Wyoming unit 23

LCH

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I didn't, I was given that info by my contact from WGFD. So for 2018 you can infer that at most 80 residents will draw a type 2 tag and 400 will rollover to NR. At the least 30 residents will draw and 450 will rollover. So the real amount issued was somewhere in between. Also if you apply 1st choice in y and 3rd choice in x and draw your 1st choice then you are automatically removed from the draw BUT you still stay on the overall APP list. The last time I applied in the initial draw I put 29-2 for all 3 choices.

If there were 80 apps and only 49 issues then this can't possibly be the actual issue list.


I tdon't agree with your comment about 2nd and 3rd choice apps having lower numbers due to first choices being drawn. It's more likely that simply fewer folks apply.


https://wgfd.wyo.gov/WGFD/media/content/PDF/Hunting/Drawing Odds/DRAW_ANT_RES_2018.pdf
I don't mean this in a mean spirited way at all, and hope you nothing but the best on your private land hunt in 29, so I will spend no more time arguing.
 
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antelopedundee

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So how do you rationalize that 49 resident tags were issued when the draw odds clearly indicated a total of 80 apps? The table only gives the number of apps for each choice, but not the actual number of tags issued for each choice.

It would certainly be more useful if they would put the number of tags issued [in parentheses] next to the number of apps for each choice. I will suggest that to my contact in Cheyenne.
 

Clzandstra79

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Not sure where this 80 app number is coming from but this is how it works for unit 23 this year...


The quota was 440. 199 had it as first choice. Draw is done now there’s 221.

Now second choice drawing. 112 had it as second choice who didn’t draw there first choice tag. There may have been 400 people that had it as second choice and drew first choice so now they’re out of the draw leaning 112 left. They will all get a tag Leaving 109.

Now third choice draw. 44 people who didn’t draw first or second choice yet all get a tag. There could have been 600 that had it as third choice but have already drawn a tag so they’re not in third draw. So now third draw is over and there’s 65 left that roll over into NR draw.
 

antelopedundee

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Not sure where this 80 app number is coming from but this is how it works for unit 23 this year...


The quota was 440. 199 had it as first choice. Draw is done now there’s 221.

Now second choice drawing. 112 had it as second choice who didn’t draw there first choice tag. There may have been 400 people that had it as second choice and drew first choice so now they’re out of the draw leaning 112 left. They will all get a tag Leaving 109.

Now third choice draw. 44 people who didn’t draw first or second choice yet all get a tag. There could have been 600 that had it as third choice but have already drawn a tag so they’re not in third draw. So now third draw is over and there’s 65 left that roll over into NR draw.
80 is the number of resident Wyoming folks who applied for an area 29 type 2 tag in 2018. I've linked the odds listing before in another post. 30 had it as their 1st choice, 31 their 2nd choice and 19 as their 3rd choice. Only 49 residents drew tags from 80 applicants, but there's no way to know that from the odds report. I use that example since that info was given to me last year by someone from WGFD. The gist is that the fewer licenses issued to residents means more for the NR pool.

112 had it as their second choice but it doesn't mean that all 112 were successful. The heading says applicants and not successful applicants. And I've shown by the 80 apps 49 issued that your interpretation of the results is not correct. I will hopefully know tomorrow the exact number of 2nd and 3rd choice tags issued for 23. If I'm wrong I'll say so.

You'd have a better idea of what your competition is if they had put the 400 apps in the second choice slot instead of 112. If 114 people apply for 112 tags then you have a near 100% of drawing it as your 2nd choice if your first choice fails. If 400 people apply for 112 tags then you have a 28% chance of getting your 2nd choice.
 
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LCH

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Not sure where this 80 app number is coming from but this is how it works for unit 23 this year...


The quota was 440. 199 had it as first choice. Draw is done now there’s 221.

Now second choice drawing. 112 had it as second choice who didn’t draw there first choice tag. There may have been 400 people that had it as second choice and drew first choice so now they’re out of the draw leaning 112 left. They will all get a tag Leaving 109.

