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NFL Draft Predictions - a pointless game, but at least it has a $$ prize for the winner

Fields was never that cool. He just benefited from the new NFL rules where you’re not allowed to touch the quarterback, so once teams figured how to keep him from dancing around he turned into Zach Wilson.
Fields actually did not get a ton of calls when running. There were multiple times he got hit that would be a penalty with over QB's.

Fields actually got better every year with the Bears.

The biggest issue with Fields is that he had to see it open before pulling the trigger and he created too many negative plays as a result.
 
Time will tell.
I don't think the Vikings should trade up, particularly if they do it for JJ McCarthy. Nix will be there at 11 and I like what I saw from him last year. Odds on him and McCarthy and Penix all about the same. I'm not sure it worth giving up extra picks.

@TheDudeAbides - shhhh! you aren't supposed to tell them they might be searching for that top tier QB for 50 years.


Crazy talk. Fields ran for over 1100 yards in 15 games in 2022. He often got rocked, if not directly hurt, from running the ball. Not sure how he "benefitted". He only had 420 last year because they told him to cut back on running and throw the ball. And even after three years, scouts were still divided. He was viewed as either a bust or not having a supporting cast or "not used in the right way". Some scouts love athletic, scrabbling QBs. See Cam Newton. But even the good ones have short careers. I would rather have the slow, unathletic guy that can read a defense.

I mean. You probably needed to cut back on his running, because he got hurt every year and they really did not call late hits on him.

Some of the injuries may be due to dare I say being vegan. ;)

Fields also took a lot of unnecessary hits in the pocket, because he did not pull the trigger on open receivers.

Fields was tossed into a bad situation in Chicago. A situation that if the Bears did not hold the top pick, they would probably be building around him.

Since the Bears can get Caleb Williams they decided to let Fields go to Pittsburgh for a fax machine and some cheese crackers.

Fields can still succeed in the NFL, because he is still getting better.

However, I am not sure a team can afford to give him another 3 years to develop and keep their jobs.

He is just a slow developer who is incredibly talented.
 
This is a common issue in the NFL. A GM trying to save his job makes a ton of moves that set the franchise back years.
Yup. NFL is a win now league. Just look at how draft picks are valued. The general consensus is that you take a one round deduction to pick swap a this year’s pick for next year’s. For example you would get a next year round 2 in return for this year’s round 3. So, if you were managing for the long term you would trade a bunch of this year’s picks for better next year picks. Your 2,3,4 this year would turn into a second 1,2,3 next year. But fans, pundits and owners would have their heads explode if a GM did this.
 
Vikings’ Armageddon - Caleb, Jaeden, Maye get picked by Bears, Commies and Pats. NYG swap with Chargers to get JJ. LV jumps up to 7 and takes Pennix. Sean Payton loves a short but quick/accurate weak armed QB and Denver jumps to 9 and grabs Nix. Vikings get zero QB and play the year with Darnold. Everybody in the front office gets fired.
I don't know. You have a pretty good coach.

You would probably trade back and try to get Spencer Rattler later and get more picks into next year.

If you do think that Penix and Nix are going to go in the first round, then I suggest you put a bet on it.

The current O/U on both is 32.5 on Draft Kings

If you did a top ten with betting odds

1) Caleb Williams -20000 to go first overall.

2) Jayden Daniels -379 to go 2nd overall

3) Drake Maye -220 to go 3rd overall

4) Marvin Harrison -240 to go 4th overall

5) Malik Nabers +230 to go 5th overall

6) Malik Nabers +170 to go 6th overall / Rome Odunze +300 to go 6th overall

7) Joe Alt -140 to go 7th overall

8) Laiatu Latu +250 / Dallas Turner +250 to go 8th overall

9) Rome Odunze +150 / Byron Murphy +600 to go 9th overall

10) Brock Bowers +145 to go 10th overall
 
Yup. NFL is a win now league. Just look at how draft picks are valued. The general consensus is that you take a one round deduction to pick swap a this year’s pick for next year’s. For example you would get a next year round 2 in return for this year’s round 3. So, if you were managing for the long term you would trade a bunch of this year’s picks for better next year picks. Your 2,3,4 this year would turn into a second 1,2,3 next year. But fans, pundits and owners would have their heads explode if a GM did this.
Which is why it makes what the Bears, Cardinals, Texans, and Lions have done unique.

