SVB - CAO 😳

[Deleted member 28227]

My feelings regarding Trump are archived here pre-2016. He's a pos and terrible statesman...but it wasn't his fault that a terrible candidate, actually the worst in history as he is the second worst, was appointed. And I blame the GOP equally.

We are only arguing about the color of gloves to wear when handling opposite ends of the same turd wllm.

I just can't get behind kinco gloves they suck, I don't know why they have become a thing, wells lamont evr'y day

 

[noharleyyet]

Depends on the conspiracy you want to believe. Presidents don't have a lot of impact on the economy, particularly in the four years they are in office. But the public doesn't like complicated stuff, so they place credit/blame. The reality of politics is that the game is take credit for the good stuff and blame the bad stuff on the other person. That has ramped up 100x over the last few decades. Now it is all about visibility, not ideas. I'm sure more people can name the governor of Florida than the governor of New York. When we can't discuss ideas, or even look back and evaluate past actions, nothing gets done and we just spiral downwards. But maybe Presidential elections have always been popularity contests?

Do you think everyone that disagrees with your political dynamics is a Fox disciple...is it not the very core of politics to massage every last shred of verity and common sense to keep narrative on point. Yep there are real conspiracy outlier whacks, but it's also an overused term to minimize anything that detracts from messaging an agenda.

The reason we can name the coastie governors is because the pitchfork media are competing with the torch media. It's trite and it's 24/7...and it ain't a conspiracy.

 

[SAJ-99]

Do you think everyone that disagrees with your political dynamics is a Fox disciple...is it not the very core of politics to massage every last shred of verity and common sense to keep narrative on point. Yep there are real conspiracy outlier whacks, but it's also an overused term to minimize anything that detracts from messaging an agenda.

The reason we can name the coastie governors is because the pitchfork media are competing with the torch media. It's trite and it's 24/7...and it ain't a conspiracy.

The Fox News reference is a label, euphemism if you will, that I know people on this board will get. I don't know about any disciples, for any channel, but you and I have discussed enough to get a general idea of each other's political views. I admit I am enjoying the Dominion lawsuit as it points out the BS runs deep in that place.

I would love to keep this thread on point. Money for Infrastructure bills and Chips act largely haven't even begun to be spent, so assigning cause of inflation to that makes no sense. Inflation Reduction Act was a horrible name, but it wasn't money dropped from a helicopter either. The CARES act was from the prior admin and dropped over $2T, so put the "blame" in the right place, if that is your goal. TBills are short duration instruments, they weren't SVB's problem.

You want to discuss, give me data with your opinion. The civilian labor force just this year regained its Feb 2020 level. 3 years and no progress. GDP 20% higher but labor force the same. Posted Job openings 2x the amount of unemployed people. But you dismissed the problem as being labor related?

 

[VikingsGuy]

Someday all the grownups in the room will have to sit down and agree on how to spend the cash coming in to the treasury, while we balance the budget. Until that happens...Yawn.

As long as the general public continues to love having politics be an entertaining contact team sport, and as such fill the pockets of pundits, social media companies and news orgs, there will be no space for grownups.

And until a calm middle starts showing up in volume to primary elections, the threat of being “primaried” will ensure only the most extreme thinking will be displayed in govt.

Blaming politicians, soc media, and news orgs is a very sad attempt to absolve “we the people.” We have the government we have earned.

 

[noharleyyet]

The Fox News reference is a label, euphemism if you will, that I know people on this board will get. I don't know about any disciples, for any channel, but you and I have discussed enough to get a general idea of each other's political views. I admit I am enjoying the Dominion lawsuit as it points out the BS runs deep in that place.

I would love to keep this thread on point. Money for Infrastructure bills and Chips act largely haven't even begun to be spent, so assigning cause of inflation to that makes no sense. Inflation Reduction Act was a horrible name, but it wasn't money dropped from a helicopter either. The CARES act was from the prior admin and dropped over $2T, so put the "blame" in the right place, if that is your goal. TBills are short duration instruments, they weren't SVB's problem.

You want to discuss, give me data with your opinion. The civilian labor force just this year regained its Feb 2020 level. 3 years and no progress. GDP 20% higher but labor force the same. Posted Job openings 2x the amount of unemployed people. But you dismissed the problem as being labor related?

Sorry dude, I don’t take homework assignments nor discussion requirements. I’ll let you get back to keeping everything on point, otherwise it’s tough shit if you don’t like differing opinions.

