Anybody Buying Yet? Where’s the Bottom?

[Bonasababy]

Do you think the action in the middle east will slow the economy due to uncertainty, or cause it to jump from military spending?

I've seen mixed reports. Not a fan of assuming past wars can be compared to today's situation. Way too simplistic and doesnt account for different underlying conditions.

For one example, Paul Krugman has pointed to the asset price bubble and the private market bubble, and wondered if the war might be the tipping point to burst them.

 

[hunter3270]

That graph is interesting. I'm sure it's no different than any other time. The best time to invest is when you have the funds to do it

 

[SAJ-99]

Do you think the action in the middle east will slow the economy due to uncertainty, or cause it to jump from military spending?

Slow it, but it is already slow from tariff uncertainty so you won’t notice a difference. Americans will enjoy their bubble. The problem for the stock market is it is expensive.

 

[Treeshark]

The problem for the stock market is it is expensive.

Yep. A correction is necessary.

 

[SAJ-99]

Yep. A correction is necessary.

Inflation fears and interest rate spikes...not good. I will be expecting an announcement on a release from the SPR soon. Admin doesn't want Americans to feel any pain.

 

[Treeshark]

I agree, and this may compel Jerry Powell to make a move at the next Fed meeting. I don’t think he wants to see a tank at the end of his term either.

 

[SAJ-99]

I agree, and this may compel Jerry Powell to make a move at the next Fed meeting. I don’t think he wants to see a tank at the end of his term either.

You can bet that. Probably some decent money to be made when odds stand at 97%. Fed meets in two weeks. Market says it is not happening and going strong against the idea. In fact, even the June meeting, which would be the Warsh's first is saying 65% No Cut.

JPoww is most likely to tell them they are in the "Find Out" stage and best of luck.

 

[brymoore]

I’m patiently waiting for my unconstitutional tariff refund check.

 

[Flatrock]

The problem for the stock market is it is expensive.

Perhaps. You've also been saying that for the last several thousand points on the S&P.

 

[SAJ-99]

Perhaps. You've also been saying that for the last several thousand points on the S&P.

And enjoying those several thousand points like everyone else. Both can be true. Valuation is a terrible timing trade tool, but it doesn't make not true.

 

[BigHornRam]

Perhaps. You've also been saying that for the last several thousand points on the S&P.

Should have sold your bitcoin and rolled it into XOM a couple months ago when it was on sale and paying a good dividend.

 

[406dn]

I’m patiently waiting for my unconstitutional tariff refund check.

I think it will be the day after Godot makes an appearance.

 

[406dn]

Should have sold your bitcoin and rolled it into XOM a couple months ago when it was on sale and paying a good dividend.

View attachment 403154

I have to admit that the last several months have been kind to this retiree of said company.

 

[Treeshark]

I think it will be the day after Godot makes an appearance.

She’s hot.

 

[BigHornRam]

I have to admit that the last several months have been kind to this retiree of said company.

P/E is kind of rich. Going to sell some going forward ?

 

[406dn]

P/E is kind of rich. Going to sell some going forward ?

I've ridden the stock for a long time. Sometimes the stock price is down, and the yield is high. Sometimes the stock price climbs, and the yield becomes lower. Overall, I have no complaints.

 

[Flatrock]

And enjoying those several thousand points like everyone else. Both can be true. Valuation is a terrible timing trade tool, but it doesn't make not true.

100% agree. Which is why I've never understood why you're frequently talking about valuation.

 

[BigHornRam]

I've ridden the stock for a long time. Sometimes the stock price is down, and the yield is high. Sometimes the stock price climbs, and the yield becomes lower. Overall, I have no complaints.

Oil is not going to stay high for long. Ride the wave, sell some, and then buy back when the stock price settles back to reality.

 

[Bonasababy]

https://www.reuters.com/business/wall-st-futures-fall-middle-east-conflict-stokes-inflation-worries-2026-03-03/

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/bond-markets-gripped-by-oil-driven-inflation-fear-traders-slash-bets-rate-cuts-2026-03-03/

 

[SAJ-99]

100% agree. Which is why I've never understood why you're frequently talking about valuation.

Fair point. Because I have lived through numerous instances in my career of professionals telling me it doesn't matter...until it ultimately does. We are in another one of those times and I keep telling people trying to justify it as the new normal (which I will agree with to some extent) that "it will matter at some point". 30yr avg PE for S&P is 17. We are at 22. That is a long way from cheap. Expensive stocks have a lot built in regarding expectations. It only takes a small piece of news to send them falling.

For the person that is just waiting for 20yrs to collect in retirement none of that matters if they are diversified and patient. For me that is an opportunity to collect a few basis points on over-expectations and maybe collect a few more on the overreaction. For example, I was very long after the Liberation day selloff fiasco last year. It was an overreaction. Eventually I collected my money and moved back to my target. BHR is asking a good question on XOM. It the company's future worth paying 23x yesterday's earnings? Oil is only $76, so at some point it is a bet on price of oil and the impact on demand. Those energy companies have stopped being cheap. Now the wager is different.