TopRut Draw Odds???

[R.K.]

Going through the last-minute application motions here. Since I have the OnX membership, and that includes access to TopRut, I thought I'd use it. Could be a very friendly interface, but with a fair amount of confusing data, and maps that don't work as intended (maybe they're not integrated with the new MT Pronghorn units), I'm not exactly a fan.

What I'm mostly seeing here are numbers that don't make sense- 28 permits issued out of 29 applicants is not >99% odds of drawing (neither is 316 out of 323). The only logical explanation for what's below is there are residents that applied in a party application with nonresidents, or they are showing the "odds" of drawing from the previous year against the drawing results of that year. Does anyone know what's going on?




Either way, it forced me to go into the raw data and do my own chart making. I guess I know where I'm applying.

 

[Hyhunter]

Nothing as accurate as going right to the state website source. Toprut just easier to quickly check. I guess here in Colorado I always assumed those" one of 29" situations may mean the ones who did not draw the tags put in for it as a second choice but drew their first choice? Or in some states they maybe messed up the application i.e. forgot to purchase some stamp or whatever to be eligible.

Was the raw data significantly different from topruts?

 

[ImBillT]

I have to assume that the people who did not draw at two and three points failed to draw for some other reason considering that people with fewer points still drew. Is it not pure preference? I don’t apply in Montana.