How do you do this? Compare the individual application number to something??
Oregon is unique in that we use a "seed number" as the starting number for filling tags. Most states sort by points, then random numbers, then go "up" from zero trying to fill tags.
Oregon sorts by points and random numbers as well, but, goes up from the hunt series "seed number", which eliminates any possibility of the random number generator giving preference to anyone. The dept has 10 numbered ping pong balls that get spun around in a little wooden box and members of the public pick one ball at a time, creating a 7 digit number (7 in 2019, 10 in prior years), starting with the left most digit. The draw computer will go "up" from this number, to 9,999,999 then loop around to 0 and continue up, so...... if you have the points to draw in the PP side, your number won't matter that much however, if you are on the cusp, say 100 max point apps and 75 tags in the PP side, you want a number in the 75 percentile. It's obviously not perfect but you can divide the number of apps into the total seed number possibilities and get a ratio of random numbers per app. If there are 500,000 possibles per app and you know your random number and the seed number, you can make a beer league guess as to whether the computer will hit your number before it fills all the tags. This is assuming an even spread of random numbers across the applicants. My 2018 Antelope random number was 8,734,875,258, and the Antelope seed number was 7,152,648,667. Knowing I "should" be in the max point pool for that hunt, and a good random number, I was sure I'd draw. Even if people jumped in, I should draw in the random side with that number. Turns out a bunch of apps moved in with more points and they only pulled a handful from my point pool but with that good number I drew.
You carry that random number to the random draw as well, so, if you just missed in the PP side, you will have an advantage of a good random number in the random side. If your random number is just under the seed number, you're pretty much hooped unless you have the points or the hunt is under subscribed.
Oregon also creates their application random numbers differently than most others. Oregon creates your app random number when you hit the "submit" button on your app, per species. Wyoming for example, sorts the app database by customer ID then assigns random numbers thru that sorted database.
10,000,000 / applicants * number of tags = random number spread to allocate those tags. Again, assuming all random numbers are spread evenly.
ex; 1000 applicants for 100 tags, would be a total random number spread of 1,000,000 random numbers, or 10,000 random numbers for each tag. If the Elk seed number is 5,919,336, and your random number is 5, 969,336 you should be good. They show your species random numbers under the "application number" heading on your online account, controlled hunt page.
View attachment 108380
Educated guess. This system works fine for letting you know you did not draw a tag if your number is well beyond expected range to award a tag when compared to the seed number. There is a range however that is close to the seed number but might not be close enough depending on how the applicant mix and number changed from the prior draw. My take on the system is as a non-resident you might as well wait for the results since if your number is in the "sort of close" range of the seed number then you just don't know anyway. I can't think of any hunt plans or application strategy of mine that change by knowing Oregon results few weeks ago vs. this week.I guess I'm missing something.
"10,000,000 / applicants * number of tags = random number spread to allocate those tags. Again, assuming all random numbers are spread evenly. "
How do you know how many applicants have applied for a given hunt before the draw stats come out?
Still that way for me, even at 11:30 at night.can't log in either, site must be getting slammed.