Raffle hunts

[npaden]

Okay, I'm contemplating putting in for another raffle drawing and am having a hard time getting it through my accountant mind that it really is worth it.

How do you guys justify putting in for these? I know that 1 chance in 2,000+ is better than no chance, but realistically I can't expect to draw one of those tags in my lifetime.

You can buy multiple chances in most of these raffles so maybe you put in for extras. For example the Colorado Big Horn Sheep raffle license you can buy up to 25 chances at $25 each. So for $625 you could jump all the way up to around a 1% chance to draw the tag.

If you did that every year for 50 years you would have spent $30,000+ for a 50% cummulative chance to win a tag. If you just saved your money up you could come close to buying an auction tag for that much!

I guess the problem is justifying the cost for the odds for me. (I play poker too so the pot odds are way against me here).

Do you just forget the odds and buy one or two chances and go on with life thinking of it more as a donation than as a true chance of winning?

I need to get my Colorado raffle ticket sent it pretty soon so help me justify it.

Thanks, Nathan

P.S. - I only buy a lottery ticket when the prize gets over $100 million. At that level your odds of winning exceed the cost of the ticket. I still don't expect to win, but at least the pot odds are in my favor!

 

[Baerman]

I'm sure you blow $25 here and $25 there on useless things multiple times a year. Just blow your casual spending cash on some raffle tickets instead. At least you have a chance at drawing a great tag.

 

[T Bone]

I always buy 2 tickets each for CO, ID, and MT. I have no expectation of ever drawing. It's a donation to a worthy cause.

 

[MNHunter]

I spend $25 on friggin movies at blockbuster for the weekend so I can justify a $25 chance at a dream hunt. I don’t gamble much, I don’t buy lotto tix so this is my form of gambling I guess. I look at it as one more chance to go on a dream hunt.

 

[NChunter]

$25 for a dream. sounds good to me. also you can't win if you don't enter.

 

[mixedbag]

Most of the raffles are for good sportsmans groups which help them and the resource alot.Makes it alot easier to jump in when you look at it that way.Odds are you'll never win so just consider it a membership in their group
BTW,1% odds are 1% odds no matter how many years you put in it won't increase your chances one bit

 

[Khunter]

I justify it based on my support for the cause the money goes to. You are not going to win, or you just might. But tickets that support valuable causes....

Such as the Colo governors elk tag. I will sell you a handful even if you really want to win it!

FYI your statistics suck. mixed bag pretty much nailed it. But if you care anything for the wildlife you hunt, you will buy some raffle tickets from organizations that will put the money to work on projects you want to see succeed. Or you will donate in some other manner.

 

[npaden]

Actually my statistics were very simplistic in my original post, but they are better than mixedbag's.

Each year you have a 1% chance, but your cummulative odds will be much higher than that if you apply every year.

If I'm computing it right, if you apply for 50 straight years with a 1% chance every year there is a 39.5% chance that you will end up drawing one of those years.

1(99/100)^50

If you applied for 100 straight years you would have a 63.4% chance of drawing one of those years.

1(99/100)^100.

Each year you have a 1% chance, but if you tell me up front you are going to apply for 50 straight years your odds are considerably higher.

 

[mdunc8]

If it makes you feel any better, I think the tags in Montana usually go for between $2-300,000, which makes the raffle route that more appealing. Like others have said, goes to a good cause unlike the money I contribute to the local watering holes on the weekends.

 

[BuzzH]

I think its worth buying a few tickets each year.

A good friend of mine won the Idaho Raffle tag a few years ago on $100 worth of tickets.

Got a decent ram out of the deal.

Last year he was second runner up in the Oregon bighorn raffle and has also drawn a sheep tag in MT.

 

[mdunc8]

Are those horns really dark or is that normal (or mud)?

 

[BuzzH]

Thats the color they were, and still are, when I saw them in Alaska this past september. Really different than his Montana sheep for sure.

 

[mixedbag]

Actually, the only thing you got right in your equation is the money you'd invest;to a good cause.Trust me, your odds will stay the same every year.Letme put it another way,if you buy 20 lottery tickets for the powerball,each ticket still carries that 1 in a billion chance.Unless your super rich,you can't really increase your odds at all in any raffle to make a difference.Your acting like theres a bonus point sysytem in place which there isn't.Odds stay 1% no matter how many years you apply
Buzz,I hope he lets you apply with him on party apps;one lucky man there
The main thing is that you support the ones for a good cause.

 

[T Bone]

mixedbag's probability analysis is correct. each year is single event probabilty.

 

[npaden]

Sorry guys, didn't mean for this to get into a math discussion, but you are missing the big picture.

Each year does stand on it's own, however the probability of going years without drawing is different than each stand alone event.

An easy way to prove it is rolling dice. There is 1 out of 6 chance of rolling a specific number. Let's say we want to roll a 1. There is a 1 in 6 chance every time we roll that it will come up as a 1. 16.67%.

The chances each time you roll are the same, however if you roll the dice 6 times there is a 66.6% chance (1-(5/6)^6) that one of those rolls will come up a 1.

If you want we can put some money on it. There is a 1 in 6 chance that I will roll a 1 on the dice. I'll even give you better odds and only make you pay me $2 if I roll a 1 and I'll pay you $1 if I don't. The odds are dramatically in your favor. Now let's keep those odds the same way and let me roll the dice 10 times, or even better 50 times. The odds of me rolling a 1 out of 10 rolls increases to 83.8%, out of 50 times it goes to 99.9%.

Each roll is a stand alone event and the odds stand by themselves, but the your chances to increase with every roll of eventually rolling that 1.

Anyone want to bet me $100 that I won't roll a 1 if I get 10 chances of rolling the dice? I'll give you 2 to 1 odds, I'll pay $200 if I don't roll a 1 and you pay me $100 if I do. The odds of rolling a 1 are only 16.67% so the odds are way in your favor on each individual roll.

 

[BuzzH]

Buzz,I hope he lets you apply with him on party apps;one lucky man there

I applied on a party hunt with him this year in AK....and we both drew Musk-ox tags (his 3rd muskox tag). Of course my buddy had to one up me...and drew the early TOK sheep tag as well.

 

[T Bone]

npaden,

use your $100 betting money on the raflle hunts.

I've been proven lucky with this years BAYED, I'm going to pull a sheep tag this year.

 

[npaden]

npaden,

use your $100 betting money on the raflle hunts.

I've been proven lucky with this years BAYED, I'm going to pull a sheep tag this year.

I was hoping to win some more money from you guys so I could buy some more raffle tickets!

 

[noharleyyet]

It usually depends on the ticket seller. Ducks Unlimited's salesgals can be tough to refuse.

 

[npaden]

I just sent my Colorado RMBS raffle application in. Ended up spending $100 on it. 2 Bighorn Sheep and 2 Mountain Goats.

Based on mixedbag and tbone's theory I just wasted $50 since I don't have any better chance of drawing with 2 purchased than 1 though!