MT- M/S/G results 26

[Beignet]

I’m guessing it’s a little what gambling feels like, but when I see unsuccessful my first reaction is to log back in and apply for the next thing immediately. Like “No good deer/elk tag, all in on M/S/G. Nada, let’s throw the deed down for deer B cause baby needs a new pair of shoes!”

 

[Forkyfinder]

Ok, I see what you're doing there. So if that's true, a lot of hunts would be better for even the top point holders if there was no point system. lol

Actual Moose hunt in MT: 12 permits
Applicants: 978
12/978 = 1.2% draw odds (no points)

25 point holder - 626 squared points (chances)
Total squared points from all applicants - 65,238
626/65,238 = .96%

Lol thats grade A buzzard math....


Notice how the bonus points math is entirely missing the quantity of permits? Just need to multiply by tags.... 0.96 × 12 = 11.5%.

Yes this is ignoring the loss of bonus points as the draw continues - but that only helps the point im making. Theoretically the odds of the "second" permit will be better, because some bonus points/applicants are gone after each time someone draws. But with small tag numbers and the high applicant count its not a crazy assumption, even if a lot of bonus points disappear. Ie - a 25 point holder draws the first moose tag - then the next tag drawn, for our 25 point holder will have 626/64612 = 0.0968, or .97%.

 

[brownbear932008]

Nailed it!

But yet old guys feel they are entitled to a permit after 65. (Coming from an older guy just not nearly 65) Maine started that junk with residents. I can only imagine folks younger than 65 are having a hard time drawing there now with so few tags.