MT proposed season changes

[belly-deep]

Secondly when Resident applicants outnumber Nonresident applicants to the tune of 5,376 to 672...there is no way NR's have an equal chance. Put 5,376 red beans in a sack along with 672 blue ones. Draw 100 beans from the sack and tell me how often you draw 50 red and 50 blue...

You are correct in that statement.

But that scenario does NOT accurately represent the draw in 270.

To accurately represent what is going on, you would need to put 6048 beas in a sack with the "resident" beans numbered 1 - 5,376 and the "non-resident" beans numbered 5,377 - 6,048.

When you picked out the first bean, you would have an equal chance of picking any bean from 1 to 6,048. So on and so forth until the 100th (or 85th) bean is chosen. That is why I keep stating the residents and non residents have an equal chance drawing as long as the NR cap of 10 tags is not met. When that quota is met, then the remaining beans numbered 5,377 - 6,048 are taken out and the remaining "resident" beans have 662 less beans to compete with.

What you are trying to demonstrate with the colored bean scenario is exactly what I have said--non residents will have a better chance drawing as a group with 10 guaranteed tags. But that doesn't help you draw.

Seriously Buzz, go run this by a stats teacher. I was in college just a couple years ago...you've been away from the books for a while.

 

[BuzzH]

Doesnt matter what the numbers are...theres still an 8:1 (5,376:672)chance that any number picked in the entire draw sequence from the first through the 100th will be a resident number. Like I've said, the only way the odds of the first draw being an equal chance to residents and non-residents is if there were the same number of resident and non-resident applicants(5,376 of each resident and non-resident). There is no way that numbers 1-672 are going to be drawn more than 673-6048 in a random draw...in fact the odds are 8:1 that any random number picked is going to be between 673-6048.

Dont ignore bonus points either...that just decreases nonresident odd even more.

Tell you what, if you're so sure that residents and non residents have equal odds in the draw...lets start from 2006 in unit 270 for every year the NR cap is met...I'll give you a $100. For every year its not...you give me a $100. So far, you owe me $300.

Its been a while since I was in school...but I didnt sleep through it when I went.

Get a refund...

 

[belly-deep]

belly-deep,

If you can explain this...I'll listen. When Resident applicants outnumber NR applicants 8 to 1...how do you come up with both residents and non residents having the same draw odds? NR's are behind the curve from the get-go...in particular when we apply bonus points to the system. Beings how most NR's only have a point or two, and a majority of the residents have MAX points the total number of "chances" that the Residents have compared to that of the Non-Residents, the gap is even greater.

As far as the residents and non residents having the same draw odds, see the bean explaination I just wrote up. It explains it perfectly. The caveat that I keep repeating is that my math only works when the NR quota is not met...and in the years we have data for, it was not met, and so I believe it is an accurate representation.

As far as the bonus points, go a "majority" of residents DON'T have max points...

Here is the BP break down for 2008 in 270.

(point number, number of people holding points)

Resident:
doesn't participate in bp, 795
0, 1236
1, 904
2, 852
3, 624
4, 514
5, 451

As you can see, it is nearly opposite of what you suggested. You said a majority of residents hold max points. I have no idea as to what the numbers are statewide (I couldn't find the stats on that) but I would guess that the most difficult to draw unit in the state would have the highest proportion of max point holders...and it doesn't.

Now for the non residents:
doesn't participate in bp, 273
0, 204
1, 86
2, 55
3, 28
4, 15
5, 11

And non residents are show a point holding pattern that is roughly the same as residents, with a majority of point holders having 0, 1, and 2 bonus points.

Now lets look at the draw odds with the points. Remember, MT's BP system isn't as strict as other states so people the people with the highest points don't always draw the most tags in any given season. But over the course of time, MT's BP do give you better draw odds as a general rule.

For those that don't participate in the BP system in 2008:
Residents: .38%
Non Residents: 0%

For those with participating in the BP system (but have 0 points):
Residents: .49%
Non Residents: .49%

For those with 1 BP:
Residents: .88%
Non Residents: 1.16%

For those with 2 BP:
Residents: 2%
Non Residents: 0%

For those with 3 BP:
Residents: 3.04%
Non Residents: 3.57%

For those with 4 BP:
Residents: 2.72%
Non Residents: 0%

For those with 5 BP:
Residents: 3.33%
Non Residents: 0%

Now Buzz, you'll probably point out that those non residents with 2, 4, and 5 BP had a 0% success rate. That is true for 2008 only!!! I mentioned above that MT doesn't have a strict of a BP system as other states, and so that is why 2, 4, and 5 point holders didn't draw in 2008. But look what they did in 2007 and 2006 when compared to resident tag applicants:

2007 (4 pts was the max):
Residents: 2.66%
Non Residents: 7.14%

2006 (3 pts was the max):
Residents: 3.42%
Non Residents: 0%

Obviously, lady luck has alot to do with the MT draw. In 2008, the NR applicants holding 1 and 3 bonus points did better than the residents holding equal numbers of points!!! Those with 0 points had an equal chance as the residents. And the year before, the NR max point holders had double the draw odds as the resident max point holders.

