When I entered UT I had an 80% chance of drawing a rifle elk tag in non-crapper unit at least once in a 20yr period. Due to switching the odd numbered tags to preference(cutting odds for units with 3 tags in half!) and the increased demand, that number is substantially lower, although I haven’t calculated it in a while. If I stick in UT, I will most likely never draw an elk tag.
At the time I entered, I had about a 50% chance of drawing at least one OIL species over a 20yr period. That has also dropped to near zero.
80% chance at one elk tag and 50% chance at one OIL, and I was borderline okay with rolling those dice. NV gave me similar odds, but cost almost 10X as much to apply due to the higher priced license and having to purchase a license every year. On top of the that, due to point squaring, the probability that I would draw one of those tags in the first 10 years instead of the second 10 years was something like 4X higher in UT than NV. I’m also a sucker for any 4x4 mule deer, and as a result I have a stack of 135”-145” skulls. The UT general deer tag was also a big advantage over NV, but if I was looking for big bucks, UT general deer would not have enticed me. TODAY HOWEVER, my odds of drawing a good elk tag in UT in just 20yrs are far lower. My odds of drawing a OIL tag are near zero. The the prices have gone up , although not tooooo much EXCEPT for the general deer tag. The general deer tag price increase was really a bitter pill. I love opportunity, but when UT puts out more late rifle deer tags than there were bucks before the archery, muzzle loader, and early rifle seasons, I really have to wonder why I would pay almost as much as CO to hunt an overcrowded unit full of dinks(I know some big ones come out of general units sometimes), in the last season where only the leftovers remain.
I’m going to hunt a general deer hunt at least once before I bail on UT. If I’m pleasantly surprised, I’ll keep it in the rotation for years that I don’t draw NM and don’t have the points for the hunt I want in CO or AZ. If it stinks, I’m probably out on UT.