Anybody Buying Yet? Where’s the Bottom?

[Shangobango]

Took off GLD position. Holding SLV. Spike in implied vol made the options worth more and GLD now over bought. I don't think that Imp vol will remain high. First win in gold for me in a long time. SLV price has a longer runway.

Bought RF @15.03. Still hawking some of the others.

 

[Shangobango]

Now I have added some C and WFH.

 

[howl]

MMM crossed 52 week low. I'm not feeling good about this. Not buying anything and keeping my money ready for TIPS auction next week.

 

[Sytes]

Market Summary > Dragonfly Energy Holdings Corp
3.18 USD−0.37 (10.42%)today
Closed: Mar 14, 5:25 PM EDT • Disclaimer
After hours 3.21 +0.030 (0.94%)

Haha! That's a chit sandwich served on a wooden plank.

 

[SAJ-99]

Market Summary > Dragonfly Energy Holdings Corp
3.18 USD−0.37 (10.42%)today
Closed: Mar 14, 5:25 PM EDT • Disclaimer
After hours 3.21 +0.030 (0.94%)

Haha! That's a chit sandwich served on a wooden plank.

Thanks BHR! I'm changing the Google rating on your newsletter!

 

[Sytes]

Interesting collective mega banking action...

"The banking space sees another rescue deal in just a matter of days, with the nation's biggest banks agreeing to deposit around $30 billion with troubled First Republic Bank (FRC). The big banks -including JPMorgan (JPM), Bank of America (BAC), Citi (C) and Wells Fargo (WFC) - will contribute $5 billion of deposits each. Goldman Sachs (GS) and Morgan Stanley (MS) will provide $2.5 billion each. PNC Financial (PNC), BNY Mellon (BK), Truist (TFC), U.S. Bancorp (USB) and State Street (STT) will each contribute $1 billion.

Billionaire investor Bill Ackman denounced the rescue deal, saying, "Spreading the risk of financial contagion to achieve a false sense of confidence in FRB is bad policy."

Thoughts? Entry Opportunity, Yea/Nay?

Wall Street Week Ahead

Track this week’s market catalysts: Big Tech earnings, Fed rate decision, and core PCE inflation data—plus IPOs and key reports.

seekingalpha.com

 

[X13]

Interesting collective mega banking action...

"The banking space sees another rescue deal in just a matter of days, with the nation's biggest banks agreeing to deposit around $30 billion with troubled First Republic Bank (FRC). The big banks -including JPMorgan (JPM), Bank of America (BAC), Citi (C) and Wells Fargo (WFC) - will contribute $5 billion of deposits each. Goldman Sachs (GS) and Morgan Stanley (MS) will provide $2.5 billion each. PNC Financial (PNC), BNY Mellon (BK), Truist (TFC), U.S. Bancorp (USB) and State Street (STT) will each contribute $1 billion.

Billionaire investor Bill Ackman denounced the rescue deal, saying, "Spreading the risk of financial contagion to achieve a false sense of confidence in FRB is bad policy."

Thoughts? Entry Opportunity, Yea/Nay?

Wall Street Week Ahead

Track this week’s market catalysts: Big Tech earnings, Fed rate decision, and core PCE inflation data—plus IPOs and key reports.

seekingalpha.com

I asked a financial advisor friend of mine about his thoughts on today's news. His opinion is that it's either going to get run-on and go to zero or shoot back up to 80 in pretty short order. It wouldn't make any sense to stay at 30-35.

 

[Red-Team 98]

Added to positions of XLE !
Expect 3 more months of Turmoil.
Dollar cost average the next 3 months into market

 

[SAJ-99]

Interesting collective mega banking action...

"The banking space sees another rescue deal in just a matter of days, with the nation's biggest banks agreeing to deposit around $30 billion with troubled First Republic Bank (FRC). The big banks -including JPMorgan (JPM), Bank of America (BAC), Citi (C) and Wells Fargo (WFC) - will contribute $5 billion of deposits each. Goldman Sachs (GS) and Morgan Stanley (MS) will provide $2.5 billion each. PNC Financial (PNC), BNY Mellon (BK), Truist (TFC), U.S. Bancorp (USB) and State Street (STT) will each contribute $1 billion.

Billionaire investor Bill Ackman denounced the rescue deal, saying, "Spreading the risk of financial contagion to achieve a false sense of confidence in FRB is bad policy."

Thoughts? Entry Opportunity, Yea/Nay?

Wall Street Week Ahead

Track this week’s market catalysts: Big Tech earnings, Fed rate decision, and core PCE inflation data—plus IPOs and key reports.

seekingalpha.com

Bought some bank etfs this week. Big banks win. FRC is unknowable mess, so I avoid. Small banks will lose. Even some Regionals will lose deposits. Investors are waking up to the losses that were hidden in the HTM assets and revaluing.

I just like seeing all the hot-takes from politicians and influencers (for lack of a better term). Yellen was in front of Congress trying to explain what happened while the member kept harping on depositor losses at small banks.

There are over 4,300 Banks in the FDIC insurance program with 70,000 total branches. The number has come down significantly over the last decade as money goes more digital. There were almost 7,000 in 2009. I’m all for competition, but running a bank when rates are low seems like trying to pick up nickels on the highway.

 

[Sytes]

Reflecting on my own banking activity, it's basically a distribution hub. They use my $ and in return, I receive... Convenience.
Side note/query: I've found Credit Unions seem much more personalized from car to home loans. We have a few cards to build air miles/hotel perks and pay everything monthly via Chase, AMEX, CITI.

