Public School Math and Statistics

Think how many scratch offs people buy?

I'll grant you odds are awful in terms of ROI - but you cant just get more points without getting older. I am glad those people are applying though, keeps the GF funded for management of them i guess.

I know that if you took your point apps and fees and annually tossed in an s&p 500 etf, you would probably be able to buy one in canada/alaska faster!
 
Here is my personal favorite, I'm in the 162, often times I have to remind myself not to stick my tongue on cold flag poles or ski lift safety bars.
Montana, Nonresident - 2023
Hunt Code 680-20

Bonus
Points​
Applicants​
Permits
Issued​
Draw
Odds​
231620-
221130-
21751-
20780-
19690-
18660-
17671-
161040-
151110-
14940-
131030-
12970-
11870-
101110-
91050-
8890-
71150-
61320-
51450-
41180-
31550-
21400-
11940-
Totals:25302
I still kick myself for not starting on that one when I was a teenager and the friends I had there started packing in piles of sheds each year while moving cows. Oops
 
Hot take, no one has failed 3rd grade math harder than folks who buy CO bear points.

You folks are dumb as rocks.
Haha, so true, I actually have six bear points from when I was a resident from 2005/13, and going to let them expire, since it’s been 10 years as of this year (been a resident in another state since 2014). Back then I was going to try to draw a Bosque Del Oso or 61 tag.

I’m still keeping and applying for moose, sheep, goat, elk, and deer, bc I will one day have the time/money to go or might work there on a project for 6 months and get residency again before the Lord returns. At least the money goes to support wildlife and other public resources.
 
I know that if you took your point apps and fees and annually tossed in an s&p 500 etf, you would probably be able to buy one in canada/alaska faster!
About 5 years ago I Iooked at all the available sheep tags, and if you applied for every sheep tag in the west it was ~$2k a year non-refundable. There was about 120 sheep tags available for NR half of those are in NV and WY if I remember right. I'd bet it's even less now.

Sheep hunts $ in AK have been increasing 10% a year or more. I know of 3 outfits that are charging $40k for a dall this fall and most are in the $30k+ range. Canada is 20% more at least... If you started 10 years ago maybe you could catch it and invested $5k a year now.

Dall sheep populations in both places are half of what they were 10 years ago, and are not coming back in AK anytime soon. With good weather wed need 20 years to get back to what it was just 10 years ago.

I gave up on big three in the L48 almost 15 years ago. The odds as a NR weren't worth the squeeze for me. @Dinkshooter posted the best sheep odds in the state for NR sheep (2 tags for the unit). Last I looked about 12k NR were applying for 7-8 ram tags. Raffle hunts have better odds.

I apply for a few other states, but mostly just for deer and elk. I just don't care that much anymore, and nothing in the L48 really appeals to me, at least not enough to spend stupid money on points for tags I'll never draw.
 
I still kick myself for not starting on that one when I was a teenager and the friends I had there started packing in piles of sheds each year while moving cows. Oops

Sheep sheds?
 
I’d wager a guess that 75% of applicants don’t really understand how each draw system works.

I hear it every year here in CO “I should draw my sheep tag this year, my BIL drew it with 8 points and that’s what I have this year”

“I have just been building moose points and should have more then enough to draw when I retire in 4 years”

“I always thought the NW corner Elk tags were really hard to draw but my cousin drew last year with 7 points so I’m just gonna burn my points up there this year”

“CPW screwed us, my brother who lives in Ohio had 3 more points than me (resident) and we both put in for 61 and I drew and he didn’t!”

It’s pointless to try to explain the MSG draw, res/non res allocation or the hybrid draw you are usually just met with a blank stare.
 
Hope is a powerful drug.


I’d crawl through Andy’s sewer tunnel for some tags

792535.jpg
 
Hot take, no one has failed 3rd grade math harder than folks who buy CO bear points.

You folks are dumb as rocks.
I buy bear points for the same reason I buy the trapping license, to inflate the value of those pursuits to the CPW and hopefully the general public. I don't know if that math works out either, but I can also guarantee any September bear tag I want and get rid of those trash pandas in my yard.
 
I feel sorry for the young guys trying to enter the draws first time. If I were them I see only 3 states left that it makes any sense to build points, and 2 random. That’s it. Any other states fees, including WY sheep & moose, are better invested in savings accounts for guided Canada hunts down the road. As a DIYer, not sure if I could stomach that.
 
I feel sorry for the young guys trying to enter the draws first time. If I were them I see only 3 states left that it makes any sense to build points, and 2 random. That’s it. Any other states fees, including WY sheep & moose, are better invested in savings accounts for guided Canada hunts down the road. As a DIYer, not sure if I could stomach that.
Investing a few hundred a year in a "savings account" won't buy you many hunts down the road.

Did you mean brokerage account?
 
I threw in the towel last year on WY moose. I had a lot of points, and there was at least some hope of drawing a tag in the distant future. It was still hard stomaching $150/year (plus more if actually applying). When they dropped the % of tags to NR, all hope was lost. Sure, the moose population could rebound in the future, or they could change type of draw, but they won't be increasing % of tags to NR, and the odds are just too low for me to see the value for myself at this point.

A lot of folks mention saving for a guided hunt, and this is a more logical choice financially and realistically, but my dream was a DIY style hunt that is done on my terms with as much time as I wanted to devote to it. I still have possibilities at this, but that was the hardest part of letting go in WY. I'm happy that I did, though. My money can now go to more realistic possibilities.

No chance I'd be starting from ground level, and I won't be starting my kids out in it either.
 

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