Raffle hunts

[mdunc8]

Not to harp on it too much, but it's pretty important to understand how draw odds work if you plan on spending thousands of dollars over your lifetime.

Paden is correct, although I don't like his explanation. It's easy to follow using coin flips. Let's say Paden and I are the only two people in the raffle for the sheep. I'm "heads". He's "tails". Let's run it for three years. I think everyone will agree that we both a 50/50 change the first year. Pretty simple. There's 8 possible outcomes if you run the raffle three years: heads, heads, heads; heads, heads, tails; heads, tails, tails; tails, tails, tails; tails, tails, heads; tails, heads, tails; heads, tails, tails; and heads, tails, heads. There's only one possible run of events after three years where Paden (heads, heads, heads) or I (tails, tails, tails) will not draw a tag. Therefore, after three years, we each have increased our odds from 50% to 87.5%. However, our odds EACH year remain 50%.

 

[lamdilligaf]

Not to harp on it too much, but it's pretty important to understand how draw odds work if you plan on spending thousands of dollars over your lifetime.

Paden is correct, although I don't like his explanation. It's easy to follow using coin flips. Let's say Paden and I are the only two people in the raffle for the sheep. I'm "heads". He's "tails". Let's run it for three years. I think everyone will agree that we both a 50/50 change the first year. Pretty simple. There's 8 possible outcomes if you run the raffle three years: heads, heads, heads; heads, heads, tails; heads, tails, tails; tails, tails, tails; tails, tails, heads; tails, heads, tails; heads, tails, tails; and heads, tails, heads. There's only one possible run of events after three years where Paden (heads, heads, heads) or I (tails, tails, tails) will not draw a tag. Therefore, after three years, we each have increased our odds from 50% to 87.5%. However, our odds EACH year remain 50%.

mdunc8,
Your assumption is correct, but I sure hope you don't try that kind of an explanation with your graduate commitee. They're not going to like it very much.

 

[mdunc8]

I wouldn't really refer to it as an assumption. Also, I figured I'd dumb it down a little for everyone on here. I can throw around some big words and equations if you'd prefer.

 

[npaden]

Paden is correct, although I don't like his explanation.

Man, I can't get any love, even my explanations aren't any good!

Maybe I was hoping my explanation would be bad enough I could get them to bet me on rolling some dice!

 

[mdunc8]

My explanation would be bad enough I could get them to bet me on rolling some dice!

Oops. Forgot about that part. Sorry. I owe you a beer or two.