Now third choice draw. 44 people who didn’t draw first or second choice yet all get a tag. There could have been 600 that had it as third choice but have already drawn a tag so they’re not in third draw. So now third draw is over and there’s 65 left that roll over into NR draw.
Exactly.
 

LCH

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So how do you rationalize that 49 resident tags were issued when the draw odds clearly indicated a total of 80 apps? The table only gives the number of apps for each choice, but not the actual number of tags issued for each choice.

It would certainly be more useful if they would put the number of tags issued [in parentheses] next to the number of apps for each choice. I will suggest that to my contact in Cheyenne.
The 49 number is bogus. They all drew the tag.
 

antelopedundee

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The 49 number is bogus. They all drew the tag.
Not true.

This is verbatim from his email to me.


"Thomas,

The total quota was 600 for that license. 49 residents drew from their share of 480. The rest of the resident quota was rolled to the nonresidents for their draw giving them a total quota of 551. 291 were issued in the nonresident preference point draw and 63 were issued in the nonresident random draw. This gives a total of 402 licenses issued and a leftover of 198.

Last year in the leftover drawings, 175 of the 248 leftover licenses were issued in the leftover drawing. I would expect this year to be similar, but the total certainly could be issued in the leftover drawing this year."

The last year he is referring to is 2017.

ETA
I have not yet received a reply about the area 23 drawing for this year but going back to area 29 I asked the following:

"is there any way to determine from the WGFD site that 49 tags were drawn in the resident draw other than by asking? It looks like there were 80 apps among the 3 choices, but how does one determine how many were issued other that 100% or 30 first choice apps drew a tag?"

The response.

"That's a good question, and the unfortunate answer is there is no way to tell except by getting hold of us to go back and look at the spreadsheet from that drawing. I can't think of anything that will give you that info, because some of those residents would have drawn on both second and third choices."

So any presumption that those numbers in the odds listings represent licenses issued [except for maybe first choice] is simply incorrect.
 
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Clzandstra79

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80 is the number of resident Wyoming folks who applied for a area 29 type 2 tag in 2018. I've linked the odds listing before in another post. 30 had it as their 1st choice, 31 their 2nd choice and 19 as their 3rd choice. Only 49 residents drew tags from 80 applicants, but there's no way to know that from the odds report. I use that example since that info was given to me last year by someone from WGFD. The gist is that the fewer licenses issued to residents means more for the NR pool.

112 had it as their second choice but it doesn't mean that all 112 were successful. The heading says applicants and not successful applicants. And I've shown by the 80 apps 49 issued that your interpretation of the results is not correct. I will hopefully know tomorrow the exact number of 2nd and 3rd choice tags issued for 23. If I'm wrong I'll say so.

You'd have a better idea of what your competition is if they had put the 400 apps in the second choice slot instead of 112. If 114 people apply for 112 tags then you have a near 100% of drawing it as your 2nd choice if your first choice fails. If 400 people apply for 112 tags then you have a 28% chance of getting your 2nd choice.
80 residents drew from 480 tags.

30 drew as first choice, 31 as second and 19 as third.
 

antelopedundee

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80 residents drew from 480 tags.

30 drew as first choice, 31 as second and 19 as third.
No No No only 49 drew! The man said so.

So 19 2nd and 3rd choice apps drew 29-2 tags. 31 drew something other an a 29-2 tag. How hard is that to see? It apparently doesn't jive with how you think it works. At the top of each column it says applicants which is the total number of folks applying for a tag for each of the 3 choices. Number of applicants is a better indicator of demand than the tags issued is.
 
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Clzandstra79

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No No No only 49 drew! The man said so.

So 19 2nd and 3rd choice apps drew 29-2 tags. 31 drew something other an a 29-2 tag. How hard is that to see? It apparently doesn't jive with how you think it works.
The man is wrong. I have it in front of me right now.
 
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Clzandstra79

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The man is wrong. I have it in front of me right now. I’m not sure who’s feeding you the info but it’s really easy to follow online. I’m done with this as this is from 2018 and private land tags anyway which never sell out. Good luck in your hunting ventures
 

BuzzH

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The man is wrong. I have it in front of me right now.
I don't think the man is wrong...what you're looking at is the raw report on the number of 1st, 2nd, and 3rd choice applicants, not the total applicants that drew tags in each of the choices. The only applicants that for sure drew tags are those that applied for their first choice. There are some second choice applicants listed that drew their first, some 3rd choice applicants that probably drew either their first or second choice tags.

