Anybody Buying Yet? Where’s the Bottom?

[RemingtonRules]

don’t think, just buy. In the long term calc, dollar cost averaging over these first few months isn’t going to matter. Only do it if makes you feel better.

How did that work out? Don't worry I know the answer.

 

[SAJ-99]

How did that work out? Don't worry I know the answer.

Not great for the quarter. But I assume they were not investing for 3 months. If you can pick tops or bottoms when they happen, let me know and we will make a lot of money. You can also get a financial advisor to give that same advice and pay them to do it.

 

[stk]

How did that work out? Don't worry I know the answer.

I hardly think 3 months qualifies as long term. Ask him in twenty years and I suspect SAJ-99 will have been right.

 

[TOGIE]

is it time to start asking the original question again?

i threw a lot of money in the market at near bottom of the ukraine/invasion dip. we're getting close to those bottoms again. which means i'm not infusing more huge chunks of cash unless we go a fair bit lower than that.

mentally preparing. my gut says the ball is beginning to roll downhill.

 

[npaden]

I bought $40K of I-Series Bonds in the last week.... First time in my life I've purchased bonds. 8+% guaranteed return over then next 12 months seemed like a slam dunk though with all the uncertainty around. Debating buying another $20K but that locks me in for about 19 months.

Hoping to pull the trigger on a land purchase this week that will eat up all the rest of my liquidity and then some.

Not pulling anything out of equity in my 401k though. Not selling any of my individual stock holdings with large unrealized gains. I guess I'm rating the market overall as a Hold right now.

 

[schmalts]

I bought $40K of I-Series Bonds in the last week.... First time in my life I've purchased bonds. 8+% guaranteed return over then next 12 months seemed like a slam dunk though with all the uncertainty around. Debating buying another $20K but that locks me in for about 19 months.

Hoping to pull the trigger on a land purchase this week that will eat up all the rest of my liquidity and then some.

Not pulling anything out of equity in my 401k though. Not selling any of my individual stock holdings with large unrealized gains. I guess I'm rating the market overall as a Hold right now.

How did you get 40k of I bonds? Fill me in.

 

[npaden]

I posted on that thread. Essentially you can buy them for your spouse (and vice versa) you just can't deliver them to them until you hit a year where they haven't bought their limit yet. They earn interest and the holding period starts then just aren't technically anyone's yet so they don't count against the $10,000 annual purchase limit.

So I bought $10,000 for me, and bought $10,000 as a gift for my wife that I left in my "gift box" or something like that. Then my wife bought $10,000 and bought $10,000 as a gift for me that she left in her gift box.

If I buy another $10,000 gift for each of us we wouldn't be able to transfer and withdraw it until January of 2024. There is a youtube video I watched that does a much better job explaining it.

 

[LopeHunter]

Not great for the quarter. But I assume they were not investing for 3 months. If you can pick tops or bottoms when they happen, let me know and we will make a lot of money. You can also get a financial advisor to give that same advice and pay them to do it.

I am investing for the future and for legacy as the bulk will pass on after I am dead so even a decade such as 2000-2009 where my holdings of stock was about flat though all those shares I bought and dividends reinvested worked out over those 120 months. Time in the market is arguable more important that timing the market. I have land and stocks and bonds and houses. The stocks and bonds do not require me to fix a water heater in the middle of the night or worry about a hail storm knocking down my corn crop. My approach may only work for me but I sleep great and have enough.

 

[SAJ-99]

is it time to start asking the original question again?

i threw a lot of money in the market at near bottom of the ukraine/invasion dip. we're getting close to those bottoms again. which means i'm not infusing more huge chunks of cash unless we go a fair bit lower than that.

mentally preparing. my gut says the ball is beginning to roll downhill.

Looking better everyday. Valuations more reasonable. We will have to see how earnings this week shake out. Today is a mess but down 12% YTD seems like a good place to take a small bite, at least for me.

 

[TOGIE]

Looking better everyday. Valuations more reasonable. We will have to see how earnings this week shake out. Today is a mess but down 12% YTD seems like a good place to take a small bite, at least for me.

i took the majority of my down nearly 12% bites in early march. now i'm getting greedy. i want down 20% chomps

 

[shannerdrake]

To quote the original question:
"Anybody buy yet? Where's the bottom?"

I am always buying. If you look at investments (stocks, real estate, etc.) they go up and down, but they are trending up.

The bottom? Not sure, but my guess is that it was 100 years ago. Today's "bottom" is still higher than the bottom fifty years ago.

My only investment regrets always revolve around not buying more yesterday.

 

[huntandfly]

To quote the original question:
"Anybody buy yet? Where's the bottom?"

I am always buying. If you look at investments (stocks, real estate, etc.) they go up and down, but they are trending up.

The bottom? Not sure, but my guess is that it was 100 years ago. Today's "bottom" is still higher than the bottom fifty years ago.

My only investment regrets always revolve around not buying more yesterday.