When the GM got to the Bears he blew it up, it was one of the worst jobs at the time. No Cap Space and No Picks. Then rather than trying to win now, he built the roster and due to trading back in the draft. The Bears have premium capital this year.

When the GM got the Lions they blew it up, the Lions have historically been rebuilding his the 90's. However, they built the trenches and then attacked premium positions and now are one of the favorites in the NFC with a bright next couple of years.

The Cardinals were one of the worst run franchises in the NFL. The drafted non premium positions high a lot and a lot of the players did not pan out. This year they have a ton of capital and can either get Marvin Harrison Jr or get a haul to set the franchise up for success in the future.

The Texans were in purgatory with Deshaun Watson. They decided to just tread water until they can move him. Then after they moved him, the expedited the rebuild and now are the favorites in the division.

I use these as examples, because there are many teams like the Saints, Dolphins, Vikings, Cowboys, etc that would rather be stuck in mediocrity than building a contender by being bad for a few years and getting capital and building a roster.
 
Great Arm, Elite Athleticism, and throws a great deep ball.

That is what I was speaking about with Talent.
Unfortunately for him, those attributes are necessary but not sufficient to be a great NFL qb. Above the neck is half the game and he just doesn’t see the field and make sufficiently fast decisions to be a worthwhile starter.
 
The Fields situation is an interesting one. The Steelers have had the worst offense in the league and it's not even close for the past 4 seasons including Ben's last two years where he was essentially a 95 year old statue with a noodle arm throwing 1 yard screens. The QB play was beyond pathetic and elementary level at best, yet they won enough games with Duck Hodges, Mason Rudolph, Kenny Pickett, and Mitch Trubisky to be above .500 and make the playoffs 3 times that span in a damn good division. Even with Fields's flaws and negative plays, he would have made PIT 10x better on offense even if he had poor processing skills. I think he has a damn good chance of having a really good career in Pittsburgh. I would have given anything for even below average QB play the past 4 years. Zero playmaking, zero 15+ yard (through the air) completed throws, and an absolute struggle to get a first down all game long. If he doesn't pan out in PIT then that's it. No more excuses for him.

Steelers had 13 passing touchdowns last year TOTAL. 13....and that's with pocket QB's so it's not like they had guys scrambling for TD's instead. Fields is way more capable than that. At least I would hope so 😵‍💫
 
Unfortunately for him, those attributes are necessary but not sufficient to be a great NFL qb. Above the neck is half the game and he just doesn’t see the field and make sufficiently fast decisions to be a worthwhile starter.

Well, if he doesn't continue to develop. Then yes.

However, he had made strides and gotten better every year in the league.

The issue is that, I do not think a team will give him the time to finish the process. Now that the Bears have moved off of him.
 
The Fields situation is an interesting one. The Steelers have had the worst offense in the league and it's not even close for the past 4 seasons including Ben's last two years where he was essentially a 95 year old statue with a noodle arm throwing 1 yard screens. The QB play was beyond pathetic and elementary level at best, yet they won enough games with Duck Hodges, Mason Rudolph, Kenny Pickett, and Mitch Trubisky to be above .500 and make the playoffs 3 times that span in a damn good division. Even with Fields's flaws and negative plays, he would have made PIT 10x better on offense even if he had poor processing skills. I think he has a damn good chance of having a really good career in Pittsburgh. I would have given anything for even below average QB play the past 4 years. Zero playmaking, zero 15+ yard (through the air) completed throws, and an absolute struggle to get a first down all game long. If he doesn't pan out in PIT then that's it. No more excuses for him.

Steelers had 13 passing touchdowns last year TOTAL. 13....and that's with pocket QB's so it's not like they had guys scrambling for TD's instead. Fields is way more capable than that. At least I would hope so 😵‍💫
And to think people wanted Tomlins head last season before their run into the playoffs.

Tomlin has flaws as a coach, but given what he has had to work with in his tenure.

He has been nothing short of amazing.

The only thing, I will say is that Fields is the backup and you have Russell Wilson "Steeler's Country, Let's Ride" as your rollercoaster starter.

Arthur Smith as OC will probably help a lot with the big plays, but just expect them from Connor Hayward and not George Pickens. ;)

All Smith Jokes aside, he made Tannehill look amazing in Tennessee.

