New Mexico Outfitter Draw Set-Aside is Toast -Finally !

[npaden]

This isn't a done deal. It's a request by some legislators.

In all likelihood the lumping of bighorn codes is going to be the only change as a result of this, just like the rounding change forced through. The outfitter set aside has been challenged before and wasn't knocked out.

Basically this is just going to end the chance of any nonresident drawing a bighorn sheep tag in New Mexico guided or unguided.

 

[cgasner1]

This isn't a done deal. It's a request by some legislators.

In all likelihood the lumping of bighorn codes is going to be the only change as a result of this, just like the rounding change forced through. The outfitter set aside has been challenged before and wasn't knocked out.

Basically this is just going to end the chance of any nonresident drawing a bighorn sheep tag in New Mexico guided or unguided.

It seems like the state is trying to increase residents draw odds but not willing to do what it would take to increase residents draw odds. But in these types of situations any small win is a giant victory

 

[npaden]

It seems like the state is trying to increase residents draw odds but not willing to do what it would take to increase residents draw odds. But in these types of situations any small win is a giant victory

Based on last year and doing a rough calculation because they have the 1st and 2nd choice that both really gets a chance it means that the 4 nonresident bighorn tags given last year (1 to nonguided and 3 to guided) will go to zero. The odds for those were .04% and .09%. 1 in 2,669 and 3 in 3,417.

Moving those to the residents will increase their odds from .29% (already 3 times better than the outfitter pool and 7 times better than the nonguided pool) to a whopping .33%! 24 in 8,387 to 28 in 8,387.

For desert is was pretty similar except somehow they gave 2 tags to unguided and 2 tags to the outfitter pool. Odds were .08% and .06%. 2 in 2,550 and 2 in 3,379. Residents would go from .28% to .34%. 21 in 7,444 to 25 in 7,444.

We are all really kidding ourselves to think we are ever going to draw one of these tags but I guess someone has too!

 

[5yearcoueshunter]

If they change to 90/10, it will not be a big change to draw odds but will make the system more fair in most people's eyes and definitely provide net tags to both residents and diy NR. As mentioned, there a lot of Pronghorn hunts with 10 tags and thus the diy NR didn't even have a chance at a tag. With this change they would. In the 2025 draw, it would have moved 2,280 tags from the guided pool to Resident and 1,491 to the NR pool. As mentioned, if everyone in the guided pool still applied in the other pools, draw odds would go up for Residents, down for Non Residents. Either way, I think this is a win for residents for sure and the right thing to do IMO. This letter doesn't mean anything is changed yet, but looking good.

 

[gonhunting247]

90/10 split without guide/outfitter set asides would be great for residents and make the NR pool fair across the board, whether the odds were better or worse for NR we would just have to see. As a NR DIY guy, this would be what I'd like to see anyway!

 

[Nick87]

while the NM outfitter lobby isnt big i bet they are about to spend a lot of $ fighting this or finding alternative

My first thought as well. They're not going to just take that laying down.

 

[brownbear932008]

My first thought as well. They're not going to just take that laying down.

No they are not which is why this post title is highly misleading. You can bet many of those outfitters/ranchers have the ear of their local congressman.

 

[Valley1320]

My first thought as well. They're not going to just take that laying down.

The whining on Facebook is hilarious

 

[5yearcoueshunter]

No they are not which is why this post title is highly misleading. You can bet many of those outfitters/ranchers have the ear of their local congressman.

I'm pretty ignorant of how this stuff works. But from my understanding if the AG comes back that the outfitter pool violates the law, then the legislature will have to change it to be in compliance or it will end up in court and will most likely get shut down there. So either way, pretty sure change is coming if the AG comes back with that opinion.

 

[brownbear932008]

I'm pretty ignorant of how this stuff works. But from my understanding if the AG comes back that the outfitter pool violates the law, then the legislature will have to change it to be in compliance or it will end up in court and will most likely get shut down there. So either way, pretty sure change is coming if the AG comes back with that opinion.

They call it an opinion for a reason. It's just that and they are not binding.

 

[5yearcoueshunter]

They call it an opinion for a reason. It's just that and they are not binding.

True, but coming from the AG carries quite a bit of weight I would think in the courts. That and the fact that it's a democrat AG with a super majority democrat legislature and a democrat NM governor makes it more likely his opinion would prevail whichever way he goes. I guess we'll find out.

 

[brownbear932008]

True, but coming from the AG carries quite a bit of weight I would think in the courts. That and the fact that it's a democrat AG with a super majority democrat legislature and a democrat NM governor makes it more likely his opinion would prevail whichever way he goes. I guess we'll find out.

That is possible, it is also possible connected people start throwing money and influence around. It will all boil down to a big political game in the end sadly. Best thing residents can do is speak up and show up in a big way to possibly prevent that.

 

[WapitiBob]

It’ll be nice if the AG rules on the anti donation clause and puts an end to the speculation.

 

[bayoublaster7527]

My first thought as well. They're not going to just take that laying down.

Yeah will be interesting to see. I suspect their influence might be waning. They were unable to get an outfitter seat on the commission with SB-5. Left on the outside looking in after NMWF struck a partnership with Wildlife For All.

 

[Benfromalbuquerque]

Raul Torrez was the municipal attorney for Albuquerque prior to assuming State AG. This man does not take action without purpose. Torrez will likely land in the graces of our next governor if he’s not the gubernatorial elect himself. In these times when inflation is nuts and people distrust their government, corporate welfare at the expense of citizens is an easy target with high PR value.

