's regime...with the new leader there said to be even more of a hard liner than his father that seems unlikely.

It is good to finally see the administration appear to recognize the impact on the economy of what they started.

Edit....and true to form, after Trump said yesterday the war is pretty much over, Hegseth just said this morning thst today will see the most intense day of strikes since the war began.

Iran's strategic oil island thrust into the spotlight as Middle East conflict escalates

Kharg Island serves as the centerpiece for Iran's oil industry, accounting for roughly 90% of the country’s crude exports.

www.cnbc.com

I learned about Iran’s Kharg island yesterday in one of my economic reports. Very interesting, Roughly 90% of Iran’s oil is exported through the island. The island has purposefully never touched by all activities against Iran for over 50 years to keep the oil flow available.

A cease fire should restart the oil flow once a tanker arrives at the island.

 

[406dn]

But the market is underpricing oil...it will take months to ramp up again, and no past event can be compared due to the new threat of cheap/harder to stop drones.

In a nut shell, that's what makes a free market. At any given time, a price is the balance were a buyer, finds a seller, or vice versa.

I'm willing to believe that presently, that's the price of oil. As recent events prove, the price can be very volatile, if there is any supply disruption.

 

[BigHornRam]

But the market is underpricing oil...it will take months to ramp up again, and no past event can be compared due to the new threat of cheap/harder to stop drones.

What needs to change IMO is Iran's regime...with the new leader there said to be even more of a hard liner than his father that seems unlikely.

It is good to finally see the administration appear to recognize the impact on the economy of what they started.

Edit....and true to form, after Trump said yesterday the war is pretty much over, Hegseth just said this morning thst today will see the most intense day of strikes since the war began.

WTI is overpriced in my opinion.

 

[SAJ-99]

Iran's strategic oil island thrust into the spotlight as Middle East conflict escalates

Kharg Island serves as the centerpiece for Iran's oil industry, accounting for roughly 90% of the country’s crude exports.

www.cnbc.com

I learned about Iran’s Kharg island yesterday in one of my economic reports. Very interesting, Roughly 90% of Iran’s oil is exported through the island. The island has purposefully never touched by all activities against Iran for over 50 years to keep the oil flow available.

A cease fire should restart the oil flow once a tanker arrives at the island.

The current map shows 3 Chinese vessels passing through the Strait who's signal pinged in the last 10min. LOL.

 

[Bonasababy]

Patrick Dehaan, head of petroleum analysis for GasBuddy...on TV now saying that even promises of military protection for ships hasn't changed the risk calculus for oil shipping companies.

 

[SAJ-99]

Patrick Dehaan, head of petroleum analysis for GasBuddy...on TV now saying that even promises of military protection for ships hasn't changed the risk calculus for oil shipping companies.

News is mines going in now.

 

[SAJ-99]

Lining up.

 

[Bonasababy]

News is mines going in now.

From CBS

The American officials said Iran is using smaller crafts that can carry two to three mines each to lay them into the strait. While Iran's mine stock isn't publicly known, estimates over the years have ranged from roughly 2,000 to 6,000 naval mines largely produced by Iran, China or Russia.

President Trump posted on Truth Social Tuesday afternoon, "If Iran has put out any mines in the Hormuz Strait, and we have no reports of them doing so, we want them removed, IMMEDIATELY!"
Thirteen minutes later, Mr. Trump posted, "I am pleased to report that within the last few hours, we have hit, and completely destroyed, 10 inactive mine laying boats and/or ships, with more to follow!"

Do the math.....

 

[BigHornRam]

From CBS

The American officials said Iran is using smaller crafts that can carry two to three mines each to lay them into the strait. While Iran's mine stock isn't publicly known, estimates over the years have ranged from roughly 2,000 to 6,000 naval mines largely produced by Iran, China or Russia.

President Trump posted on Truth Social Tuesday afternoon, "If Iran has put out any mines in the Hormuz Strait, and we have no reports of them doing so, we want them removed, IMMEDIATELY!"
Thirteen minutes later, Mr. Trump posted, "I am pleased to report that within the last few hours, we have hit, and completely destroyed, 10 inactive mine laying boats and/or ships, with more to follow!"

Do the math.....

A Chinese tanker getting blown up by a Chinese mine. That would be karma.

 

[SAJ-99]

A Chinese tanker getting blown up by a Chinese mine. That would be karma.

Irony is a US military ship escorting a Chinese tanker.

 

[Bonasababy]

60 minutes reporting now that in spite of the war Iran has actually greatly increased shipments of oil....

To China.

Oil sanctions lifted....

On Russia.

Former W official saying these...and oil reserves releases, and potential military escorts...are all a sideshow. All Iran has to do is show they can occasionally strike a ship to keep shippers from renewing operations through the straight.

 

[SAJ-99]

60 minutes reporting now that in spite of the war Iran has actually greatly increased shipments of oil....

To China.

Oil sanctions lifted....

On Russia.

Former W official saying these...and oil reserves releases, and potential military escorts...are all a sideshow. All Iran has to do is show they can occasionally strike a ship to keep shippers from renewing operations through the straight.

"Closed" has always been a little bit of a misnomer. Tankers have been going through for the last week, mostly bound for China and India. Other tankers are filling at Jask. The choice is to let the oil flow or deal with prices at $120-$140. Hard to see a way out of this in the short term.