ID F&G Survey
- Thread starter smarandr
- Start date
Try not to be a dick and lets just have a discussion k.
My post was not directed towards you. Was just a general post for everyone. I put it out there because so many people talk about general hunts when that wouldnt have any bearing on bonus points, or say they would never draw like with some preference points. just want to see what guys think and what the arguments are for.
i dont want to buy any. i would like to see my unsuccessful application to earn a point. Then have the points squared. What i do know is that i cant draw tags with 25% or even hardly 50% draw odds, and know many guys that draw tags with much less odds often. i know everyone has their version of 'fair' but to me that isnt. I cant guarantee that i would draw some of these tags more with bonus points but i sure would like my odds of drawing something. expecially with good odds of drawing with no points. with bonus points everyone 'EVERYONE' has a chance at drawing but the ones who havent just have a better chance.
I would also like to see longer wait periods as well.
I agree that preference points really push out the odds and no one under the the minimum points has any chance at drawing but thats not what im talking about.
Steelhead
Active member
- Joined
- Dec 28, 2009
- Messages
- 698
I'll let that pass.
You asked for 'valid' arguments after several people in the know made excellent point after excellent point, insinuating that none of them were valid. If you want to have a discussion then discuss some of the very valid points that have already been made. My statement about buying points for 10 years to improve your draw odds by a percent or two was more general.
I'll give you one just for your little old self:
So you would like to restructure the system so that every year you are unsuccessful at drawing your tag you get a point, so that in 10 years your chances of drawing that tag will have gone from 5% with the old system to 7% with the new system, correct?
You want to have a discussion then answer the question or insult me for knowing what I'm talking about again, your choice.
You asked for 'valid' arguments after several people in the know made excellent point after excellent point, insinuating that none of them were valid. If you want to have a discussion then discuss some of the very valid points that have already been made. My statement about buying points for 10 years to improve your draw odds by a percent or two was more general.
I'll give you one just for your little old self:
So you would like to restructure the system so that every year you are unsuccessful at drawing your tag you get a point, so that in 10 years your chances of drawing that tag will have gone from 5% with the old system to 7% with the new system, correct?
You want to have a discussion then answer the question or insult me for knowing what I'm talking about again, your choice.
I didnt address that statement because it has waaaay to many variables and i didnt really understand where you got your numbers from.
if you were to square points just you and me... we both start applying the same year. and you draw the first year. if there is no wait period then the next year i would have 2 points squared=4. you would have 1. i would then have 4 times the chance you would. BUT... you could draw.. then the next year i would have 3 squared =9. i would have 9 times more chance of drawing than you, but you could still draw. and so on...
i guess i dont understand why guys think that the odds get unrealistic with points?? if you talking about hunting the blue chip units which im assuming most of you are... then there is some validity to it. but why should someone be able to come in and have the same odds as some old timer that hasnt ever drawn it and has been applying for 15 years... why should someone that has never applied get an equal chance. or someone that hunted it two years ago, get the same chance. to me that is greed. Im not ignorant to the fact that humans are greedy but on the same token you must understand my point here.
the biggest problem would have to be the new kids coming into play and i have mixed emotions about that. .. and i have an 8 year old some myself... but im 42 and have never hunted a blue chip unit... should my son have the same odds as me. i dont know... parents here in idaho can give their tag to their kids if they so choose or keep it, maybe its up to the parent to choose. Or maybe start out new hunters under the age of 15 with 5 bonus points .... i dont know the answer. i just think we should share the good hunts the best we can.
the biggest problem would have to be the new kids coming into play and i have mixed emotions about that. .. and i have an 8 year old some myself... but im 42 and have never hunted a blue chip unit... should my son have the same odds as me. i dont know... parents here in idaho can give their tag to their kids if they so choose or keep it, maybe its up to the parent to choose. Or maybe start out new hunters under the age of 15 with 5 bonus points .... i dont know the answer. i just think we should share the good hunts the best we can.
WapitiBob
Well-known member
Why is it, nobody uses this same argument for the Lotto?
Good question and maybe they do. who really needs to win the powerball jackpot twice!
My solution to increase odds would be to make the wait period 2 years for deer/elk/antelope and 5 years for trophy species. If you want to further change the odds, make applicants choose only one species for deer/elk/antelope, similar to the trophy draw.
jryoung
Well-known member
Why should a guy who is going to road hunt the unit for two days have the same odds as the guy that is going to scout pre-season and wear his boots thin during the season?