Unless “yesterday” was December 29th and you saved that cash until today. To each their own, I will agree that trying to time the market is a dangerous game but it’s the danger that makes us feel alive

And also sometimes poorer

 

[shannerdrake]

Unless “yesterday” was December 29th and you saved that cash until today. To each their own, I will agree that trying to time the market is a dangerous game but it’s the danger that makes us feel alive

And also sometimes poorer

S&P 500 4/26/22 = $4,175
S&P 500 12/31/21 = $4,766
S&P 500 12/31/20 = $3,756
S&P 500 12/27/19 = $3,240
S&P 500 12/28/18 = $2,485

All I'm saying is that I wished I would have bought a bunch more during the "peaks" in 2018, 2019, and 2020, which is exactly why I'm buying right now and am always buying. Everyone remembers the great crash in 2008, but if you look back at the high before the crash, S&P 500 was still trading below $1,500. I would have loved to been "buying high" back in 2008. In fact I did and I never stopped buying and the S&P 500 has put a lot of money into my IRAs.

Granted, I am looking at a more long term strategy and this plan doesn't always work in the short term, but if I need my money short term....I'm not putting it in stocks. When I saved for my house, I pumped all the savings I could get my hands on into savings accounts making about .5%. However, two years later when I pulled that out I was grateful to have it all back plus the .5% interest. Now I would have LOVED to have sunk that cash into the S&P 500 back in 2018 and pulled it out in 2020...but I needed liquidity and safety.

I don't play slots, the lottery, roulette, or 21 so I certainly don't try to time the short term market.

 

[rogerthat]

S&P 500 4/26/22 = $4,175
S&P 500 12/31/21 = $4,766
S&P 500 12/31/20 = $3,756
S&P 500 12/27/19 = $3,240
S&P 500 12/28/18 = $2,485

All I'm saying is that I wished I would have bought a bunch more during the "peaks" in 2018, 2019, and 2020, which is exactly why I'm buying right now and am always buying. Everyone remembers the great crash in 2008, but if you look back at the high before the crash, S&P 500 was still trading below $1,500. I would have loved to been "buying high" back in 2008. In fact I did and I never stopped buying and the S&P 500 has put a lot of money into my IRAs.

Granted, I am looking at a more long term strategy and this plan doesn't always work in the short term, but if I need my money short term....I'm not putting it in stocks. When I saved for my house, I pumped all the savings I could get my hands on into savings accounts making about .5%. However, two years later when I pulled that out I was grateful to have it all back plus the .5% interest. Now I would have LOVED to have sunk that cash into the S&P 500 back in 2018 and pulled it out in 2020...but I needed liquidity and safety.

I don't play slots, the lottery, roulette, or 21 so I certainly don't try to time the short term market.

All works out if your not buying Japan in the 80's. This market has a lot of slosh and air in her. It will mean revert someday. Dead money might be the price paid for helicopter cash. My expectations aren't high.

 

[SAJ-99]

It will mean revert someday.

What mean will it revert to?

 

[Flatrock]

Quite a wild start to the year! Feels like the range of outcomes going forward is terribly wide. I feel like a person could very strongly argue either S&P 3,000 or 5,000 for the end of the year. Fighting the Fed is just always a tough fight and that seems to be the big issue. I think a big 2 or 3 day washout with the Vix over 40 would be a good thing right now.

 

[schmalts]

For many of the youngsters who have never dealt with high interest rates, this may be a wake up call why P/E is so important to us old coots. The one thing that kept the stock market going up no matter what the economy or crisis was the low interest rates and very little options to put money to make money. Makes you wonder if the meme stock crowd are pulling out and buying Ibonds and causing part of this tech bubble to burst. I think this is going to be a bear of a year

 

[David658]

For many of the youngsters who have never dealt with high interest rates, this may be a wake up call why P/E is so important to us old coots. The one thing that kept the stock market going up no matter what the economy or crisis was the low interest rates and very little options to put money to make money. Makes you wonder if the meme stock crowd are pulling out and buying Ibonds and causing part of this tech bubble to burst. I think this is going to be a bear of a year

I have moved most of my money to money market funds. At an age where preservation of principal is more important than gains, tho gains would be nice. I am no expert, but based on what I have read, and what I saw in the 70s and 80s, the Fed will sacrifice the market for inflation. I think this market is going to be a bear, and that bear is about to do what bears do in the woods. A very big dump.

Tighten your chinstrap.

 

[rogerthat]

What mean will it revert to?

Long term….Pick any time horizon longer than 5 years….Longer the better. Draw a trend line. The US stock market has returned 6-7% above inflation since inception. We are significantly ahead of that right now. FYI I’m not saying I know when it will return to trend. You can only blow air in a balloon for so long until you need to take a breath. It’s anyones guess at this point if the fed decides to bring inflation to heel or blow the balloon.

 

[SAJ-99]

Long term….Pick any time horizon longer than 5 years….Longer the better. Draw a trend line. The US stock market has returned 6-7% above inflation since inception. We are significantly ahead of that right now. FYI I’m not saying I know when it will return to trend. You can only blow air in a balloon for so long until you need to take a breath. It’s anyones guess at this point if the fed decides to bring inflation to heel or blow the balloon.

Best I can find is this below. I can find a half dozen problems with this concept, but whatever. If you are waiting for the S&P to drop below 2800 you might be disappointed. It could happen, sure, but I guarantee that when it does, you will be completely convinced not to buy it then either.