I don't see how you are "suffering" as a non resident in the MT draw. We all suffer year to year because of how the point system works. Some years the NR applicants with a certain number of points will come out with better odds, and some years it will be the residents.

 

[belly-deep]

Doesnt matter what the numbers are...theres still an 8:1 (5,376:672)chance that any number picked in the entire draw sequence from the first through the 100th will be a resident number.

Buzz, you are missing the big picture here.

You need to get deeper than the knee-jerk reaction of non-residents getting 10 guaranteed tags every year.

For you, BuzzH, the only draw odds that really matter are the individual draw odds. And on the individual level (I'll repeat myself once again) your odds are the exact same as mine as long as the non resident quote is not filled. And it hasn't been filled in the last 3 years.

If you don't draw a tag, then what does it matter if it is a resident or a non resident that draws the tag you didn't get? You aren't the one hunting deer in 270, no matter if someone from Missoula is or if someone from Houston is. What does, or at least should matter to you, is that your draw odds will go down if the date is moved.

I can explain that in text since you aren't grasping the mathematical explaination of it.

Stated simply, there is a lower ratio of tags to applicants in the non resident draw if the date is moved. The resident draw has a higher ratio of tags to applicants than the non resident draw, and so by putting the two in the same draw pool, the resident pool--because it is larger in sheer numbers (but not in proportion)--absorbs the (relatively) high number of non resident applicants and improves the draw odds with one exception.

That exception is the statistical anomoly of 10 non residents drawing early in the draw. That would shut the draw down for the remaining non residents, but as we have seen in the last three years, that hasn't happened.

 

[BuzzH]

belly-deep,

Are you going to take the bet or not?

Further...if you're so sure that NR's as a group have equal odds as Residents why has the 10% cap not been reached in the last 3 years? Is that bad luck or just the fact that theres 8 times as many residents in the draw?

So, If I'm following your logic...if NR's hold numbers 1-672 (group a) and Residents hold numbers 673-6048 (group b), you're going to tell me that any random numbers pulled from a hat are equally as likely to come from group a as group b??? Dont think so, and Vegas wouldnt give you equal odds.

Think logically, which group is more likely to be represented by a single random number draw? No question where my money would be.

As far as bonus points go, that only decreases the NR's odds even more. Assuming your name goes in the hat one more time per point...Residents would have 13,886 numbers. Non-residents would have 790 numbers.

So, numbers 1-790 are all assigned to Non-residents(group a again) and residents have 791-14,676 (group b).

The chances of any random number drawn from a hat are nearly 19 times more likely to come from group b than a.

Again, you're trying to blame "bad luck" on the fact that the NR cap is not reached, how bout 19x more resident chances than non-resident...that wouldnt have a thing to do with it.

Further, if it doesnt really effect the odds that much, and the guaranteed tags would really give NR's a WORSE chance at drawing...why, as a resident, would you not push for it?

Seems odd that you'd fight a proposal that wouldnt really make any difference (according to you).

 

[Lawnboy]

This reminds me of why I can't stand to attend the FWP public comment meetings. Some clueless idiots bitching about loosing a fraction of a percentage of special draw tags to non-residents, bitching about a $5 dollar increase in license fees to residents, or whining about legal statutes that have been in place for decades, when going over a set agenda in a room full of a couple hundred people.

If I remember right it was the half hour endless questions and comments about landowner preference that sent you over the edge

 

[Point Creep]

I wonder how comments are weighed. On-line is way less painful. My hats off to the many who endure those meetings on a regular basis as a part of their profession or the organizations they represent.

Last time I went to one, I remember this dude with a permed mullet that stood up to comment. He stated his name, where he lived and for how long, and how many pope & young/boone & crockett recrod animals he'd taken.. before making his comment. It was a gut-buster.

 

[drahthaar]

I wonder how comments are weighed. On-line is way less painful. My hats off to the many who endure those meetings on a regular basis as a part of their profession or the organizations they represent.

Last time I went to one, I remember this dude with a permed mullet that stood up to comment. He stated his name, where he lived and for how long, and how many pope & young/boone & crockett recrod animals he'd taken.. before making his comment. It was a gut-buster.

How are they weighed? That is a good question. Are they weighed at all? Or are these meetings just a dog and pony show?

I do feel for all involved, those there with some good comments/ideas based on good information, then like greenhorn said, the permed mullet guy who gets up and comments on every section of agenda. Oh my.

On my way through one of the checkstations this year after three days of failing miserably to score a wolf, even to lay eyes on one, I asked the guy at the checkstation if anybody brought a wolf through, he said no, but one guy said he counted 35 wolves just driving from Whitefish to Red Meadow and down to Hwy 93. I wonder if he had a permed mullet.

 

[belly-deep]

Good lord. I think we already covered some of this. I'm beginning to think you like to argue just to argue.

belly-deep,

Are you going to take the bet or not?

Am I going to bet on a historical event that is already over? Where we both know the outcome and that outcome results in me giving you $300 with no chance of me winning any money....what do you think, Buzz?