It's the same reason pyramid schemes still exist, it will benefit a few who are in early, but those that come late (our youth hunters and new hunters) will be SOL. To me the greed argument holds more water with those that say they should have favorable odds because they have put in for several years.
smarandr
Well-known member
Perhaps you missed post #16 and the thread it links to?
Steelhead
Active member
- Joined
- Dec 28, 2009
- Messages
- 698
O-Dogg.
The number I use in my post are made up but they're an accurate portrayal of what would happen. FYI, we have the old square em up system in WA and odds are still horrible regardless of how many points you have, while max point holders (20 points) have slightly higher odds by a few % most of the tags go to the middle of the pack (10-15 points) because there are so many more people with those point totals.
i.e. if there are 50 people with 20 points and 1,000 people with 10 points the folks with 10 points have 100,000 chances to draw while the folks with 20 points only have 20,000...
Also you do know that your whole argument for what you want will only work once right? As soon as you build your 12 points and draw your tag you will then go to zero and your draw odds will be terrible for the rest of your life.
The number I use in my post are made up but they're an accurate portrayal of what would happen. FYI, we have the old square em up system in WA and odds are still horrible regardless of how many points you have, while max point holders (20 points) have slightly higher odds by a few % most of the tags go to the middle of the pack (10-15 points) because there are so many more people with those point totals.
i.e. if there are 50 people with 20 points and 1,000 people with 10 points the folks with 10 points have 100,000 chances to draw while the folks with 20 points only have 20,000...
Also you do know that your whole argument for what you want will only work once right? As soon as you build your 12 points and draw your tag you will then go to zero and your draw odds will be terrible for the rest of your life.
k. i see that point... Its not like i have it figured out, but what i do know is that there has to be a way that it could be better. I apply in many of the western states and when i build some points i can actually draw some of the less sought after tags, but here i cant.
i did just read the link in post 16 and i really like that idea of 10% or less draw odds have to wait 10 years.
I dont apply for the hard hunts. like i said before i only apply for the 1in4 maybe 1in5 odds at the worst. do you think that would make it hard to draw for a second time? i dont know but i personally wouldnt think so. what gets screwed up is the ones everyone holds out for. the really good hunts that have terrible odds no matter what. i get that that senario becomes a problem. maybe there should be no points for hunts with odds of less than 10% and points for less??? or maybe you draw a tag with <5%odds and if you draw its once in a lifetime???? i dont know the answer but i know it could be better.
El Jason
Well-known member
The only real way you'll substantially increase draw odds is to reduce the number of applicants or increase the number of permits. As you pointed out, you do this by waiting periods and making people choose.
It ain't rocket science folks. Anyone that thinks they'll get their cake and eat it too by earning points in every category, every year, and it'll pay off in spades someday needs their head examined.
What are some thoughts about the system WY has? I know the odds don't really change (for reasons others have pointed out), but you have a chance of drawing your first year while getting a point each year you don't draw. At least you'd be working to something (which I know may or may not ever work out, considering everyone else who doesn't draw is thinking the same things). I'd be more of a fan of a 50/50 split instead of the 75/25 they do, although it probably wouldn't make a huge difference for odds.
For the record, I'm a fan of no points systems. Being new to the points game, there are plenty of tags I have little to no chance of getting, which obviously sucks. I'm fairly young so I hold onto the hope I outlive everyone else, but maybe I'm just naive!
For the record, I'm a fan of no points systems. Being new to the points game, there are plenty of tags I have little to no chance of getting, which obviously sucks. I'm fairly young so I hold onto the hope I outlive everyone else, but maybe I'm just naive!
WapitiBob
Well-known member
Wait periods don't work as proven by Utah every year. Joe hunter isn't willing to wait the substantial amount of time needed to effectively reduce the applicant pool.
ida homer
Well-known member
On paper it looks good, but now 10 years into the WY point system, they are starting to experience point creep. Every year it gets worse, search "point creep" on these boards. For us late comers, just getting into the game, statistically we will never catch up, nor will anyone that has cashed in their points and is starting over. And just forget about it for the youth.
I received my email survey from IDFG today, everyone make sure to fill it out!
Elkmagnet
Well-known member
Arguing with this would be selfish and futile...
Elkmagnet
Well-known member
We need to increase the waiting period.
