Importance of specific aspect in researching unit

kenton

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I've been stuck at home for the last 10 days with a nasty case of walking pneumonia and I'm not sure if it is the lack of sleep or the medication but a thought popped into my head about what mechanism everyone uses to pick what unit they hunt in. I have an idea about taking all of the statistics of a unit and developing an equation to reduce everything to one number to compare. What I need help with is how to weight each statistic within the equation so here is the scenario: public land hunt for your favorite species. Rank in order (1 high-10 low) what is most important when deciding what unit to hunt. 1) Amount of public access, 2) Animal Population present, 3) Ease of draw, 4) Trophy potential, 5) Hunting pressure, 6) Hunter success, 7) Ease of hunt (topography), 8) Intrinsic value (history with the land, ect.), 9) Distance from home (travel time), 10) Tag Price.

Im asking in very general terms and any help would be greatly appreciated.
 

Nameless Range

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Interesting question. All the lurking variables aside, and considering the fact that these are not independent variables( i.e. Pressure, animal numbers, and topography are intertwined and effect trophy potential) if I were to take a random sample of the hunts I take in a given year there is a high probability I would order the things you listed this way on the majority of those hunts:

1. Ease of draw( the tags I have dictate where I hunt)
2. Hunting pressure
3. Number of animals
4. Intrinsic value
5. Trophy potential(species dependent)
6. Distance from home
7. Access
8.Probability of success
9. Ease of hunt
10. Price(I only hunt on the cheap)
 

npaden

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The ranking of those factors tends to shuffle around a bit for me. Generally probability of success is pretty high up the list though.
 
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I feel like you have to remove ease of draw into its own category based on your season plan, other state possibilities , etc. I usually have that threshold decided before looking at where to hunt within a state. I look at a year where I might have 3 states of applications with 10% odds in each state on a limited entry permit to get about a 1/3 chance of hunting assuming I have only one week to use.

I think the variable you missed is days to harvest, that one is very telling of a lot of other variables.

A state like Colorado or Wyoming I like to do a chart with % success on the y axis and PP's to draw on the X axis then run a linear regression and start figuring out why there are a few outliers.
 
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Pinecricker

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To me its all about the type of terrain and the access. Drawing odds are a fairly useless indicator of the quality of the hunt IMO.
 

Zim

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I've been stuck at home for the last 10 days with a nasty case of walking pneumonia and I'm not sure if it is the lack of sleep or the medication but a thought popped into my head about what mechanism everyone uses to pick what unit they hunt in. I have an idea about taking all of the statistics of a unit and developing an equation to reduce everything to one number to compare. What I need help with is how to weight each statistic within the equation so here is the scenario: public land hunt for your favorite species. Rank in order (1 high-10 low) what is most important when deciding what unit to hunt. 1) Amount of public access, 2) Animal Population present, 3) Ease of draw, 4) Trophy potential, 5) Hunting pressure, 6) Hunter success, 7) Ease of hunt (topography), 8) Intrinsic value (history with the land, ect.), 9) Distance from home (travel time), 10) Tag Price.

Im asking in very general terms and any help would be greatly appreciated.

The #1 thing I consider in selecting what game unit I will apply for appears nowhere on your list of ten.

It is political climate.

Has there been an unethical attorney/legislator crafting legislation to screw me out of my point value? Either by converting my preference points to bonus, watering down my point values with some new draw system scheme, converting my draw tag to auction or raffle, or pandering to constituent whining or payoffs. Whatever he can do to eliminate his problem of dedicated sportsmen who have paid their dues and waited their turn for decades. They want to forget past profits and tap into fresh, free and easy money.

And no I am not joking. I am dead serious. It's sad but true. This is the first thing I consider when strategizing. It was not always the case, but certainly is now. Disagree? History proves my point. These days I'm always reading what is brewing in each state and I try to stay ahead of the game but it is not easy.

Every western state where I apply has devalued my points in the past 20 years. But eastern legislators do it too. One good example was Maine moose. Around 8 years ago legislators destroyed my points by introducing 10 packs of bonus points for $50 that anyone could buy, all they want. 50 or 100 points if you want. It was so radical many guys like me bailed on the system. Myself? I thought about it and deduced this was so outrageous somebody would correct it eventually. Many of my friends quit applying and lost all their points. 3 or 4 years later, Maine legislators changed the rules after pressure from voter constituents. The system was scrapped for residents, and altered for nonresidents into a veteran weighed system partially restoring my point values. Not all, but some. The list of states with no integrity legislators pulling this bullcorn is endless. So I check it closely before considering any hunting unit for the upcoming year. Must be prepared to burn points on a mid-tier unit in favor of getting point value raped the following year. The world is full of crooks. Attorneys being the worst.
 
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kenton

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Well, I don't think I have enough numbers to try but I certainly appreciate the responses.


A state like Colorado or Wyoming I like to do a chart with % success on the y axis and PP's to draw on the X axis then run a linear regression and start figuring out why there are a few outliers.

Just out of curiosity Crusoe, do you always use a linear regression or have you ever tried any parabolic ones. I run a ton of regressions for fantasy football and was surprised at how poor a linear one could be in some situations.
 

izquik72

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Prescott AZ
This is How I would rank the criteria.

First I find a hunt i am interested in.
Then I see if I can even draw it Trophy potential will dicatate my timeline in how long I am willing to wait for a chance.
Then I check for areas that fit that criteria and how much access I will need for DIY.
Everything else jsut falls into place.

public land hunt for your favorite species. Rank in order (1 high-10 low) what is most important when deciding what unit to hunt.

5 1) Amount of public access,
6 2) Animal Population present,
2 3) Ease of draw,
3 4) Trophy potential,
4 5) Hunting pressure,
7 6) Hunter success,
9 7) Ease of hunt (topography),
10 8) Intrinsic value (history with the land, ect.),
1 9) Distance from home (travel time)
8 10) Tag Price.
 
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