New Mexico Outfitter Draw Set-Aside is Toast -Finally !

[bayoublaster7527]

You guys really need to do the math before you get excited about this as a NR. It definitely moves the needle in. In the wrong direction.
This will absolutely hurt DIY NR odds. Of the 10% outfitter pool, 90% of those apps are non-residents. Meaning right now, about 15% of the tags go to NR. If the NR from the outfitter pool moves to the DIY pool, and the total NR pool is reduced to 10%, It's not going to be good for NR draw odds.

I don't blame the residents for pushing this, but don't be fooled by the ones saying this is a win for non-residents.

It sounds good on the surface, but it doesn't math out. You would actually see a decline in odds..
At least, with some basic assumptions that:
If the guide pool goes away, those people still apply in either the r or nr pool
The data stays similar to that of previous years.

If the guided/outfitter pool is eliminated and replaced with a straight 90/10 split (90% of all tags to a resident-only pool and 10% to a nonresident-only pool), nonresident odds would worsen significantly.

Here’s the exact impact, based on the actual 2026 draw numbers and the assumption that everyone who applied in the guided pool simply reapplies in their correct residency category (guided nonresidents move to the new nonresident pool; guided residents move to the new resident pool):

• Current situation (2026 actual results)Total tags issued: 60,719Nonresidents actually drew: 9,059 tags (≈14.92% of total)→ This came from the 6% DIY nonresident pool (≈3,643 tags) + the portion of the 10% guided pool that went to nonresidents (≈5,416 tags).
• New 90/10 structureResident pool: 90% = 54,647 tagsNonresident pool: 10% = 6,072 tags
• Key point: The total number of nonresident applicants does not change under your assumption. All previous nonresident applicants (DIY + guided) would now compete together in the single 10% nonresident pool.

Result for nonresidents:They would receive only 6,072 tags instead of 9,059 while facing the same number of applicants.

Their overall success rate (odds) would therefore drop to ≈67% of current odds (a reduction of about 33%). Exact calculation:6,072 ÷ 9,059 ≈ 0.670 (or 67.0%).

This is an overall average across the entire big-game draw.

• On popular species like elk and deer, where the guided pool is used almost exclusively by nonresidents, the drop would be very close to this 33% reduction.
• On species like bighorn sheep (where more residents use the guided pool), the impact on nonresidents would be slightly less severe, but still a net loss of tags.

In short: Nonresidents would be competing for roughly one-third fewer tags in a single larger pool, making every hunt code noticeably harder to draw. Residents, by contrast, would see their pool grow from ~85% to 90% of tags, improving their overall odds.

Absolutely. If NM residents want to get rid of the outfitter draw that is 100% their prerogative. But spinning it as somehow benefiting NR DIY hunters just doesn’t seem to bear out when you run the numbers with most NRs from the guided draw jumping over into the combined NR pool.

And I also have a hard time believing this myth that it’s so difficult for NM residents to draw tags. Like many things, I suppose it depends on what you apply for. If you are in for the Gila and Valle Vidal every year you probably won’t draw many elk tags.

 

[Chingon]

Absolutely. If NM residents want to get rid of the outfitter draw that is 100% their prerogative. But spinning it as somehow benefiting NR DIY hunters just doesn’t seem to bear out when you run the numbers with most NRs from the guided draw jumping over into the combined NR pool.

And I also have a hard time believing this myth that it’s so difficult for NM residents to draw tags. Like many things, I suppose it depends on what you apply for. If you are in for the Gila and Valle Vidal every year you probably won’t draw many elk tags.

That math has some faulty assumptions. First, key word is DIY. DIY NR's will have more tags, period. Guided NR's will battle for less total NR, true. Also, the assumption that total NR applications will be the same is faulty IMO. Many people apply for the outfitter tags with cheap "barely legal" outfitter agreements just to get in that pool. If that goes away, so do some of the applicants.

Guys that can afford a guide are more likely to also afford a landowner tag. If some outfitters don't add much value beyond the draw odds bump, they should go away. That will also free up landowner tags that are often sold straight to outfitters and might make that market more competitive.

Good, honest outfitters that add value will make it. Shady, wellfare-based outfitters will go away. There will be MORE DIY NR hunters. Residents will see a negligible bump. LO tags may get a little cheaper. I'm good with that.

 

[Valley1320]

That math has some faulty assumptions. First, key word is DIY. DIY NR's will have more tags, period. Guided NR's will battle for less total NR, true. Also, the assumption that total NR applications will be the same is faulty IMO. Many people apply for the outfitter tags with cheap "barely legal" outfitter agreements just to get in that pool. If that goes away, so do some of the applicants.

Guys that can afford a guide are more likely to also afford a landowner tag. If some outfitters don't add much value beyond the draw odds bump, they should go away. That will also free up landowner tags that are often sold straight to outfitters and might make that market more competitive.