 

[BrokenArrow]

So, how do you residents feel this will impact poaching?
I have seen and talked with many residents who just go ahead and do it. I am not one to trust our government, but I do adhere to moral standards like telling the truth and have never and will not poach. Nor do I steal or lie.
It seems to me that folks will continue to just do the bad things I have heard about for the last 20 years hunting NM. if someone is hurting and hungry, I get it. What enforcement is there anyway?

 

[Benfromalbuquerque]

So, how do you residents feel this will impact poaching?
I have seen and talked with many residents who just go ahead and do it. I am not one to trust our government, but I do adhere to moral standards like telling the truth and have never and will not poach. Nor do I steal or lie.
It seems to me that folks will continue to just do the bad things I have heard about for the last 20 years hunting NM. if someone is hurting and hungry, I get it. What enforcement is there anyway?

No telling about no outfitter tags reducing outfitter poaching just yet. I want to think there are more honorable poachers who would rather not bring clients down with them.
The reality is that if an illegitimate “outfitting/guiding” operation does this they are looking at: five years individual license suspension, $thousands in fine, maybe probation. Now you compare that against $15k/client and no, there will still be wildcat outfitters.

On the other hand, one of the most compelling arguments for landowner tags was from a son of a San Miguel County rancher. Shit soil with predators, extreme weather, competition from ungulates makes it tough to maintain a cattle operation. The landowners will manage the elk with or without State approval so at least the tags provide financial relief and less elk. I still don’t savvy to that, but it’s a solid argument.

 

[CMF]

And, yeah, while it probably doesn’t move the needle for NR draw odds, it may add some tags where the rounding rules currently don’t allow for a nonguided NR tag. Haven’t done the math, but I suspect that will also be a perk in some select instances.

You guys really need to do the math before you get excited about this as a NR. It definitely moves the needle in. In the wrong direction.
This will absolutely hurt DIY NR odds. Of the 10% outfitter pool, 90% of those apps are non-residents. Meaning right now, about 15% of the tags go to NR. If the NR from the outfitter pool moves to the DIY pool, and the total NR pool is reduced to 10%, It's not going to be good for NR draw odds.

I don't blame the residents for pushing this, but don't be fooled by the ones saying this is a win for non-residents.

It sounds good on the surface, but it doesn't math out. You would actually see a decline in odds..
At least, with some basic assumptions that:
If the guide pool goes away, those people still apply in either the r or nr pool
The data stays similar to that of previous years.

If the guided/outfitter pool is eliminated and replaced with a straight 90/10 split (90% of all tags to a resident-only pool and 10% to a nonresident-only pool), nonresident odds would worsen significantly.

Here’s the exact impact, based on the actual 2026 draw numbers and the assumption that everyone who applied in the guided pool simply reapplies in their correct residency category (guided nonresidents move to the new nonresident pool; guided residents move to the new resident pool):

• Current situation (2026 actual results)Total tags issued: 60,719Nonresidents actually drew: 9,059 tags (≈14.92% of total)→ This came from the 6% DIY nonresident pool (≈3,643 tags) + the portion of the 10% guided pool that went to nonresidents (≈5,416 tags).
• New 90/10 structureResident pool: 90% = 54,647 tagsNonresident pool: 10% = 6,072 tags
• Key point: The total number of nonresident applicants does not change under your assumption. All previous nonresident applicants (DIY + guided) would now compete together in the single 10% nonresident pool.

Result for nonresidents:They would receive only 6,072 tags instead of 9,059 while facing the same number of applicants.

Their overall success rate (odds) would therefore drop to ≈67% of current odds (a reduction of about 33%). Exact calculation:6,072 ÷ 9,059 ≈ 0.670 (or 67.0%).

This is an overall average across the entire big-game draw.

• On popular species like elk and deer, where the guided pool is used almost exclusively by nonresidents, the drop would be very close to this 33% reduction.
• On species like bighorn sheep (where more residents use the guided pool), the impact on nonresidents would be slightly less severe, but still a net loss of tags.

In short: Nonresidents would be competing for roughly one-third fewer tags in a single larger pool, making every hunt code noticeably harder to draw. Residents, by contrast, would see their pool grow from ~85% to 90% of tags, improving their overall odds.

 

[CMF]

On a side note lots of New Mexicans also need to learn how the draw works. Speaking with a few co-workers who are the population who haven’t drawn an elk tag in 10 years. Their 3rd choice doesn’t break 10% draw odd. ( on 2nd thought, maybe thru just keep doing what they have been doing) I would feel bad for you non-residents but then again I’m a non resident in 49 other stated

You're right, and those are the same guys who think this is going to solve their problem. What is going to be their solution when this ~6% increase in tags doesn't result in them getting a gila elk tag every year?

 

[WapitiBob]

You guys really need to do the math before you get excited about this as a NR. It definitely moves the needle in. In the wrong direction.
This will absolutely hurt DIY NR odds. Of the 10% outfitter pool, 90% of those apps are non-residents. Meaning right now, about 15% of the tags go to NR. If the NR from the outfitter pool moves to the DIY pool, and the total NR pool is reduced to 10%, It's not going to be good for NR draw odds.

I wouldn't get too excited until the AG rules the outfitter tags violate the anti-donation clause or you see some Legislation.