Why use the Wells Fargo's, etc? Seems they're in hot water and pissed customer base more often than not. Is there an advantage banks hold over Credit Unions?

It wraps into your comment and the bank ETF world. Why / how are they a long term value for individual interest? Is it the National/International markets our bank $ funnels around that maintains their necessity?

 

[SAJ-99]

Is there an advantage banks hold over Credit Unions?

Good question. Credit unions tend to hold their loans rather than resell them. That tends to make them more concentrated to the regional economic environment. But for the customer, they are the same and prefer the same function. A larger bank will have more products that might make it appealing to businesses. Years ago banks stopped charging monthly fees for accounts and instead charge for ATM fees, overdraft fees, etc. (Which they get beat up in Congress for charging too). I'm not sure if Credit Unions do the same?

The whole network is set up on a system from the 1970's. Anyone who has ever sent a wire transfer has experience it first hand.

 

[SAJ-99]

Why / how are they a long term value for individual interest? Is it the National/International markets our bank $ funnels around that maintains their necessity?

Most of the rest of the developed world has a banking system that is highly controlled by government. Socialized, utility-like, whatever we want to call it. The US still hangs on to this notion of capitalism in the banking system. Next week? who knows.

 

[Red-Team 98]

Bought some bank etfs this week. Big banks win. FRC is unknowable mess, so I avoid. Small banks will lose. Even some Regionals will lose deposits. Investors are waking up to the losses that were hidden in the HTM assets and revaluing.

I just like seeing all the hot-takes from politicians and influencers (for lack of a better term). Yellen was in front of Congress trying to explain what happened while the member kept harping on depositor losses at small banks.

There are over 4,300 Banks in the FDIC insurance program with 70,000 total branches. The number has come down significantly over the last decade as money goes more digital. There were almost 7,000 in 2009. I’m all for competition, but running a bank when rates are low seems like trying to pick up nickels on the highway.

They are not fooling anyone, it’s a government bailout and the added cost by the banks will be passed down to consumers and customers. They think we are fools.
Who would put their money into one of these banks … certainly not me !

Remember Yellen words “ It’s Transitory “

 

[Sytes]

They are not fooling anyone, it’s a government bailout and the added cost by the banks will be passed down to consumers and customers. They think we are fools.
Who would put their money into one of these banks … certainly not me !

"The banking space sees another rescue deal in just a matter of days, with the nation's biggest banks agreeing to deposit around $30 billion with troubled First Republic Bank (FRC). The big banks -including JPMorgan (JPM), Bank of America (BAC), Citi (C) and Wells Fargo (WFC) - will contribute $5 billion of deposits each. Goldman Sachs (GS) and Morgan Stanley (MS) will provide $2.5 billion each. PNC Financial (PNC), BNY Mellon (BK), Truist (TFC), U.S. Bancorp (USB) and State Street (STT) will each contribute $1 billion.

The Big Boy/Girl large bank community are placing deposits to sit in FRC. This is not a Government bailout. Still $ JPM, Citi, etc own though allowing FRC to ride on their $. It's to the advantage of those banks to keep FRC in play vs sink as that directly impacts their own security / $.

"In a statement, the banks said their action “reflects their confidence in First Republic and in banks of all sizes,” adding that “regional, midsize and small banks are critical to the health and functioning of our financial system.”

 

[noharleyyet]

They are not fooling anyone, it’s a government bailout and the added cost by the banks will be passed down to consumers and customers. They think we are fools.
Who would put their money into one of these banks … certainly not me !

Remember Yellen words “ It’s Transitory “

Does every bank asterisk the max amount now. *applies to legacy poor performance executive led only

 

[howl]

Ten year TIPS close next week. Kinda wanted to wait n see about five year next month but I'd rather devote the brain space to turkey and fish.

I made my order within Roth IRA. I'll check back in August, maybe.

 

[Sytes]

Remember Yellen words “ It’s Transitory “

Maybe I missed your intended point. "Transitory" (Yellen's comment she took back about inflation), though using her word, you're speaking of the former government bailouts (2008) to the banking institution - thus "transitory" routing to FRC?

The most recent, if I recall correctly, Biden's ARPA was Small business and individuals - or did that include big (massive companies) as well?

 

[SAJ-99]

the added cost by the banks will be passed down to consumers and customers.

Those same customers got the benefit from low rates, narrow spreads, and government checks. So . In the end, the working American pays for everything. Always has, always will. This isn't our first "banking crisis" and perspective is helped by reading up on history.

 

[noharleyyet]

Those same customers got the benefit from low rates, narrow spreads, and government checks. So . In the end, the working American pays for everything. Always has, always will. This isn't our first "banking crisis" and perspective is helped by reading up on history.

Yes, so bail out is not inaccurate, correct?

 

[SAJ-99]

Ten year TIPS close next week. Kinda wanted to wait n see about five year next month but I'd rather devote the brain space to turkey and fish.

I made my order within Roth IRA. I'll check back in August, maybe.

Last auction was 1.2%. This one is might be below 1%.

Yes, so bail out is not inaccurate, correct?

I think I said in a previous post on the other thread that by my definition, nothing yet has been a bailout, but I don't think there is an official definition. Didn't save shareholders, didn't save debt holders, only saved deposits. If you want to use the word "bailout" when talking about depositors, that is your call. I just think the word has a negative connotation to it with the general public. So far I see nothing that bothers me. Just action to try to keep the system functioning- which is necessary. But doesn't mean I can't change my mind next week.