I'm pretty certain Antelopedundee has the right answer in post 69.
 

magnum44270

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Please correct me if I’m wrong but for residents Wyoming is a straight lottery? Therefore it kinda behooves you to apply in ‘good’ units for your first choice , then ‘public access is hard’ units for your second choice?

My point was also that a lot of the residents of unit 23 probably own land so can hunt their property... I didn’t realize that Gillette was partially in the unit.... obviously if you own a home in Gillette you probably don’t have the ability to hunt your property.

Also why ‘cant’ locals pay trespass fees?
Most of the private is chunks owned by large ranches. Most of rhese large private holdings lease the land to outfitters...most residents "cant"/wont because the average joe cannot afford the $ to lease, nor the $ to pay an outfitter, thats for you non residents.. also i wont pay a $500-1000 tresspass fee when i can kill goats on public....the map shows limited access, ill let you believe the maps
 

wllm1313

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....the map shows limited access, ill let you believe the maps
My point was more, that there are better places for R to put down for their first option...not that 23 was impossible to hunt.

Search my handle + pronghorn, I think you will find we see eye to eye lol
😉
 

magnum44270

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My point was more, that there are better places for R to put down for their first option...not that 23 was impossible to hunt.

Search my handle + pronghorn, I think you will find we see eye to eye lol
😉

There are, id much rather draw 110, but it never happens...also with elk, deer and goat going on at the same time its had to justify driving 5 hours for a 80in goat when i can shoot a 79 within 30 min drive and be able to shoot deer in the same area
 
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antelopedundee

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Not so fast my friend.

This was my question to the "man" regarding the resident draw for area 23 type 1.

"For antelope area 23 there were 112 residents who listed it as 2nd choice and 44 listed it as 3rd. How many of the 112 and 44 apps drew a tag?"

His reply.

"In the resident drawing, a total of 235 area 23 type 1 were issued to the residents and 205 rolled over to the nonresidents. How many of the 36 were second or third choice my boss would have to do a dive into the databases to determine and I'm not sure she would do it without a formal information request from you."

So there you have it. Out of 156 2nd and 3rd choice apps only 36 drew a tag. So that gave the NRs a pool of 315 tags. It seems that only the draws involving preference points give the number of tags issued.

If you're still convinced that it's all wrong you can always contact WGFD.

Good luck with your hunting.
 
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LCH

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Not so fast my friend.

This was my question to the "man" regarding the resident draw for area 23 type 1.

"For antelope area 23 there were 112 residents who listed it as 2nd choice and 44 listed it as 3rd. How many of the 112 and 44 apps drew a tag?"

His reply.

"In the resident drawing, a total of 235 area 23 type 1 were issued to the residents and 205 rolled over to the nonresidents. How many of the 36 were second or third choice my boss would have to do a dive into the databases to determine and I'm not sure she would do it without a formal information request from you."

So there you have it. Out of 156 2nd and 3rd choice apps only 36 drew a tag. So that gave the NRs a pool of 315 tags. It seems that only the draws involving preference points give the number of tags issued.

If you're still convinced that it's all wrong you can always contact WGFD.

Good luck with your hunting.
I concede that I was wrong with the 2nd and 3rd choice applicant numbers. I added all tags issued for 29-2, plus the number still on the leftover list, and it exceeds the quota listed in the regulations. It was my understanding that was flawed and I thank you for educating me on that part of the process, takeaway being that my 2nd and 3rd choice draw odds are actually better than they may appear.

I initially thought you were saying that some residents were unsuccessful in drawing a tag when their quota hadn't yet been met, and that those tags were being rolled over to the NR draws. I now think that you meant the ones that didn't draw that particular tag were previously successful for a different tag, which makes sense with the 2nd/3rd choice applicant numbers.

So go ahead and say you told me so, I can take it! LOL.
 
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