mdunc8
Well-known member
Not to harp on it too much, but it's pretty important to understand how draw odds work if you plan on spending thousands of dollars over your lifetime.
Paden is correct, although I don't like his explanation. It's easy to follow using coin flips. Let's say Paden and I are the only two people in the raffle for the sheep. I'm "heads". He's "tails". Let's run it for three years. I think everyone will agree that we both a 50/50 change the first year. Pretty simple. There's 8 possible outcomes if you run the raffle three years: heads, heads, heads; heads, heads, tails; heads, tails, tails; tails, tails, tails; tails, tails, heads; tails, heads, tails; heads, tails, tails; and heads, tails, heads. There's only one possible run of events after three years where Paden (heads, heads, heads) or I (tails, tails, tails) will not draw a tag. Therefore, after three years, we each have increased our odds from 50% to 87.5%. However, our odds EACH year remain 50%.
Paden is correct, although I don't like his explanation. It's easy to follow using coin flips. Let's say Paden and I are the only two people in the raffle for the sheep. I'm "heads". He's "tails". Let's run it for three years. I think everyone will agree that we both a 50/50 change the first year. Pretty simple. There's 8 possible outcomes if you run the raffle three years: heads, heads, heads; heads, heads, tails; heads, tails, tails; tails, tails, tails; tails, tails, heads; tails, heads, tails; heads, tails, tails; and heads, tails, heads. There's only one possible run of events after three years where Paden (heads, heads, heads) or I (tails, tails, tails) will not draw a tag. Therefore, after three years, we each have increased our odds from 50% to 87.5%. However, our odds EACH year remain 50%.