Yet Another Reminder

[VikingsGuy]

Another example that paying 1-3% to have folks pick stock winners for you (or trying to pick for yourself) is a losing game. Buying low cost/load broad index funds/ETFs are 99.9% of the time the best investment advice there is. For fifty years every serious study has shown that you can’t beat the market. But like slot machines - if there is enough flash and noise and a few big winners to feed our confirmation bias folks will still keep plowing in good money after bad.

This Strategy Beat the World’s Top Hedge Funds—Don’t Try It

Malkiel’s monkeys can probably outperform Sohn’s gurus.

www.wsj.com

 

[GoGriz]

@VikingsGuy feel like sharing some of your favorite picks for ETFs? I’m always curious what others are picking and how that aligns with where I am parking my money.

 

[TOGIE]

not that anyone is asking me but here are some of my favorite ETFs

VOO
SCHD
VGT
VUG
BND

 

[Gus Chiggins]

I keep it simple and use a dartboard to pick stocks

 

[Treeshark]

paying 1-3% to have folks pick stock winners for you

I agree with your overall point (SCHB for me), but I do see value in certain advisors- more from a tax and allocation strategy than picking individual stocks.

 

[VikingsGuy]

I agree with your overall point (SCHB for me), but I do see value in certain advisors- more from a tax and allocation strategy than picking individual stocks.

I agree that tax advising is often advisable, but that should be billed by the hour like a lawyer, not as a portfolio percentage. Similarly with portfolio mix questions, but even there, there is pretty good data that says 60-70% all US stock index and 30-40% all US bond index will outperform almost any other mix over long haul.

 

[VikingsGuy]

@VikingsGuy feel like sharing some of your favorite picks for ETFs? I’m always curious what others are picking and how that aligns with where I am parking my money.

VTI
BND

That pair gets you “all” stocks and “all” bonds in US. Pick the risk/age appropriate ratio (hard to go wrong with 65-35) between them and you have the mathmatically proven optimal portfolio. There really is no strong basis for any others - but there are a few others I still like such as:

VIG or VYM for dividend chasers
VOO for S&P500 tracking
VOOV for S&P500 “value” stocks

 

[gwhunter]

not that anyone is asking me but here are some of my favorite ETFs

VOO
SCHD
VGT
VUG
BND

No VTSAX?!?!?!

 

[gwhunter]

I rarely post, but when things come up like this in the 'money and finance' forum I always feel compelled to share that the information that was part of the FIRE movement over at www.mrmoneymustache.com was absolutely life-changing and ground breaking for me. As a child of the 80s who grew up in the public school system without any financial literacy, the absolute simplicity of what Viking posted was so compelling for me. Either way, read it if you want, but it's good stuff

 

[Treeshark]

there is pretty good data that says 60-70% all US stock index and 30-40% all US bond index will outperform almost any other mix over long haul.

100% agree, VikingsGuy. I should have been more clear- I think the allocation guidance is much more important in the 5-10 years prior to retirement. Earlier on, I think you’re spot on- just make it easy and go heavy index.

*I must confess, I do dabble in individual stocks perhaps more than I should… it’s like gambling honestly, both the good and bad parts of it.

 

[jt13]

As a child of the 80s who grew up in the public school system without any financial literacy, the absolute simplicity of what Viking posted was so compelling for me.

As a child of the early 90's who went to exclusively private schools from pre-K through college, they didn't teach us financial literacy either.

Bogleheads was a good place for me to land, they practice what @VikingsGuy is preaching. I've also found that the Money Guy Show podcast is a good resource as well for the financially inept, simple commonsense advice.

 

[gwhunter]

As a child of the early 90's who went to exclusively private schools from pre-K through college, they didn't teach us financial literacy either.

Bogleheads was a good place for me to land, they practice what @VikingsGuy is preaching. I've also found that the Money Guy Show podcast is a good resource as well for the financially inept, simple commonsense advice.

I like Bogleheads ideas too and they align pretty well with the MMM stuff. I think what sold it for me with the FIRE movement stuff was how "easy" it could be to become financially independent on a 'normal' person's salary by being frugal on the important/money drain things that were for convenience/pleasure/ease. I think there are a variety of the same types of information that could send you down a rabbit hole if you just google FIRE movement. But you ultimately get shot right back out at low/no cost total stock market index funds at 80-100% allocation during your working career and then whatever allocation lets you sleep at night during retirement, set it and forget it.


I always loved this "cover" by JL Collins: Here (Adult Language)

 

[Irrelevant]

MMM lost me with he couldn't accept some lifestyle "cush", allow his wife to have a say in the family finances, and instead decided that dividing his estate 1/2 was a better financial move. Also, self-insurance is great, until it isn't. Most get lucky, some get ruined.

