There exists a science-based model to assess the risk of contact between domestic sheep (DS) and bighorn sheep (BHS) when domestics are managed within or adjacent to bighorn habitat. That peer reviewed model was developed jointly by the USFS and BLM using bighorn sheep telemetry data from the Payette NF, which is perhaps the largest set of data for a BHS metapopulation in existence. You can read more about it here:
http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1264&context=usdafsfacpub
http://www.critigen.com/blog/protecting-bighorn-sheep-repeatable-gis-analysis
The model has withstood judicial review:
http://news.wildlife.org/featured/decision-to-remove-sheep-from-national-forest-upheld/
Many BHS advocates are urging the land management agencies to use this model to analyze risk to BHS when making DS management decisions. Despite the fact that the agencies created the Risk of Contact Tool, there is no directive in either agency for managers to use the model at the local level.
I will give a personal example of how, like in the linked article of the original post, managers seem to be stifling staff that want to do the right thing.
A BLM unit in Big Sheep County, AnyWesternState, USA has been working on a Resource Management Plan for the last several years. In late 2012, they began to work on the DS grazing portion of the RMP by creating their own “Probability of Interaction” (POI) model to assess the risk DS pose to the BHS in the BLM unit. While the national Risk of Contact (ROC) tool was nearly finalized, it had not been published yet (Jan. 2013).
The problem was that the POI was largely not based in science, included many very false assumptions, and was not supported by Colorado Parks and Wildlife, BHS advocates or even BLM staff at the State or Washington, DC level. Once the ROC model was published in 2013, all stakeholders on the BHS side asked the BLM to switch models, which they were unwilling to do. The disagreement over use of the POI model continues to date. I was even told by the Field Office Manager over a year ago that if I felt strongly about the issue, that I should attend a Big Sheep County Commissioner’s meeting and explain to the commissioners that I feel like bighorn sheep are more important than a domestic sheep industry in their county.
I attended a BLM kickoff scoping meeting this summer in Big Sheep County for analysis and renewal of many domestic sheep allotments in an adjacent BLM unit to the one mentioned above. Attendees of the meeting were primarily BLM employees, domestic sheep producers, Big Sheep County Commissioners and CPW employees.
After the formal meeting concluded, I had a conversation with the BLM Field Office Manager, and I explained that my concern would be that they use the national ROC model rather than the POI model used in the adjacent BLM unit’s RMP. She replied to me, “I don’t understand that. I don’t understand what the problem is with our local model.”
She said that the ROC model "just produces numbers" which she does not understand and are not defensible. She said that she has been through enough court cases that she now makes sure she can defend an analysis before signing her name to it. She said, "I would rather stand in front of a judge and defend our local model than to defend the [ROC] model." (Keep in mind that the ROC model has already been successfully defended, per the link above.)
She then asked me what I would expect them to do after an analysis using the ROC model. I told her that I would expect them to not graze DS in areas of high risk of contact with BHS. She said, "do you realize that would put every sheep rancher in this room out of business? Is that what you want?"
I told her that I felt the either/or argument was a false choice, and that they should be looking at analysis on a larger scale to find lower risk areas to move DS, look at change in class of livestock, etc. She said, "you expect me to tell these people that they have to move 2 states away if they want to keep raising domestic sheep?"
She then went on to tell me that the domestic sheep industry was much more valuable to Big Sheep County and the region than bighorn sheep: "The sheep industry probably means $1 billion to this region."
Now you tell me...do you think I can ever expect a decision from this BLM office that favors BHS over DS? The deck is stacked against BHS, and nothing will change unless someone is willing to challenge the management decisions being made.