 

[VikingsGuy]

Now it is all about visibility, not ideas. I'm sure more people can name the governor of Florida than the governor of New York.

Cherry picking. How about Georgia and California, or 2019 governor of NY and 2019 gov of Texas.

But maybe Presidential elections have always been popularity contests?

Nope pretty sure the constitution sets up an electoral college board game instead

 

[Big Fin]

If you are running a Vanguard US Treasury MMF, the last few days are the good old days for net cash inflow.

 

[VikingsGuy]

GDP 20% higher but labor force the same.

Due to inflation and covid lull comparison, not due to actual economic output when adjusted for them.

 

[VikingsGuy]

The Fox News reference is a label, euphemism if you will, that I know people on this board will get. I don't know about any disciples, for any channel, but you and I have discussed enough to get a general idea of each other's political views. I admit I am enjoying the Dominion lawsuit as it points out the BS runs deep in that place.

I would love to keep this thread on point. Money for Infrastructure bills and Chips act largely haven't even begun to be spent, so assigning cause of inflation to that makes no sense. Inflation Reduction Act was a horrible name, but it wasn't money dropped from a helicopter either. The CARES act was from the prior admin and dropped over $2T, so put the "blame" in the right place, if that is your goal. TBills are short duration instruments, they weren't SVB's problem.

You want to discuss, give me data with your opinion. The civilian labor force just this year regained its Feb 2020 level. 3 years and no progress. GDP 20% higher but labor force the same. Posted Job openings 2x the amount of unemployed people. But you dismissed the problem as being labor related?

Nobel laureate professor at top 5 Econ/finanice school tries to point out to a room full of 19 olds the effect of the spending choices of the last two presidents and last three congresses, and the inflation risk both created (and that we are now living). 40% of students lock step will only accept the answer being Trump tax cuts and “transitory supply disruptions” account for 100% of what we are seeing - there can be no other explanation. When asked what the other 60% of students shared - a trusted observers tells me, “the 60% have learned that when the blanket and unwavering progressive talking points are in the room there is no point in engaging and it‘s best to just tune out and get ready for the next class. And the funniest part is that the adamant group thinks they have some how convinced us, and do not see that we have just quit caring about anything they have to say.”

How is this actual event relevant? While I often agree with you on a range of topics and you are obviously a smart guy, sometimes you are just as predictable as the “Fox News” folks - just to the opposite set of talking points.

 

[SAJ-99]

Due to inflation and covid lull comparison, not due to actual economic output when adjusted for them.

See @noharleyyet, THIS is an argument.

 

[noharleyyet]

See @noharleyyet, THIS is an argument.

That’s ok, I knew you were cherry picking for objectivity’s sake.

 

[SAJ-99]

Noble laureate professor at top 5 Econ/finanice school tries to point out to a room full of 19 olds the effect of the spending choices of the last two presidents and last three congresses, and the inflation risk both created (and that we are now living). 40% of students lock step will only accept the answer being Trump tax cuts and “transitory supply disruptions” account for 100% of what we are seeing - there can be no other explanation. When asked what the other 60% of students shared - a trusted observers tells me, “the 60% have learned that when the blanket and unwavering progressive talking points are in the room there is no point in engaging and it‘s best to just tune out and get ready for the next class. And the funniest part is that the adamant group thinks they have some how convinced us, and do not see that we have just quit caring about anything they have to say.”

How is this actual event relevant? While I often agree with you on a range of topics and you are obviously a smart guy, sometimes you are just as predictable as the “Fox News” folks - just to the opposite set of talking points.

No, actually I disagree with a lot of what has been done, and have said so on HT. For example, I think the American Rescue Plan was seriously flawed in timing and structure, but it raised a lot of kids out of poverty so I look like a jerk if I bash it. When people say things we agree with, we tend to forget it easier than when people disagree. I think there is a legitimate discussion to be had on when the Fed should step in and when they shouldn't. Maybe the first trillion of asset purchases during covid was fine, but they went too far. And yes, that is part of our problem now, and certainly SVB's problem. I do agree that the economy needs some amount of creative destruction. But people tend to make these judgements from their own point of view (or too often the one they get from their political sources). Saving Silicon Valley Bank is going to be a different discussion than saving Farmers Bank of the Great Plains, just because of the biases we have built in our heads.