Further...if you're so sure that NR's as a group have equal odds as Residents why has the 10% cap not been reached in the last 3 years? Is that bad luck or just the fact that theres 8 times as many residents in the draw?

Buzz, I've already explained this in post 74,

Am I crazy or are the numbers better for you when the draw is left as it is? Sure Buzz, if they change it around NRs will draw more tags...but the drawing won't get any easier for you, just non-residents as a group.

I said it again in post 77

changing the draw date helps non residents as a whole but hurts non residents as individuals.

Once more in 81

What you are trying to demonstrate with the colored bean scenario is exactly what I have said--non residents will have a better chance drawing as a group with 10 guaranteed tags. But that doesn't help you draw.

Buzz, as you can see, I've said all along that non-residents as a group will do better if the draw changes...read my posts twice if you have to before you respond so that you can stay on topic.

So, If I'm following your logic...if NR's hold numbers 1-672 (group a) and Residents hold numbers 673-6048 (group b), you're going to tell me that any random numbers pulled from a hat are equally as likely to come from group a as group b??? Dont think so, and Vegas wouldnt give you equal odds.

Once again Buzz, we already went over this one. It was late last night, so I will give you a pass.

I never said you are equally as likely to draw from each group.
I'll try to explain it again as to how you and I have equal draw odds:

You have a bean. I have a bean. Everyone in the draw has a bean.
When the first bean is chosen, it is just as likely that it will be your bean as mine. Right? And for the second drawing, we again have equal chances that our beans will be drawn. And so, for the 10th time, as long as the NR quota is not met (because it would throw all NRs out of the rest of the draw) early in the draw, we are all in the same drawing pool and have the same chances of being drawn.

As far as bonus points go, that only decreases the NR's odds even more. Assuming your name goes in the hat one more time per point...Residents would have 13,886 numbers. Non-residents would have 790 numbers.

I don't know how you got those numbers. You wouldn't be fudging them a bit to advance your argument, would you Buzz? The difference in my numbers is less dramatic.

I got the numbers in post 83 right from the FWP stats and they come out like this:

795+1236+904+(852X2)+(624X3)+(514X4)+(451X5) =10822
273+204+86+(2X55)+(3X28)+(4X15)+(5X11) = 872

That is for bonus points only.

So NR hold 8% of the bonus points in the 270 draw that residents do.

And the make up 12.5% of the applicants in the 270 draw.

There is a 4.5% difference there...probably because of hunters who put in for the deer only tag.

Further, if it doesnt really effect the odds that much, and the guaranteed tags would really give NR's a WORSE chance at drawing...why, as a resident, would you not push for it?

Seems odd that you'd fight a proposal that wouldnt really make any difference (according to you).

That is simple. It drops my draw odds too.

Have a nice day

 

[Point Creep]

make it stop

 

[shoots-straight]

AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!! Ok, I feel better now. I"m going to go eat a bean.

 

[Lawnboy]

I wonder how comments are weighed. On-line is way less painful. My hats off to the many who endure those meetings on a regular basis as a part of their profession or the organizations they represent.

Last time I went to one, I remember this dude with a permed mullet that stood up to comment. He stated his name, where he lived and for how long, and how many pope & young/boone & crockett recrod animals he'd taken.. before making his comment. It was a gut-buster.

Colorado Buck, I bet was him name

 

[BuzzH]

belly-deep,

We can start the bet this year...every year the NR cap is met in deer unit 270 and unit 380-20 for elk, you send me a $100...I'll send you a hundred if they are.

Care to guess who will have the bigger bank account at the end of 10 years?

 

[belly-deep]

belly-deep,

We can start the bet this year...every year the NR cap is met in deer unit 270 and unit 380-20 for elk, you send me a $100...I'll send you a hundred if they are.

Care to guess who will have the bigger bank account at the end of 10 years?

Me. I'll have the biggest bank account in 10 years because I'll be out of law school by then.

 

[BuzzH]

Thank god you're going to be a lawyer and not a book maker.

Oh, and to help you understand where my bonus point discrepency is...you forgot, once again, to include the current years draw, you're short around 3,000 more numbers for the current years draw. In other words, the guys with one point going in this year will have the bonus point number plus the number for this years draw, for a total of 2.

And, I do realize that the odds of drawing any one number are 1:11,694+6,000ish more this year...for a total of 1:18,000 chance of any one number to be drawn.

Those with max points will have a 7:18,0000 chance for one of their numbers to come up...and theres still 20:1 odds in favor of a resident being drawn on each pass VS a Non-resident number.

 

[belly-deep]

Oh man, its going to be a long winter...

 

[BuzzH]

Only one way to ensure the 10% NR quota is met... and hopefully it passes, mainly because you dont want it to.

 

[mtmiller]

Fellas.....breaktime.

 

[Lawnboy]

As my ol coach used to say "Save it for the game"

 

[sweetnectar]

If a rule is made that states 10% of the tags are reserved for NR then the only way to statistically accomplish it is to take 10% of the tags issued for each area and have only NRs competing for the 10%tags reserved for NRs. What is Caesar's is Caesar's or what is NR is NR or what is landowner's is landowner's...