Might be a bad HC, but he is a great offensive mind.
 
Great Arm, Elite Athleticism, and throws a great deep ball.

That is what I was speaking about with Talent.
That's the problem. The NFL washed-up pile is littered with guys like that. It is a crazy-hard position.

He isn't accurate on the short ball and can't go through progressions. He relies too much on that athleticism to get him out of trouble. I (and the NFL apparently) disagree that he has gotten better each year. A scout quoted it perfectly. He said "some guys get 3 years of experience and some guys keep doing the same thing for 3 yrs." But I agree that someone can be enticed by what he could be.

Interesting for Pittsburgh, they picked up the two guys that led the league on Time in Pocket. It will be interesting to see how that works out for them. Right now, it is optimism season for every team and fan.
 
Unfortunately for him, those attributes are necessary but not sufficient to be a great NFL qb. Above the neck is half the game and he just doesn’t see the field and make sufficiently fast decisions to be a worthwhile starter.
Do you think if Fields was drafted by Baltimore and put in the same situation as Lamar was with elite coaching, smash mouth veteran o line, all pro tight end, defense, and run game, that his career would be different so far? Lamar got to sit as a rookie and he was still awful his first few seasons of being a consistent processer but the coaching staff and talent around him never put him in position to have to process the entire game. They use his elite athleticism and played complimentary football. Lamar still isn't a great processor. He still needs a very balanced offense. But he is an absolute weapon and is put in position to succeed with his skill sets. I just think so much of it is about the organization and coaching staff you end up with.
 
And to think people wanted Tomlins head last season before their run into the playoffs.

Tomlin has flaws as a coach, but given what he has had to work with in his tenure.

He has been nothing short of amazing.

The only thing, I will say is that Fields is the backup and you have Russell Wilson "Steeler's Country, Let's Ride" as your rollercoaster starter.

Arthur Smith as OC will probably help a lot with the big plays, but just expect them from Connor Hayward and not George Pickens. ;)

All Smith Jokes aside, he made Tannehill look amazing in Tennessee.

Might be a bad HC, but he is a great offensive mind.

Pittsburgh doesn't deserve Tomlin with how they have treated him.

Yeah good lord i can't be any worse than it has been that's all I can say haha. I expect them to work out a multi year deal with Fields so he will have the chance to win the job whether it's this year or next year. Tomlin is fair so it will absolutely be a competition between he and Russ. Will be fun to see it play out. I actually love the Smith hire. Their roster and style of play is exactly what Smith thrives with.

They restructured Highsmith's contract yesterday to clear another 7 million in space putting them just shy of 20 mil which is extremely bizarre move for them to do Draft-eve unless you are trying to make a deal. I expect them to trade for a good vet receiver tonight or tomorrow.

Hopefully lots of chaos and trades throughout the first round tonight. Makes it more fun and entertaining!
 
Do you think if Fields was drafted by Baltimore and put in the same situation as Lamar was with elite coaching, smash mouth veteran o line, all pro tight end, defense, and run game, that his career would be different so far? Lamar got to sit as a rookie and he was still awful his first few seasons of being a consistent processer but the coaching staff and talent around him never put him in position to have to process the entire game. They use his elite athleticism and played complimentary football. Lamar still isn't a great processor. He still needs a very balanced offense. But he is an absolute weapon and is put in position to succeed with his skill sets. I just think so much of it is about the organization and coaching staff you end up with.
Lamar was a better passer in college and a better passer in NFL than Fields. He still uses his feet more than I would like, but he is not a "running back with an arm" in my view.

There are "stiff pocket passers" (think Cousins, Carr), "fluid pocket passers" who can move enough and sense pressure enough to move around the pocket effectively (think Brady, Burrows, Brees), "mobile quarterbacks" who can run if things break down but who move to make plays and are still pass first focus (think Mahomes and Allen), "running QBs" that can still run a passing offense (think Lamar); and guys who are run first with big arms who use running as a bailout for failure to read defenses and throw on time (think Fields).

In the 2024 game the most valuable is the mobile QB, the next most valuable is the fluid pocket passer, the next the running qbs, then the stiff pocket passers and finally the run first guys. With the right roster construction and offense the first 4 styles can win big in the NFL. I think the "run first" guys are a waste of a roster spot, but folks like to pretend they are "running qbs" that just need more time.
 
