True, but given the OP's stated scenario, half a years income is a bunch of money. Lets just say its $25000. A downturn of 10% still leaves a bunch of money for an unplanned expense. The upside is just too much for me to pass up on. Particularly for funds that more than likely wont be touched in any one given year.
Was thinking this would be an interesting comparison.
Case 1
Individual makes 85k, 2% increase salary a year, start 2000 go to 2045. Max out 401k + 5k a year in a brokerage ever year. At years 2008 and 2020, individual loses job for six months. Take $25000 out of investments at both of those points, obviously no added investments.
What is their net worth at 2045.
Case 2
Individual makes 85k, 2% increase salary a year, start 2000 go to 2045. Max out 401k, $5000 a year into a 0% savings account until 40k, after that allocate the $5000 to a brokerage. At years 2008 and 2020, individual loses their job for six months, they don't sell anything from their portfolio but use their cash reserves. $25000 lost for living with $15000 used to buy the down of the market. So 15,000 in their 401k.
What is their net work at 2045
Run cases known market return rates for SP500 and then average 7.5% for 2022-2045.
My question by the model is does the cash reserve, not having to sell securities at their lowest value, and then being able to buy the down offset the $40,000 in reserve not in the market.
Someone posted a good article about what happens if you miss the best days a while back in the market and that got me thinking about this case.
I wonder if the correct amount of Emergency, is actually expenses + what you would invest otherwise for that 6 months.