Economists tend to be very polarized. Not all, but as a group I have found them that way. I'm not sure they vary from most Americans, but their profession allows them to live in a Fantasy World, be it "Tax cuts pay for themselves" or "MMT wouldn't raise inflation". The answers in the real world tend to be a little of everything, but it doesn't fit economic models very well.

 

[SAJ-99]

That’s ok, I knew you were cherry picking for objectivity’s sake.

@VikingsGuy has a point. About 75% of nominal GDP growth was Inflation. Real GDP grew 5%. So GDP 5% higher with same labor force and tons of job openings and companies saying they can find qualified employees. Productivity back on long term trend. Do you stay strong to your opinion even if the data doesn't support it.

Most of my questions involve how messed up measurements of these things got during and post Covid. Response rates have trended down for a decade, but employment surveys at like 45% and JOLTS is 30%. I don't have an answer for it and I don't know how it affects data. But I also don't have an suggestions for something better.

 

[noharleyyet]

@VikingsGuy has a point. About 75% of nominal GDP growth was Inflation. Real GDP grew 5%. So GDP 5% higher with same labor force and tons of job openings and companies saying they can find qualified employees. Productivity back on long term trend. Do you stay strong to your opinion even if the data doesn't support it.

Most of my questions involve how messed up measurements of these things got during and post Covid. Response rates have trended down for a decade, but employment surveys at like 45% and JOLTS is 30%. I don't have an answer for it and I don't know how it affects data. But I also don't have an suggestions for something better.

 

[Deleted member 28227]

View attachment 268570

 

[BigHornRam]

Instead of spinning this bank failure to fit your preferred fox news/ mess NBC narrative, how about we assign blame to who deserves it?

Silicon Valley Bank committed 'one of the most elementary errors in banking,' Larry Summers says

Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers said Silicon Valley Bank made an "elementary" mistake in banking that led to its collapse and takeover by federal regulators.

www.foxbusiness.com

 

[brymoore]

Instead of spinning this bank failure to fit your preferred fox news/ mess NBC narrative, how about we assign blame to who deserves it?

Silicon Valley Bank committed 'one of the most elementary errors in banking,' Larry Summers says

Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers said Silicon Valley Bank made an "elementary" mistake in banking that led to its collapse and takeover by federal regulators.

www.foxbusiness.com

The only problem with Larry’s argument is that all banks do it to varying degrees. SVB just happened to be the worse at it. Bank’s regularly buy long term treasuries to hold to maturity. It’s no big deal, for the most part, as part of the normal investment plan for the bank funds. SVB got caught because of the rising rate environment and it’s micro lending to startup tech.

 

[BigHornRam]

The only problem with Larry’s argument is that all banks do it to varying degrees. SVB just happened to be the worse at it. Bank’s regularly buy long term treasuries to hold to maturity. It’s no big deal, for the most part, as part of the normal investment plan for the bank funds. SVB got caught because of the rising rate environment and it’s micro lending to startup tech.

The problem I see going forward, is all the too big to fail banks that everyone is racing to transfer their money into, also have to put that new money to work. I don't see a lot of "safe" lending opportunities out there right now. And the smaller banks that are losing depositors, see how long they last. I hear big European banks are starting to fail now. Dominoes starting to fall. Going to get ugly quick.

 

[SAJ-99]

This news didn’t help this morning.

First Republic Bank stock gains on report it's evaluating options including a sale

First Republic Bank (FRC) rose 4% on a report that it's evaluating strategic options, including a potential sale. The bank, whose shares have plunged 80% in the past week in the wake of...

seekingalpha.com

 

[brymoore]

The problem I see going forward, is all the too big to fail banks that everyone is racing to transfer their money into, also have to put that new money to work. I don't see a lot of "safe" lending opportunities out there right now. And the smaller banks that are losing depositors, see how long they last. I hear big European banks are starting to fail now. Dominoes starting to fall. Going to get ugly quick.

I work in Commercial Banking. Lots of solid banking opportunities by companies with very good cash flows, not startups. I haven’t seen any breaks/delinquencies in the economy nationally in the portfolios. We’re watching for signs of the recession but haven’t seen them yet. We all survived 2008 so we’re not inexperienced at seeing businesses struggle. They are growing right now.

Before the SVB crisis, banks were looking for deposits to fund its loans. The banks will solidify balance sheets and continue to lend.