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Lamar was a better passer in college and a better passer in NFL than Fields. He still uses his feet more than I would like, but he is not a "running back with an arm" in my view.

There are "stiff pocket passers" (think Cousins, Carr), "fluid pocket passers" who can move enough and sense pressure enough to move around the pocket effectively (think Brady, Burrows, Brees), "mobile quarterbacks" who can run if things break down but who move to make plays and are still pass first focus (think Mahomes and Allen), "running QBs" that can still run a passing offense (think Lamar); and guys who are run first with big arms who use running as a bailout for failure to read defenses and throw on time (think Fields).

In the 2024 game the most valuable is the mobile QB, the next most valuable is the fluid pocket passer, the next the running qbs, then the stiff pocket passers and finally the run first guys. With the right roster construction and offense the first 4 styles can win big in the NFL. I think the "run first" guys are a waste of a roster spot, but folks like to pretend they are "running qbs" that just need more time.
Agree for the most part but it also comes down to scheme, talent around you, and coaching fit. Josh Allen was horrible his first two seasons and you could argue he was essentially a big athlete with a big arm that took off running all the time. His o-line and supporting cast sucked though which is why he trusted his feet more. He was also a turnover machine. Had Fields sat a year and then been plugged into a system like Baltimore's, I do think he thrives. There is nothing that Jackson does that Fields can't do talent wise. Have the number 1 rushing attack in the league and a top 3 defense all game and your processing becomes easy to hit wide open lanes over the middle of the field. The Ravens physically wear you out all day and the passing lanes are wide open because they are averaging 7 yards a carry all afternoon. Maybe Fields really is awful at understanding the position and making reads. He'll have a chance to prove people wrong and no excuses now.
 
Agree for the most part but it also comes down to scheme, talent around you, and coaching fit. Josh Allen was horrible his first two seasons and you could argue he was essentially a big athlete with a big arm that took off running all the time. His o-line and supporting cast sucked though which is why he trusted his feet more. He was also a turnover machine. Had Fields sat a year and then been plugged into a system like Baltimore's, I do think he thrives. There is nothing that Jackson does that Fields can't do talent wise. Have the number 1 rushing attack in the league and a top 3 defense all game and your processing becomes easy to hit wide open lanes over the middle of the field. The Ravens physically wear you out all day and the passing lanes are wide open because they are averaging 7 yards a carry all afternoon. Maybe Fields really is awful at understanding the position and making reads. He'll have a chance to prove people wrong and no excuses now.
The advanced stats are interesting. Fields leads the league at time in pocket (the time from taking the snap to getting pressured) and is near the top in getting pressured, sacks, etc. To me, that shows he is holding the ball too long. Is that happening because his receivers suck (common excuse)? and does his Oline suck be he is holding the ball too long? Lamar is near the bottom in lowest % pressured but right behind Fields in time in pocket. Clearly there is a difference somewhere, both individual and team. I agree, an NFL team is a complicated scheme of moving parts that have to work together. Like I said, AI will figure this out eventually.

To @VikingsGuy point, A lot of teams think, "he does this poorly but we can fix that." I can't think of situation where a QB flaw was fixed. Maybe there is an example?
 
Do you think if Fields was drafted by Baltimore and put in the same situation as Lamar was with elite coaching, smash mouth veteran o line, all pro tight end, defense, and run game, that his career would be different so far? Lamar got to sit as a rookie and he was still awful his first few seasons of being a consistent processer but the coaching staff and talent around him never put him in position to have to process the entire game. They use his elite athleticism and played complimentary football. Lamar still isn't a great processor. He still needs a very balanced offense. But he is an absolute weapon and is put in position to succeed with his skill sets. I just think so much of it is about the organization and coaching staff you end up with.

I don't. Lamar's progression as a QB was rapid. I get that the run game helped, but Lamar being able to develop the ability to go through progressions fire the ball on time and on target from the pocket would have worked for any team.

Lamar's ability to overcome adversity was the reason why he succeeded. People forget how bad he was against the Chargers in the playoffs. He looked like Mac Jones for the Patriots last season and couldn't throw the ball into the ocean from the beach.

The fact Lamar went from that to MVP Lamar is more on Lamar than the what the Ravens did schematically or personnel wise.
 
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