I think demand will be strong in that the first draw is in December for all of the out of state hunters, specifically easterners, hoping for a western hunt. For the price of a license, they can apply in the December tag draw and the May tag draw. A lot of hunters will try to grab a safety tag which may be returned if they draw a better tag elsewhere. I don’t know how you’d calculate if the demand last year to this year changes because of the multiple computers used by people. We really don’t know how many people represent the 40k.
My IDFG experience is every time they try to a procedure to limit tag demand for general/ underperforming units, IDFG make the situation worse - capped tags, NR individual units, etc.
May draw demand should go up with the December draw hunters throwing in for another chance.
I have out of state friends contacting me already asking about how the December draw system works and what units to apply.
If I was an out of state hunter wanting an elk tag, I’d apply in December.