Good, honest outfitters that add value will make it. Shady, wellfare-based outfitters will go away. There will be MORE DIY NR hunters. Residents will see a negligible bump. LO tags may get a little cheaper. I'm good with that.

This!

 

[bayoublaster7527]

That math has some faulty assumptions. First, key word is DIY. DIY NR's will have more tags, period. Guided NR's will battle for less total NR, true. Also, the assumption that total NR applications will be the same is faulty IMO. Many people apply for the outfitter tags with cheap "barely legal" outfitter agreements just to get in that pool. If that goes away, so do some of the applicants.

Guys that can afford a guide are more likely to also afford a landowner tag. If some outfitters don't add much value beyond the draw odds bump, they should go away. That will also free up landowner tags that are often sold straight to outfitters and might make that market more competitive.

Good, honest outfitters that add value will make it. Shady, wellfare-based outfitters will go away. There will be MORE DIY NR hunters. Residents will see a negligible bump. LO tags may get a little cheaper. I'm good with that.

Yes, the total number of tags available to DIY NR hunters will increase. But if even more people apply the draw odds won’t increase. I guess where we differ is you believe that NRs who previous applied in the Guided draw will not continue to apply in the combined NR pool. They will just forgo NM completely or purchase landowner tags. I don’t really buy that but I suppose it is possible. I just don’t think enough Guided draw NRs are gonna completely dip out to really increase DIY NR odds compared to previously. NR tag applications continue to increase in most western states, despite decreasing odds and increased tag/app fees. However, the Guided NRs will see a decrease in their odds, as you stated.

I agree, the good outfitters will absolutely survive. Demand will still be there.

 

[noharleyyet]

Yes, the total number of tags available to DIY NR hunters will increase. But if even more people apply the draw odds won’t increase. I guess where we differ is you believe that NRs who previous applied in the Guided draw will not continue to apply in the combined NR pool. They will just forgo NM completely or purchase landowner tags. I don’t really buy that but I suppose it is possible. I just don’t think enough Guided draw NRs are gonna completely dip out to really increase DIY NR odds compared to previously. NR tag applications continue to increase in most western states, despite decreasing odds and increased tag/app fees. However, the Guided NRs will see a decrease in their odds, as you stated.

I agree, the good outfitters will absolutely survive. Demand will still be there.

yep...dollar bill dollar bill

 

[seeth07]

NR tag applications continue to increase in most western states

You sure about that? Show your math/research.

Since about 2023, most draws have now leveled off from the pre-Covid social media driven boom as well as the Covid instant boost.

I'll show you one example of mine and as you can see, it has remained pretty consistent since 2021.
NM 2019 total elk first choice selections = 78,292
NM 2020 total elk first choice selections = 81,333
NM 2021 total elk first choice selections = 101,779
NM 2022 total elk first choice selections = 98,905
NM 2023 total elk first choice selections = 102,195
NM 2024 total elk first choice selections = 101,293
NM 2025 total elk first choice selections = 102,653

 

[huntandfly]

Also, the assumption that total NR applications will be the same is faulty IMO. Many people apply for the outfitter tags with cheap "barely legal" outfitter agreements just to get in that pool. If that goes away, so do some of the applicants.

I agree with some of what you said, but this part doesn’t make a lot of sense to me. The people that were signing “state minimum” guide contracts are mostly DIY hunters that just wanted the better odds in NM. I think it’s much more likely they will happily just rejoin the combined NR pool rather than completely give up. New Mexico’s value proposition remains very attractive for NRs due to the random draw and high quality hunts.

 

[seeth07]

The people that were signing “state minimum” guide contracts are mostly DIY hunters that just wanted the better odds in NM.

If you call around to some outfitters, there are some that will charge you to just use them to get into the draw and not use them if you draw.

 

[huntandfly]

If you call around to some outfitters, there are some that will charge you to just use them to get into the draw and not use them if you draw.

I think that might be illegal

 

[bayoublaster7527]

You sure about that? Show your math/research.

Since about 2023, most draws have now leveled off from the pre-Covid social media driven boom as well as the Covid instant boost.

I'll show you one example of mine and as you can see, it has remained pretty consistent since 2021.
NM 2019 total elk first choice selections = 78,292
NM 2020 total elk first choice selections = 81,333
NM 2021 total elk first choice selections = 101,779
NM 2022 total elk first choice selections = 98,905
NM 2023 total elk first choice selections = 102,195
NM 2024 total elk first choice selections = 101,293
NM 2025 total elk first choice selections = 102,653

That’s weird, I’m just a product of southern public school education but 102k is more than 78k. So if we limit our sample size to three years then we have effectively proven applications aren’t increasing?

And my more broader point was that the folks in the Guided draw aren’t just going to bow out of the NM draw. So any increase in tags for DIY NR applicants will likely be cancelled out by increased applicants. But I guess we will have to wait and see.