 

[gwhunter]

MMM lost me with he couldn't accept some lifestyle "cush", allow his wife to have a say in the family finances, and instead decided that dividing his estate 1/2 was a better financial move. Also, self-insurance is great, until it isn't. Most get lucky, some get ruined.

I did the "binge" read of all of his stuff prior to the divorce and hadn't really spent a lot of time reading his newer stuff. (He does seem like a weird guy) What appealed to me was the "don't spend a ton on a house, live close to work, don't spend a ton on a vehicle that is a depreciating liability, your retirement/FI date is a direct relation to your income vs spend amount, use the 4% rule, low fee index fund, etc." and how simple/easy all that was and the numbers that matched up with those premises.

I think I also don't agree with the 'extreme' lifestyle choice of only living on $25k/year when the guy has millions. But, looking at how inefficiently the normal person uses their money for things like dining out, expensive vehicle travel, house purchases, and things we all HAVE to have, it really adds up when you actually put the numbers/math to it. Not saying that it's the Starbucks that is making you not a millionaire, but the premise behind a lifestyle choice rooted in the Starbucks purchases not making you a millionaire that appealed to me. I also think the self-insurance talk applies only to a hyper-small subset of FIRE finishers and isn't really relevant to most people reading his stuff. Probably creates more damage than help in that capacity.

It's interesting because I just headed over there today and read his most recent article and he's buying a $50k tesla and is preaching "SPEND" once you get to that point of such wealth you couldn't fail if you tried.

 

[VikingsGuy]

MMM lost me with he couldn't accept some lifestyle "cush", allow his wife to have a say in the family finances, and instead decided that dividing his estate 1/2 was a better financial move. Also, self-insurance is great, until it isn't. Most get lucky, some get ruined.

I haven’t bothered to keep up will all the fad finance folks, but anyone who says absolutely zero debt, absolutely zero credit card use, no insurance or other extreme positions not only is just the financial equivalent of a fad “grapefruit diet” charlatan but also doesn’t understand how money actually works. Prohibition on smart debt, convenience use of credit cards even though they are always paid off monthly and other fad “bugaboos” are actually the opposite of efficient and effective money management.

As for the term “bogglehead”. I had never even heard that term until 2 or 3 years ago. The basis for my post was the the core math published out of Harvard biz school in the 70s and has been repeatedly validated in hundreds of studies since. I like vanguard because they are well run and very low cost/load. I have never read a word from their founder.

 

[trasko]

I haven’t bothered to keep up will all the fad finance folks

You might should have stopped there. You've created a strawman for MMM and then knocked it down.

It sounds like you didn't need anyone to break it down for you. That's great. He took the time to share his experience with the world and it is a message that r esonates with a lot of folks. I think if you were to read through it yourself you wouldn't find much to be upset about.

Re insurance: I think gwhunter is right that it only applies to a tiny subset of people and s erves to confuse more than. nything. Although in principle and in some instances MMM is right. Insurance is a for-profit business. Like a car mechanic. I f you can do it yourself then you keep the profit for yourself. If you are unskilled and/or delusional then the mistake can have big consequences. Like most I don't see the upside in self-insuring for health. But for cars? I don't do comprehensive because I'll fix my own car and if its totally dit is old anyway.a

 

[TOGIE]

lolz

out of the woodwork they come

 

[Irrelevant]

I haven’t bothered to keep up will all the fad finance folks, but anyone who says absolutely zero debt, absolutely zero credit card use, no insurance or other extreme positions not only is just the financial equivalent of a fad “grapefruit diet” charlatan but also doesn’t understand how money actually works. Prohibition on smart debt, convenience use of credit cards even though they are always paid off monthly and other fad “bugaboos” are actually the opposite of efficient and effective money management.

As for the term “bogglehead”. I had never even heard that term until 2 or 3 years ago. The basis for my post was the the core math published out of Harvard biz school in the 70s and has been repeatedly validated in hundreds of studies since. I like vanguard because they are well run and very low cost/load. I have never read a word from their founder.

My complaint was more that he was such a tight wad, trying to maximize everything, often by minimizing everything, that he drove his wife away.

 

[longbow51]

Never heard of the MMM guy, but in general, yeah, a lot of folks do waste a lot of money on Starbucks, lunch out every day, etc.

But, in the end, life is to be lived. Sure, save enough for a comfy retirement, but not spend money on hunting , fishing, vacations, and a few nice things for your family? That's just weird.

Nostalgie de la boue per Tom Wolfe via an 18th century French poet.

 

[LWC55]

For fifty years every serious study has shown that you can’t beat the market.

They must not have studied congress.