MT License sales predictions for 2018

[Jesnoc]

Hi all, I think a lot of folks were surprised at last year's early sell out of Big Game Combo and Deer Combo license. Was wondering what everyone has predicted for the 2018 season? Will we se a repeat of last year or do you all think it will trend similarly to that of the 5 or 6 years prior to 2017? Hope everyone is enjoying the New Year.

 

[rmyoung1]

I think they’ll sell out. Folks seems to be getting over the sticker shock that happened when the higher-priced outfitter licenses were eliminated and the cost shot up.

 

[Big Fin]

Given fee increases in other elk states, I suspect Montana will see more demand. Kind of the opposite of what happened when the MT fee increased in 2011 and demand went way down. It is a competitive market among the elk states and pricing surely influences demand.

 

[Western Traveler1]

What Big Fin said. Looking at what happened in Wyoming alone is bound to have an impact. Also Arizona changed their allocation for out of state tags.

 

[LopeHunter]

I never hunted MT for elk and deer but for several years after the price spike MT was my Plan B if got skunked in my other draws or if wanted another hunt. Much like WY NR General tags that could be had as a point-saving 2nd choice, that moment has passed.

 

[Flatrock]

I think the odds will definitely be worse this year. It isn't a sure thing so if a guy is thinking about hunting there, he pretty much has to apply versus just pick it up as a leftover.

 

[WIbiggame]

I know nobody really knows but you guys out there are much closer to the pulse than I am here in WI. But, do you think I should have a backup plan if all I am putting in for Elk Combo no deer? I also put in the draw but have never thought I might not get drawn for elk only.

 

[HighDesertSage]

What Big Fin said. Looking at what happened in Wyoming alone is bound to have an impact. Also Arizona changed their allocation for out of state tags.

What did AZ do? I must be living under a rock.

 

[Western Traveler1]

What did AZ do? I must be living under a rock.

I along with many others used our accumulated points before this new 5/5 spit so I stopped following it. I believe this is now in effect.
Arizona proposed the 10% allocation of Non-resident tags be split 5/5 (Forgive me if I do not state it accurately). 5% Non-resident tags go to the preference point draw and the other 5% of those tags go into the random draw. Good for a non-resident with no points to have an opportunity to draw a trophy area though minimal but bad for someone sitting on many years of points poised to apply for that trophy area that saw their points cut in half. Further I think the 5% of random tags went into a pool along with residents which diminishes the out of state allocation of tags even more.
I'm sure I will be corrected if I have misstated this...

 

[HighDesertSage]

I along with many others used our accumulated points before this new 5/5 spit so I stopped following it. I believe this is now in effect.
Arizona proposed the 10% allocation of Non-resident tags be split 5/5 (Forgive me if I do not state it accurately). 5% Non-resident tags go to the preference point draw and the other 5% of those tags go into the random draw. Good for a non-resident with no points to have an opportunity to draw a trophy area though minimal but bad for someone sitting on many years of points poised to apply for that trophy area that saw their points cut in half. Further I think the 5% of random tags went into a pool along with residents which diminishes the out of state allocation of tags even more.
I'm sure I will be corrected if I have misstated this...

Oh gotcha, I remember this. I was thinking you were referencing something new.

 

[Jesnoc]

I know nobody really knows but you guys out there are much closer to the pulse than I am here in WI. But, do you think I should have a backup plan if all I am putting in for Elk Combo no deer? I also put in the draw but have never thought I might not get drawn for elk only.

Last year the Elk Combo was not sold out in March, and was available after the draw. If I remember correctly I think 400+ still remained after the March 15 drawing results were sent out.

 

[targetpanic]

I believe the deer combo sells out most years. We are planning to hunt MT for deer for the first time this year so we bought a preference point last fall. I'm not sure if it was a waste of $50 or not but I figure it was better to be safe than sorry.

 

[WIbiggame]

Thanks that is what I had thought as well. I am coming out to just chase elk.

 

[antlerradar]

Given fee increases in other elk states, I suspect Montana will see more demand. Kind of the opposite of what happened when the MT fee increased in 2011 and quantity demanded went way down. It is a competitive market among the elk states and pricing surely influences demand.

Fixed it for you